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As they have every week of the BIG Ten this season, the NBC Sports EDGE Analysts are back to serve up their favorite plays for the BigTen.
Their plays may not involve the marquee games or the biggest stars, but they offer value to the sports bettor.
Week 4 Plays:
Illinois @ Wisconsin: Illinois Team Total UNDER 18.5 Points (-125)
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Ohio State is the only team to score more than 17 points on Wisconsin’s defense and that was a road game for the Badgers.
When Cam Ward and Washington State came to Madison, the Badgers did lose but held the Cougars to 17 points. Two weeks later Washington State almost beat Oregon and scored 41 points in that game. Yes, the Badgers’ defense is as advertised.
Illinois’ Chase Brown has 100-plus rushing yards in all four games, but Tommy DeVito has 232 or fewer passing yards versus the Fighting Illini’s three FBS opponents. Wisconsin heLD Brown to 35 rushing yards last season, the second-lowest rushing total since the start of 2021 and DeVito is an upgrade over Artur Sitowkski and Brandon Peters, but not by much.
Wisconsin won 24-0 at Illinois last year and while I expect the Illini to get on the scoreboard, 18.5 points is too much. I expect Illinois to score between 10-17 points in this matchup, so I will fade the Illini offense here Under 18.5 Points down to 17.5.
Michigan at Iowa: Iowa Team Total UNDER 15.5 (-110)
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
The total for this game is 42.5, and the under would probably only hit five or six times if this game were played 10 times. Giving it an implied probability of 55%, at -115, it’s still playable. I would say because Iowa’s team total of under 15.5 points hits six or seven times out of 10, giving it an implied probability of 65%, -110 odds provide the greater value between the two.
The Michigan defense may be the best in college football. They have a PFF defensive grade of 93.1, second behind Iowa. They are sixth in defensive FEI. They play against an Iowa team that has managed a mere five offensive touchdowns this season. Quarterback Spencer Petras, who has a QBR of less than 12, is a big reason for their struggles.
Michigan and Iowa will try to win this game with good defense and a run-first focus on offense. That will shorten the game and give each team fewer possessions. Iowa might not score a touchdown in this game. If you are looking at props, I would take Petras passing yards under 175.
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Michigan State @ Maryland: Maryland +9 1st Half ALT SPREAD
Zachary Kruger (@ZK_FFB)
We can debate until we are blue in the face whether there is such a thing as a moral victory, but Maryland earned my respect in a big way last weekend against Michigan. Facing the No. 4 team in the nation on the road, the Terps covered as 17-point underdogs in the 34-27 loss, putting the Wolverines to the test for a full 60 minutes.
The Terps are 3-1 on the season and 3-1 ATS. After finding a way to hang 27 points on Michigan on the road, I will not rule out an offensive explosion at home against a Spartans defense that has allowed 36.5 points per game against Power Five opponents. Sparty lost a 39-28 road game to Washington in Week 3 and suffered a 34-7 home loss to Minnesota in a game where the Gophers rushed for 240 yards while averaging 5.0 YPC.
Michigan State should have a bit more offensive success this weekend against Maryland, but they will still have to overcome a pass defense that has struggled in recent years. To date, the Spartans rank 114th in success rate against the pass (49.6%) and are allowing the 29th-most passing yards per game (265.3).
Despite the loss last week, Maryland made a statement showing against the Wolverines. Now in search of their first conference win of the season, I like the Terps to make some noise against a Michigan State team that put a 40-21 beat down on them last season. Juicing this line to +9 gets us in plus money (+100). After betting against the Terps last week, it is safe to say they have made a believer out of me — for now.
Nebraska vs. Indiana: Anthony Grant, RB – UNDER 100.5 Rush Yards
Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
Grant took the reins of the Nebraska backfield in Week 1, rushing 17 times for 95 yards and two touchdowns in a tough loss to Northwestern. He followed that up with 23 carries for 189 yards against North Dakota and 27 for 138 yards in a huge upset loss to Georgia Southern after which HC Scott Frost was promptly fired. In the following game against Oklahoma, with former Pitt OC and pass-happy OC Mark Whipple calling plays, Grant received 13 of the 35 running back carries (37%) and gained 36 yards which was third most in the contest for the Cornhuskers. For their part, Indiana is allowing a very respectable 3.6 YPC thus far, which is right on par with Oklahoma’s 3.5 YPC mark. With a new regime calling plays following Frost’s ouster, the depth chart and game script are assuredly going to be completely different than from the first three games. Grant’s spot among a three-way halfback split on the depth chart is not stable, and with his line a sky-high 100.5 rushing yards we have a classic Under scenario staring us in the face.
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat!
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