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Last weekend we got a taste of Big Ten football as Northwestern upsetting Nebraska in Dublin, Ireland and Illinois waxing Wyoming. This weekend the rest of the conference kicks off and the team of NBC Sports EDGE College Football analysts kick their coverage of The Big Ten into high gear. Every week of the season, NBC Sports EDGE Analysts will serve up their favorite plays for the conference. They will offer a top play in a variety of markets including side, total, derivative market, and even the top prop available in a Big Ten game.
Before diving into Week 1, let’s take a look at the Futures Market in the Big Ten. The consensus among the books and betting public is that the Buckeyes of Ohio State are again the clear class of the conference. The Sportsbooks do not even offer a market for the East Division. To take it a step further, few books offer Big Ten outright title odds due to the hype and history surrounding Ohio State. Those that do list Ohio State (-225) as a prohibitive favorite. That is a big number for a Futures market. Makes sense considering 1) this Ohio State offense may be the best in the nation led by the lethal trio of CJ Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 2) how dominant the Buckeyes have been in winning the Big Ten four of the last five years, and 3) the East Division has reigned supreme, winning every Big Ten championship game since the creation of the East and West divisions in 2014.
You can still get a Futures bet down for the West Division though. A quick look at those odds finds Wisconsin (+150) as the favorite followed by Iowa (+350), Minnesota (+450), and Purdue (+550). Considering their Week Zero result (that onsides kick is still a head-scratcher), it is odd to see Nebraska’s odds (+650) shorter than those of Northwestern (+2500).
Moving on to Week 1 plays:
Ohio State -17 vs Notre Dame
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Notre Dame is the first Top 5 AP ranked team to be double-digit underdogs since the 1970’s and you better believe we are still not taking them.
While this spread is probably sharp as a Jack Knife 9000 (Ricky Bobby Voice), Ohio State is the much more talented team. Their offensive prowess was highlighted earlier but the focus on fixing their defense is probably the true key to their season. The Buckeyes hired Oklahoma State’s Defensive Coordinator, Jim Knowles, this past offseason. His resume is strong, and he is expected to perform a slight makeover on a defense that performed at an average level last year.
Notre Dame will roll out a new quarterback under center as Marcus Freeman enters his first full year as the head coach. Freeman is 0-1 in his career, losing to Oklahoma State (and the aforementioned Jim Knowles) in the Fiesta Bowl after the Cowboys stormed back to beat Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame. Injuries have been an issue in training camp for the Irish as well. Life should be extremely tough on both sides of the ball for the Irish.
I like the Buckeyes by three-plus touchdowns.
Notre Dame at Ohio State OVER 59 Points
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
Playing a primetime game spread makes me a little woozy and weak at the knees. However, I am a bit enticed by the total in this game. After Ohio State hired Jim Knowles, everyone instantly expects them to be a lockdown, defensive team. This is the same team that was 38th in total defense and 52nd in DVD last season. DVD is the value of the drive based on starting field position. I am not expecting a drastic improvement from a team who last season let every team capitalize on good field position. This Notre Dame team should put up no fewer than 14-20 points.
Ohio State had the highest scoring offense in the country, led by Heisman front-runner CJ Stroud. They lost two of their wide receivers to the first round of the NFL Draft but have more than enough talent behind them to help Stroud make a run at the Heisman. The two games Ohio State was held below 30 points were both in tough, hostile road environments. This game is at the Shoe at night, which should feature high-octane offense from Ohio State. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s speed and Treyvon Henderson’s ability to house call any run, Ohio State should still lead CFB in yards per play with a few memorable big plays this weekend.
The tempo will be high, and the atmosphere will be rocking. The over is the only bet I like in this prime-time game.
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Michigan vs. Colorado State 1st quarter: Michigan (-7.5)
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB)
Michigan opens Week 1 as 30.5-point favorites to Colorado State — a line that scares me from a blowout perspective. These are exactly the kind of games that turn into bad beats when the winning team sits its starters as victory is well within reach. One way to pivot off this potentially bad beat could be an early first quarter play. Michigan’s projected win total sits at 9.5, while Colorado State is at 5.5. A clear mismatch on paper and on the books, this is a game Michigan should have no trouble winning but is not one I want any part of late. I like the Wolverines to cover a -7.5-point first quarter line at home against the Rams and quarterback Clay Millen — who will be making his first career start. Ann Arbor is not usually kind to first-year quarterbacks let alone those choosing The Big House as the site for their debut under center.
Chris Tyree, RB, Notre Dame at Ohio State UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards
Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
Notre Dame is breaking in new starting quarterback Tyler Buchner, who profiles as a capable dual-threat signal caller. However, the question of how he handles the pressure of a nationally televised game against the vaunted Ohio State Buckeyes in the Horseshoe in his first career start is anyone’s guess. A rough start for Buchner could force ND to throw in order to catch up to Ohio State’s #1 ranked scoring offense of 2021. Such a game script would be a dagger to Chris Tyree‘s ability to clear the 48.5 rushing yards mark since the initial depth chart lists Tyree in a three-way “or” situation with Logan Diggs and Audric Estime. If the game script and depth chart uncertainty does not interest you, practice reports stated that Tyree will be moved all around the formation as attrition in the WR room led to OC Tommy Rees giving Tyree increased snaps in the slot to compensate.
As discussed throughout this piece, Ohio State brings in the architect of Oklahoma State’s top-5 defense of a year ago, DC Jim Knowles, whose defense held opponents to a sensational 88 rushing yards per game with 2.7 yards per carry in 2021. With Ohio State returning eight starters, including three defensive linemen who were considered top-5 recruits at their respective positions, I am expecting DC Knowles to scheme up a stout front that attacks the run game and forces QB Buchner to beat them through the air. All of these factors add up to a confident play of Under 48.5 rushing yards for Chris Tyree.
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat!
