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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
With the dust finally settled on the college football bowl season, only two teams remain as we now set our sites on the College Football Playoff National Championship game between Alabama and Georgia.
In what now feels like a tale as old as time, Alabama is set to appear in its ninth national title game under Nick Saban, while Georgia is headed to its second championship game under Kirby Smart.
Alabama defeated Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl by a score of 27-6 to get to this point, and already has an SEC Championship win over Georgia, defeating the Bulldogs 41-24 back on January 4, but now the Crimson Tide need to prove that they can down the Dawgs again.
Entering the SEC Championship game as 6.5-point underdogs, Alabama won by 17 to pull off the outright win in near blowout fashion. Heisman winning quarterback Bryce Young threw for 421 yards and three touchdowns, as the 41 points that Bama hung on Georgia were the most by any team in the 2021 season.
As a matter of fact, no team had scored more than 17 points on Georgia prior to them facing Alabama.
With the Bulldogs now standing between Saban and company for another championship title in the 2021-2022 college football season, and the Tide (+3) underdogs yet again, let’s take a look at what the Tide need to do to pull off their second upset win of the season on the game’s biggest stage.
Offensively: When it comes to Alabama’s offense, one of the first things people will look to reference as an obstacle in this game will be the loss of wide receiver John Metchie, who suffered a season-ending knee injury late in the first half of the SEC Championship game against Georgia. Metchie finished that game with a receiving line of 6-97-1 on eight targets. Metchie was Bama’s second leading receiver on the year, catching 96 passes for 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns, but the loss of Metchie didn’t stop quarterback Bryce Young for another 135 yards and one touchdown in the second half following the loss of the star receiver.
Young Completed 26-of-44 passes for 421 yards on the day, but attempted just 19 passes in the second half, after throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns in the first half.
Against Cincinnati, Bama rolled out a different offensive game plan against an elite pass defense, as running back Brian Robinson was leaned on early and often, rushing 26 times for a season-high 204 yards and Bama looked to grind down Cincinnati’s defense while Young completed 17-of-28 passes for 181 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
Wide receiver Ja’Corey Brooks stepped up in Metchie’s absence to go for 4-66-1, while catching a long 44-yard touchdown pass from Young, as top wide receiver Jameson Williams finished with seven receptions for 62 yards on a team-high nine targets.
If there’s one thing we can count on head coach Nick Saban to do, it’s adjust when needed. For an offense that threw for over 400 yards on Georgia, the switch to a ground heavy approach against Cincinnati to put Young in position to finish off drives, with two of Young’s three touchdown passes coming from eight and nine yards out, proved to be enough breach Cincinnati’s pass defense.
Defensively: For all of the praise that Alabama’s offense has gotten this season, its defense has felt largely slept on at times. Anchored by linebacker Will Anderson and his 141 tackles and 31 tackles for a loss, (plus 17.5 sacks) Bama’s defense ranks 14th in overall success rate against (36.9%) while ranking third in rushing success rate against (33.3%).
The Tide held Cincinnati to just six points in the Cotton Bowl, while Bearcats quarterback Desmond Ridder completed just 17-of-32 passes for 144 yards on the day, with no touchdowns, despite being without cornerback Josh Jobe (turf toe).
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett faced arguably his first challenge of the season in the SEC Championship game, when Alabama’s offensive explosion resulted in Bennett throwing a season-high 48 times after the redshirt junior quarterback hadn’t thrown more than 28 times in any game prior to the matchup against Alabama. In that game, Bennett was pressured a season-high 15 times, which resulted in two sacks and likely contributed to his two interceptions.
Bennett finished that game with 340 yards passing on the day, with 153 of those yards coming in a fourth quarter that Georgia entered into with a 31-17 deficit.
Alabama ranks eighth in the nation with a +10 turnover differential this season, and is 17th in points allowed per drive (1.60) against a schedule that proved to be the third most difficult on the season, compared to Georgia’s 19th most difficult schedule.
Bama’s defense has been one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers, as well as getting after the quarterback, which could prove problematic for Georgia, once again, in the team’s second meeting.
How They Will Win: As previously mentioned Stetson Bennett was pressured a season-high 15 times in the SEC Championship game according to Pro Football Focus. Interestingly enough, in 2020, the game where Bennett also saw the most pressure on the year was also against Alabama, when he was pressured a season-high 13 times, as he completed 18-of-40 passes for 269 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions while taking two sacks.
In his two games against Alabama, Bennett has completed 47-of-88 passes (53.4%) for 609 yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions.
Additionally, Bennett has also proven to be one of the worst quarterbacks in the nation against pressure, which could be exposed by an Alabama defense that ranks fifth if overall sack rate (10.5%) and 41st in pressure rate (31.4%).
Looking again at PFF.com’s advanced metrics, Bennett ranks 133rd among qualified quarterbacks (min. 50 drop backs) in completion percentage (32.7%) when facing pressure. This puts him near the bottom of the list with some of the most underwhelming quarterbacks in the nation, while Alabama quarterback Bryce Young ranks as one of the best quarterbacks against pressure, of which he has seen a lot of.
Young more or less lives in the fire. He has faced 199 quarterback pressures this season, which ranks as the third most among quarterbacks, but ranks 36th in completion percentage (46.5%) when facing pressure, while throwing for the most yards against pressure (1,177) and touchdowns (16) compared to just three interceptions. His 412 passing yards in the SEC Championship game were his second most on the season, despite the fact that he was pressured on 18 drop backs.
While I don’t want to overlook the importance of Alabama finding a way to score points against Georgia’s top-flight defense (9.6 points allowed/gm), I struggle to find confidence in Bennett’s ability to score against a defense that has given him trouble in each of their first two matchups.
Bennett has been pressured on just 72 drops backs this season, with 40.3% of those pressures coming against Tennessee (14) and Alabama (15). These were arguably Bennett’s two most difficult games of the season, as he completed just 57.1% of his passes against Tennessee for 210 yards and one touchdown in a game Georgia won easily by a score of 41-17.
Georgia could get after Bryce Young in this one, but at this point in the season, who hasn’t gotten after him? Young faces an average of 14.2 pressures per game, and nonchalantly turned that into 4,491 yards, 45 touchdowns and five touchdowns and a Heisman Trophy.
Best Bet: Nick Saban said after the team’s SEC Championship win that the team was given, “yummy” rat poison by the media leading up to the game. This was a clear reference to their status as 6.5-point underdogs heading into the game, and their underdog status in this one could serve as extra motivation yet again. I’m a firm believer in Heisman Trophy quarterback Bryce Young, and his ability to overcome the absence of John Metchie, while Will Anderson and Alabama’s defense create nightmarish scenarios for Stetson Bennett one more time. Georgia has multiple things it needs to figure out to pull off the win, and Saban looks like a coach who has been more or less unsolvable for Kirby Smart, who is 0-4 against his former boss.
Pick: Alabama (+3) | Alabama (+125)
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