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Malik Willis and Liberty brings one of the nation’s top rushing attacks and pass defense units in the country into the LendingTree Bowl against a pass-happy Eastern Michigan. Will the Eagles be able to shutdown Liberty’s 34 PPG offense?
What: LendingTree Bowl
Who: Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs. Liberty (7-5)
Where: Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama
When: Saturday, December 18 (5:45 p.m. EST)
Opening line: Liberty (-7.5) (O/U 58)
Current line: Liberty (-8.5) (O/U 57.5)
Most recent bowl result: Liberty defeated Coastal Carolina in overtime 37-34 in the 2020 Cure Bowl. Eastern Michigan lost to Pitt 34-30 in the 2019 Quick Lane Bowl.
Liberty at a glance:
A huge factor in this game is whether or not first-round caliber quarterback Malik Willis will participate. As of this moment, it appears that Willis intends to play before heading off to train for the Senior Bowl in early February. He is the heart and soul of HC Hugh Freeze’s offense that ranks 35th in big play rate while averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Willis is a dynamic runner who has led the nation in QB scrambles each of the past two seasons, as he is lethal outside of structure and in the open field. However he also leads the FBS in sacks taken with 50, so his improvisation has a price. While Willis’ interception totals increased from six in 2020 to twelve this year, his “turnover worthy play rate” actually decreased from 5.3-to-4.0 percent while his number of big time throws jumped from 20-to-36. With a PFF overall offensive grade of 90.9, Willis is the 9th highest graded quarterback in the nation and his importance to Liberty’s offense is difficult to overstate.
Liberty’s offense was pretty good once again, but their production dipped from 38 points and 489 yards per game last year to 32 points and 428 yards per game this season. Joshua Mack leads a three-way rushing committee in addition to T.J. Green and Shedro Louis while Demario Douglas and C.J. Daniels were Malik Willis’ favorite targets. Thanks to Willis’ ability to improvise, their rushing attack is the heart and soul of the offense, ranking 12th nationally in rushing success rate, eighth in marginal efficiency and ninth in big play rate. They aren’t particularly consistent through the air, ranking in the 80’s in success rate and marginal passing efficiency, but they are a top-20 outfit when it comes to producing big aerial plays.
Their defense is a credible unit that allowed a very respectable 21.7 points and 315 yards per game, which ranked 10th best in the nation. The Flames were certifiably awesome against the pass, ranking fifth in the country by allowing just 174 pass yards per contest and holding opponents to 26 yards per drive (14th). Their pass rush is ferocious, posting a 10% sack rate and 35% pressure rate, both top-20 marks nationally. Liberty is a well-coached team that is a top-40 caliber unit on both sides of the ball.
Eastern Michigan University at a glance:
Heading into 2021, EMU owned the distinction of returning the most production of any school in the nation. While experience alone isn’t a guarantor of a winning season, Eastern Michigan was able to run a pretty efficient offense that didn’t post many three-and-outs while doing a good job of converting red-zone appearances into scores, ranking 25th in the country with 4.7 points per scoring opportunity. Promising sophomore QB Preston Hutchinson had a solid 2020, but he was unceremoniously pulled from his starting job in favor of Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant, who completed 69 percent of his passes for 2,921 yards, 7.9 yards per attempt and a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio.
Offensively the Eagles want to throw, as they average 282 passing yards while ranking in the top-30 nationally in passing success rate, marginal efficiency and completion rate. Slot receiver Hassan Beydoun is one of the best possession receivers in the nation, reeling in 84-of-111 targets for a 76 percent catch rate, 905 yards, four touchdowns and a strong 78.4 receiving grade according to PFF. Despite their ability to move the ball with short passes, EMU struggles to create big plays, ranking 103rd in marginal explosiveness and 93rd in Iso/PPP. The run game is almost ineffectual, posting just 117 rushing yards per game while averaging 3.4 YPC and ranking in the bottom half of the nation in every advanced metric. The one-dimensional traits of Eastern Michigan’s offense make it easy to see why they had trouble scoring against above average defenses.
Defensively the Eagles are frequently overmatched on the line, allowing 197 rushing yards and 442 total yards per game. For comparison, Liberty allow 332 total yards per game, which is 110 yards less than EMU on average. They rank dead last in the country in stuff rate and fourth-worst in rushing success rate. DC Neal Neathery employs a bend but don’t break philosophy that limits big plays but allows teams to pound the underneath in the passing game while gouging the soft underbelly of their defensive line for first downs that extend drives, as is evidenced in their woeful 117th ranking in third-down success rate.
Key to the matchup:
Liberty’s biggest problems as a team are a troubling -10 turnover margin and inconsistency in the passing game. Though they lost five games this season, LU had a post game win expectancy well over 50% in two of those losses and have a projected second-order win total of 8.2 as opposed to their actual standing as a seven win team. Conversely, Eastern Michigan won two games where they had a 28% or lower win expectancy and a second-order win total of 4.8 games, which is a staggering 2.2 games below their actual win total.
Best Bet:
Eastern Michigan feasted on a soft non-conference slate by winning games against UMass, St. Francis University and Texas State. Besides their victory over a hapless Bowling Green, their other two victories over MAC opponents came in games they were extremely lucky to pull out. The converse is true with Liberty, who lost their last three games against quality teams such as Army, Louisiana and Ole Miss. Their punishing ground attack will wear down EMU’s undersized front-seven while Liberty’s fifth ranked pass defense will be able to suffocate Eastern Michigan’s one-dimensional offense. So long as Malik Willis plays, I think the future NFL Draft selection uses this game as a highlight reel to showcase what he can do at the next level. Liberty is going to win this game comfortably, I’m expecting the Flames (-9.5) to cover.
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