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Well, if the upset crowd thought last week was boring, the gods of the NCAA decided to have mercy and give the world as many upsets as they could possibly handle. It was a wild week, so buckle up.
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Upset Alert
There are a lot of them. I’ll try to keep this section limited to a few. This column also pretty much sticks to ranked games, so no Bowling Green or Oregon State.
#9 Clemson at NC State (Line: Clemson -10.5, O/U 47.5)
Result: NC State wins 27-20
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Of course, oddsmakers were pretty aware that this was a very real possibility with the rather normal line of just 10.5 points for Clemson. A year ago, that would’ve been unthinkable. It’s a very different era, and it really makes you wonder how good Trevor Lawrence is, or perhaps...how bad D.J. Uiagalelei might be.
Regardless, Clemson was soundly defeated, and it wasn’t just one of those lucky flukes. NC State outgained Clemson by 172 yards, and had 31 first down to Clemson’s 10. In fact, Clemson were lucky to have as much of a chance as they did. Clemson struck first, but NC State matched, and for the rest of the game the Wolfpack looked much more likely to score of the two teams.
A double-OT thriller was needed after NC State missed a 39-yard field goal to win it in regulation, but the Wolfpack left worthy winners in the end.
The betting action, fitting for such a close game, was split. The overall ticket count favored the pedigree of Clemson to come through and right the ship, with 55% of them taking the Tigers and laying the points. 69% of the handle, on the other hand, chose NC State, sensing the weakness inside Clemson. For the O/U, the majority of bets (60%) and handle (78%) took the over, which barely hit - solely due to the overtime.
#21 North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech (Line: UNC -12, O/U 65)
Result: Georgia Tech wins 45-22
It was a tough day for the top of the ACC, and both programs had similar trajectories. Both were pretty hyped preseason teams that suffered losses in Week 1. They both rebounded for the most part in Weeks 2 and 3, and then suffered a rough loss this week that will see Clemson tumble and UNC drop out of the rankings entirely. Both teams have also all but ended the ACC’s hope for a playoff representative.
This game was a tale of two philosophies, with UNC relying on Sam Howell and the passing attack, while Georgia Tech used their highly-recruited running backs to ground and pound. The ground game won this round. But more than that battle of styles, it was the turnovers that killed UNC. Sam Howell, despite a stellar day through the air, put the ball on the dirt three times, which led to 17 GT points. Combined with a questionable call to go for it on their own 41 which led to yet another Georgia Tech touchdown, and UNC really shot themselves in the foot in this one. Of course, the pressure that the Yellow Jackets put on was a major factor, as they sacked Howell eight times and hit him a lot more.
The public had the wool pulled over their eyes. In the most lopsided action that featured an outright loss for the favorite, UNC lost bettors a lot of money. 92% of the bettors (THE highest margin this week) and 83% of the overall money took UNC and the points, and they were sorely mistaken. In another twisted turn of fate, one of the very few times the majority of the total bets ever goes under, the point total went over the 65 point line. Most of the handle knew better though, with 69% of the handle going with the over, so at least those guys made some money back on the absolute hosing they took on the line. Yet somehow, this wasn’t even the most lopsided overall loss for the public this week.
Protectors of Your Cash
After a depressing week where none of the heavy favorites could be counted on, a few teams came through and delivered.
UMass vs. #17 Coastal Carolina (Line: CCU -36, O/U 65.5)
Result: CCU wins 53-3
After a tough game against Buffalo, the Chanticleers rewarded the 81% of the bettors (and 89% of the money) who believed in them again to blow out their over-matched opponent. CCU dominated from beginning to end on both sides of the ball. They rushed for 312 yards, and gave up just 28 to the Minutemen. Surprisingly in a beat-down of this magnitude, CCU didn’t cause any turnovers (unless you count a safety). This was just a straightforward blowout. Seven different Chanticleers found themselves crossing the goal line in this one and CCU was up 53-0 in the fourth quarter Cameron Carson kicked a field goal to get UMass on the board.
The O/U can be a toss up in these lopsided contests. On one hand, the favored team is going to put up a ton of points, but their opponent can easily get shut out, which is basically what happened here. For the most part though, the public was aware. Just 51% of total bets took the over, and 63% of the handle took the under. Another factor that can also play in is the weaker opponent scoring a few times in garbage time to round out the O/U, but that clearly didn’t happen here. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen ever though, so be aware.
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Failure to Launch
Six games qualify for this ignominious designation, as befitting a week of chaos. The only lopsided betting action to deliver was the aforementioned CCU Chanticleers. I’ll only mention the two biggest, with another extra one thrown in for its unique circumstance.
Akron at #10 Ohio State (Line: Ohio State -49.5, O/U 66.5)
Result: Ohio State wins 59-7
In an incredibly rare turn of events, the lopsided action was actually for Akron to cover the points. In general the favorite is taken more often despite the points, and for it to be way in favor of this big a cover is quite rare indeed. It makes sense in both ways. On one hand, Ohio State just struggled immensely against Tulsa, while Akron was coming off their best performance of the season versus Bryant. Ohio State was also starting a true freshman in Kyle McCord with normal starter CJ Stroud out for injury, although some Buckeye fans will tell you that’s a good thing. Combined with a huge number, it’s not terribly surprising that the majority of the public sided with Akron.
On the other hand, it’s still Ohio State and Akron for goodness sake. And the Buckeyes were at home! At the end of the day, there is an extreme talent gap on the field, especially at the skill positions. Ohio State’s stable of wide receivers and running backs just might be the best in the country, and Ohio State was rather likely to cover on just that discrepancy alone no matter who the QB was. It’s not like McCord played incredible either. Of course, that’s with the benefit of hindsight.
For the actual numbers, 80% of the public’s bets took Akron, and 84% of the money went to the Zips to cover. When Akron started out up 7-0, I’m sure bettors were smiling thinking they had pulled off a clever move. Things turned incredibly quickly as can be seen by the final score. Despite all that, Akron had a chance to salvage the line (and the over, although the under was the slightly more popular bet) right at the end of the game. In the dying seconds, Akron got as close as the OSU 14 before a couple of sacks ran out the clock. If Akron just decided to take the field goal, they would’ve covered for the public by half a point and hit the over, which went under by half a point. How much money was riding on that one decision? It’s kind of scary to think about, honestly.
South Florida at BYU (Line: BYU -23.5, O/U 54)
Result: BYU wins 35-27
Despite BYU jumping out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter, the Cougars never hit that 23.5 spread at any point in this one. South Florida managed to keep it interesting throughout, and then things got really interesting when USF cut the game to within one score with 5:49 left in the 4th. The Bulls never got the ball back unfortunately, and BYU held on for the win.
Also unfortunate was the betting action. A whopping 88% of the bettors (89% of the cash) took BYU to win this one easily, and that simply didn’t happen. Despite BYU’s Baylor Romney playing a nearly flawless game passing-wise, USF used a grinding running game to keep the chains (and the clock) moving. USF ran 72 plays (48 were run plays) to BYU’s 50, and had 11 more minutes of possession. Keeping the ball out of a hot QB’s hands is a tried and true strategy to go for an upset, and it almost worked for USF.
One positive was that the majority (although it was a smaller majority) took the over which hit by the end of the third quarter.
Georgia State @ #23 Auburn (Line: Auburn -27, O/U 57)
Result: Auburn wins 34-24
Don’t let the score line fool you: this was Georgia State’s game to lose. At halftime bettors knew Auburn had no chance to cover, and the question turned to if Auburn would lose outright which they very nearly did. The Panthers took a 24-12 lead into half time, and even chased Auburn QB Bo Nix out of the game. Sadly for them, the legend of T.J. Finley may have just started at their expense. With 59 seconds left in the game, and Auburn facing 4th-and-9 on the Georgia State 10 yard line, Finley somehow evaded heavy pressure before finding Shedrick Jackson in the endzone to take a 25-24 lead. Auburn then converted a two-point conversion, and on the subsequent drive Georgia State’s Darren Grainger threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown which made the score what it was.
Remember when I said UNC’s 92% of total bets and 83% of the handle wasn’t the biggest loss? This was the one that beat it out. An absurd 91% of the total bets and 92% (oh boy) of the handle took Auburn to lay the smackdown on Georgia State. At least there wasn’t any drama in this one, if that makes the public feel any better. One consolation prize: 75% of total bets and 68% of the handle took the over which needed that last second pick-six and the subsequent point after to make it.
Overall it was a tough week for the public, with six teams that were heavily bet on failing to cover. Vegas sleeps soundly tonight.
While I wouldn’t consider Week 3 boring by any stretch, Week 4 was an absolute roller coaster of comebacks, chokes, upsets and incredibly close games. Oklahoma was THIS close to losing to West Virginia, Michigan State barely survived against Nebraska while Kansas State wasn’t quite so lucky against Oklahoma State. Arkansas dominated Texas A&M. Almost every single game on this slate could’ve been written about for one thing or another.
As we always do, let’s end this with a check on the O/U trends. Twenty ranked games were contested this week, and the public did their normal thing by favoring over on 16 of them. The handle on the other hand, seems to be adjusting to this year’s lower scores, with the majority of the money taking the over and under ten times each. As for the actual slate results, 11 games went over and 9 games went under.
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