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It had to be this way, didn’t it? A crazy, absurd, ridiculous season could only end with a crazy, absurd and ridiculous final regular season week. A playoff team fell for what seems like the millionth time, and another was pushed to the brink of elimination.
The landscape of college football totally shifted, and the championship games will no doubt be crazy. With two of college football’s modern powerhouses out there are still a few playoff spots left up for grabs, ensuring this year as the craziest in NCAA history.
Take that, 2007.
Upset Alert
#2 Ohio State at #5 Michigan (Line: Ohio State -7, O/U 64.5)
Result: Michigan wins 42-27
The Game lived up to its lofty reputation, and Michigan finally got one in over their rivals for the first time in 12 years. They picked an incredible time to do it, as their win dumped Ohio State out of the playoffs, out of the Big Ten Championship, and possibly out of a New Year’s Six bowl. Buckeyes fans went from “we could win the whole thing this year!” to “I wonder who we’ll see in the Outback Bowl”. Now Michigan is set up to win the Big Ten for the first time 2004, and potentially make their College Football Playoff debut in the process.
Michigan pounded OSU on the ground in an eerily similar fashion to the Buckeyes’ loss against Oregon. Hassan Haskins scored five touchdowns and Michigan nearly hit 300 yards rushing. Their vaunted defensive line also did their job, getting to CJ Stroud four times and causing numerous offensive line penalties, with Michigan winning the penalty battle 2-10. They did enough to slow OSU’s prodigious offense, and continually gashed the defense with big run after big run.
After OSU’s dumpstering of Michigan State, bettors thought this would be another footnote in a rivalry that was beginning to fade in the hearts and minds of fans, with OSU being so dominant. The Wolverines put a pin in that. A massive 86% of bettors went with OSU, and an even larger percentage of the handle went the same way, a whopping 93%. This game was not supposed to be close, and it wasn’t. Just not in the expected direction. The over did hit, which just 58% of bettors and 51% of the money bet on. It was a close call, as Michigan was in position to possibly kneel the ball with one more first down with three minutes left in the game, but OSU did the only possible play and let Michigan easily score another touchdown to sneak the over.
This was the marquee win missing from Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan resume, and they have a chance to make history with this banner victory. Perhaps the greatest rivalry in sports is back.
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#22 UTSA at North Texas (Line: UTSA -10, O/U 59.5)
Result: North Texas wins 45-23
And then there were two. Just two undefeated teams remain, and they both have arguably their toughest test coming up. As a neutral, it would be incredibly interesting to see the other two fall so things can get really wild. UTSA did have it coming more than the other two though, with their last two games before this one being a close win against a 3-9 Southern Miss and a last-second miracle against UAB. You could almost feel UTSA teetering on the precipice of their first loss, and they finally tipped fully over. This was not a close game, as North Texas dominated from the rip, opening up a 31-13 lead at halftime and stretching it to 45-13 by the fourth quarter. UTSA had two brutal special teams fumbles in the first quarter, which led to 14 North Texas points and they didn’t look back. The Roadrunners, ironically, got run over, allowing 340 yards rushing and five touchdowns.
As stated previously, this loss by UTSA wasn’t entirely unexpected. Bettors felt that way too. While 61% of the tickets came in for UTSA, 66% of the money went instead to North Texas, despite them being 5-6 coming into the game. In fact, there was enough early action in favor of the Mean Green for the line to move from UTSA -12 at opening to -10 at kickoff. The over/under action was also split. Total bets favored over (60%), while the handle majority (58%) went with the under, and were probably pretty chagrined to see the early fumbles by UTSA leading to free North Texas points. UTSA’s Cinderella run finally met it’s end, but honestly it lasted longer than most, so hats off to them.
#14 Wisconsin at Minnesota (Line: Wisconsin -7, O/U 39)
Result: Minnesota wins 23-13
A really, really tough result for the Badgers, who had been on a furious run recently. They had won seven straight, with most of those being in dominant fashion except for their game against Nebraska, but no one beat them badly. If Wisconsin won, they would have punched their ticket into the Big Ten Championship Game. Instead, they laid an egg at the worst possible time, getting cleanly beat by a, at the time, 7-4 Minnesota team. Minnesota sold out to stop the run, limiting star RB Braelon Allen to just 47 yards on 17 rushes, which was his overall worst performance of the season. This, coming right after Allen rushed for three scores in back-to-back games. In fact, this was Allen’s first game under 100 yards since October 2nd, when he wasn’t the primary running back. This left Graham Mertz needing to pick up the slack and he predictably failed to do so. Wisconsin’s offense produced no touchdowns and just six points (they had an interception return TD).
That being said, Wisconsin did have a lead going into half thanks to the aforementioned interception, but Minnesota took the lead in the third and with how poorly Wisconsin was playing on offense there was no way to fully come back. Just 57% of the handle took Wisconsin to cover, with a slightly higher majority of the total bets (68%) doing the same. The interesting action came on the over/under. A massive 91% of the handle and 85% of the tickets thought 39 was simply way too low, especially with how Wisconsin (well, just Allen really) had been playing recently. The Big Ten however, proved, as they often do, that no point total is too low, and they scored a combined 36. There was a missed 48-yard field goal by Wisconsin in the fourth, and Minnesota got as close as the Wisconsin 30 later on before eventually punting, but this type of thing just happens in the Big Ten.
Protectors of Your Cash
Unlike the past two weeks, there was quite a bit of lopsided action this week. As seen with Ohio State, not all of it was positive for the bettors, but after taking a bit of a break cash protectors are back in full force.
Friday Games
This column focuses on Saturday’s game slate, but it should be mentioned that Cincinnati did comfortably cover against East Carolina which over 80% of bettors and handle had them doing. Cincinnati really can only get going against teams with positive records I guess. That bodes well for their cover when they play Houston (11-1) next week.
Iowa also had 80% of tickets and money go their way in what was essentially a Pick ’Em. Interestingly, they were actually underdogs (+1), most likely because they were away. Nebraska did their normal Nebraska things though and despite a big lead going into the fourth lost in brutal fashion. They somehow went 1-8 in the conference with an even point differential. Cornhuskers, gonna cornhusk, I guess.
#1 Georgia at Georgia Tech (Line: Georgia -35.5, O/U 54.5)
Result: Georgia wins 45-0
The Bulldogs have been the most dominant team in college football by far, crushing their relatively easy schedule with no problems. That didn’t change against Georgia Tech, and Yellow Jackets’ QB Jordan Yates really has had a miserable two weeks, and it’s not really his fault. Despite the dominance (their average margin of victory is 34 points) that doesn’t mean they’ve always covered (7-4 ATS going into this game), as the lines they get are generally massive. They failed to cover last week’s huge line at Charleston Southern (on a bizarre one-in-a-million play, mind you), but that didn’t stop a majority of bettors going with Georgia.
The line probably should have been more, as Georgia Tech did just get shut out against a worse defense in Notre Dame, and they got blanked again in this one. A rather hefty majority of the bettors (81%) and handle (89%) took the Bulldogs to cover, which they did with little issue. Their defense did it’s normal thing, while their offense hit on two huge plays that helped them get the points they needed. A much tougher call was the O/U. On one hand, Georgia can put up a ton of points, as they are averaging 40.7 a game. On the other hand, Georgia Tech scoring was going to be a tough ask, and it should not have surprised anyone to see them get shut out. Bettors chose to believe that Georgia could do it by themselves, with 67% of the tickets and 70% of the handle rocking the over, but while Georgia easily could’ve, by the fourth quarter they had no reason to try and do so. The final points were scored with 10 minutes left to go, and both teams simply ran the clock out from there.
#6 Notre Dame at Stanford (Line: Notre Dame - 19.5, O/U 53.5)
Result: Notre Dame wins 45-14
Speaking of dominating teams, Notre Dame has picked the right time to go off, and with their recent stellar performances have firmly put themselves in contention for the playoff. Coming into this game they’d outscored their last three opponents 107-9, and this game wasn’t much different. The defense is playing lights out, Jack Coan is doing enough to win and Kyren Williams is still a star. Stanford on the other hand, is usually a tricky test, especially at home, but this year has been one to forget, and they lost six straight before taking the L here.
The original line of Notre Dame -17.5 quickly shot up before settling at -19.5 and that still clearly was not enough. A massive, and by far the most of the week, 91% of the total bets and 95% of the handle knew Notre Dame was going to dominate and they answered the bell. The over/under action wasn’t quite as lopsided, but a still solid majority took the over, which actually just barely hit. Notre Dame pretty much could have kneeled the ball out, but with 1:50 left in the game (and the point total at 52), Kyren Williams got his second score of the day to hit over. Sometimes life just has a way of working out doesn’t it? At least, it did for the 75% of bettors and 84% of the handle that took over.
Of course, with no championship game Notre Dame will need some help to get into the playoffs, but they’ve done everything they can in the past few weeks. One really has to wonder, if they get jumped again, when Notre Dame will finally capitulate.
Failure to Launch
With more lopsided action this week than the past two combined, it makes sense that there were more positive AND negative results.
#24 Houston at Connecticut (Line: Houston -32.5, O/U 54)
Result: Houston wins 45-17
It’s tough to win by four touchdowns and still not cover, but that’s the “playing against UConn” special. Just ask Clemson, who had basically the same thing happen to them two weeks ago. It wasn’t for lack of trying, as Houston did score in the fourth quarter with just 3:35 remaining, but the pick-six they threw earlier in the quarter really doomed any chances they had. That pick-six must’ve been a cruel dagger to the hearts of the 81% of bettors and the guys that bet 82% of the handle on Houston to cover. It’s hard to blame them though. Since UConn’s only win against Yale four weeks ago, they’ve lost by 31 to Middle Tennessee State, by 37 to Clemson and by 32 to UCF and Houston has arguments to be better than all three. The Cougars did pull their starters going into the fourth, but it’s not like they were covering up till then either. Honestly the game was actually pretty close going into half, with the Huskies down just 21-10, in large part thanks to a shanked punt by Houston. Houston did then score on their next three possessions which gave bettors some hope, but the pick-six took it all away again.
The over/under on the other hand, was majorly split. The larger majority was 72% of the handle taking under, most likely expecting UConn to score in the single digits which isn’t the worst assumption to make (it happened three times this season). On the other hand, Houston’s offense is quite good, UConn’s defense is atrociously bad and a point total of 54 isn’t really that high. UConn had just given up 40+ in three straight coming into this game against worse offenses, and it would’ve been hard for Houston NOT to do the same. They did indeed score over 40. At least 59% of the bettors went with the over, which would’ve hit with or without Houston’s garbage time TD.
#13 BYU at USC (Line: BYU -7, O/U 65)
Result: BYU wins 35-31
BYU needed nearly the entire time to just win the game, not to mention covering. They retook the lead in fourth quarter with just 4:24 left in the game, and managed to just hold on for the W. USC got as close as the BYU 15 before turning just barely it over on downs. That last BYU touchdown also allowed the game to just go over by one point as well. While 66% of the handle took that over, a surprising 62% of the total bets actually went under. Surprising because the majority of total bets rarely goes under, especially not in a split. It makes sense though. USC hasn’t really been the same since Drake London’s injury, while BYU is averaging just 33.5 per game. BYU had scored a ton of points in their last few games, but that was against Virginia, Idaho State and they scored just 34 against Georgia Southern. USC (with London) had scored 16 on Arizona State and 33 on UCLA. Given that, 65 is a large number, but hey, they made it.
It was an extremely close and entertaining contest, although if you had skin in the game your excitement was probably dampened a bit. A large majority of tickets (84%) and money (82%) went to BYU to cover, which they failed to do. When BYU scored to start the third quarter and made the score 28-13 that majority was probably feeling comfortable, but then USC scored 18 unanswered to take the lead to crush those dreams.
Split Decisions
#17 Pittsburgh at Syracuse (Line: Pitt -12, O/U 57.5)
Result: Pittsburgh wins 31-14
Pitt needed a quarter to get going, falling behind the Orange 7-0 at first quarter’s end, but once they got going they closed it out without much issue. They scored 28 unanswered in the second and third quarters and covered fairly comfortably. As predicted (just uh, don’t look at the underdog prediction) Syracuse didn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up once Pitt seized the lead and Kenny Pickett added to his Heisman candidacy with another four touchdown performance. The majority of bettors agreed with me, with 73% of them going for the Panthers. The majority of the money did not though, as 65% of them actually took Syracuse and the points. I’m not sure what the sharps saw in this one, as Syracuse had been blown out and failed horribly to cover in their last two games while Pitt had covered two of their last three, and their failure against Virginia was due to a virtuoso performance by Brennan Armstrong and the Cavalier offense, which Syracuse had no chance of matching.
The over/under was also extremely split in this game. Total bets was a true 50/50 split which almost never happens, while the handle majority pulled one back in this one, with 72% of them taking the under. That makes much more sense, as Syracuse averages just 24.9 points per game and most of that was inflated from the first half of the year. Pitt on the other hand can fill it up but also have no qualms against keeping the score fairly low if they don’t need to get into a shootout. Their 28-7, 27-17 and 30-23 games against Virginia Tech, Clemson and North Carolina (all ACC games) speak to that.
Missed the Mark
There were a weirdly large amount of games that featured incredibly lopsided action on the point totals, all of them taking over. I’m talking like 90%+ handle and bets. Funnily enough, they almost all missed, with the exception being LSU-Texas A&M.
#3 Alabama at Auburn (Line: Alabama -20.5, O/U 57)
Result: Alabama wins 24-22
If there had to be a pick for the most unexpected result, this one has to be it. Not that Alabama won. Not even necessarily that the game was close. The craziest thing about this game was the total lack of offense from both teams. They needed four overtimes to get into the 20’s each! Regulation ended with the score 10-10 for goodness sake! That’s some Big Ten stuff right there. Alabama’s previous regulation low was 20 against LSU. Besides that, it was 31 against Florida. Scoring points has not been the problem for Bama, but their defense had looked questionable recently. That was not the case in this one, as the Crimson Tide were blanked until the fourth quarter. They waited until there was just 33 seconds left in the game to score their first touchdown and tie the game up.
Alabama wasn’t a popular pick, as just 54% of tickets and 52% of money took them. That proved to be fairly astute with how close the game ended up being. What missed the mark by a mile was the point total. The O/U was set at 57, which bettors overwhelmingly thought was far too low. Considering Alabama’s last game was a 42-35 shootout against Arkansas, who are far from offensive juggernauts, I can’t blame them. Alabama had exactly one game go under 57 up until this point, which was against LSU. It was twice as common for them to score over 57 themselves then for the total to be under 57. A gigantic 92% of the total bets and 95% of the total money absolutely hammered the over, likely thinking this was free money. It was, just for the bookies and not the bettors as it turned out.
Movers and Shakers
Reserved for games that featured absolutely massive line movements.
Penn State at #12 Michigan State (Line: Penn State -5.5, O/U 51.5)
Result: Michigan State wins 30-27
I have no idea what the heck happened to the line in this one. How did unranked Penn State, going into #12 Michigan State’s home, end up favored in this game? The line started out at a much more reasonable Michigan State -1 at opening. Then the line moved 6.5 points in Penn State’s favor, nearly a whole touchdown, by kickoff on the heels of news that the Spartans were battling a flu bug. That proved an unwise decision. Michigan State led most of the game, and Penn State needed a last second touchdown with 53 seconds left to make it as close as it was.
The betting action was split nearly in half, with 53% of the total bets going to the Spartans while 54% of the handle went to the Nittany Lions. Perhaps Penn State was getting so much early action, which caused the swing and then Michigan State tickets evened things out? The point total was also split, with 58% of the bets going under and 71% of the money taking the over, which did end up hitting. That at least makes sense, as Michigan State has the worst pass defense in the nation and just let Ohio State make a fool out of them. Either way, it was the most extreme movement of the year by orders of magnitude, given the original line, the amount of movement and the fact that the favorite changed.
Other Notable Games
Texas A&M-LSU was wild, with LSU taking the lead with 26 seconds left in the game. The Aggies wouldn’t have covered either way, but still. That LSU touchdown also let the over hit, which saw extremely lopsided bets. A huge 90% of bets and 89% of money went towards the over, which just barely made it. That was definitely a theme this week.
Clemson-South Carolina also saw a huge 91% of bets and 88% of handle expect the game to go over the quite low total of 43 points. It didn’t, with Clemson’s defense doing their thing, and shutting out South Carolina. That one wasn’t even close.
Texas Tech-Baylor was closer than most expected, with Texas Tech having a last second game-tying field goal miss. That was with Baylor expected to win by 14 points, and 81% of tickets picking them to do exactly that.
Oregon State-Oregon featured a last minute Oregon State touchdown that had no bearing on the result of the game but did make the point total go over.
Oklahoma-Oklahoma State went down to the wire. The Cowboys took the lead in the 4th quarter, and the Sooners nearly came back themselves later on. They got to the OK State 24 before Caleb Williams was sacked and turned it over on downs.
As you can see, nearly every Saturday game was worth writing about. This 2021 season is no doubt going to go down in history, and unlike my earlier predictions, the college football playoff is also going to look dramatically different. Two modern playoff staples in Clemson and Ohio State won’t appear, and it will be tough for Alabama to make it as well. They’ll need to take down the seemingly impregnable Georgia in the SEC Championship. Oklahoma is also out, and Notre Dame will need a solid bit of help, which means there will almost assuredly be two new faces in the playoff, and a great shot at three. The amount of top four teams, and ranked teams beyond that, that have lost each and every week is truly mind-boggling, and at this point there’s no way Championship week will be a let down. I can’t wait.
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