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A top-4 team fell, and it seems like no one was surprised. That’s three weeks in a row a team that was technically in a playoff spot took a tumble, which has got to be some sort of record. Iowa wasn’t the most convincing No. 2 you’ve ever seen, but they were still No. 2 for goodness sake. They didn’t look like it on Saturday though as Purdue, as they love to do, became Spoilermakers once again and took them to the cleaners. Besides that, four other ranked teams lost to unranked opponents Saturday (plus a couple scares on Friday), and this season is continuing to be one of the craziest in recent history.
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Upset Alert
Despite the five unranked upsets, only two were actually “large” upsets. Utah was actually favored by one point by kickoff against Arizona State, while Arkansas was favored by 4.5 over Auburn and BYU was actually a 5-point underdog against Baylor. Let’s get to the big ones then.
#20 Florida at LSU (Line: Florida -12.5, O/U 60)
Result: LSU wins 49-42
Unranked LSU taking down ranked Florida, where have I seen this before? This time it was in Death Valley too, which really makes this line a head-scratcher. That was a lot of points for 20th-ranked Florida in a tough stadium. Not only that, but the line actually became more Florida-favored from the opening line of -10. Wouldn’t have mattered either way, but still a somewhat baffling line shift.
Honestly this game probably shouldn’t have been as close as it was, as the Gators combined QBs threw four interceptions. Two came in a backbreaking second quarter, both of which led to short LSU fields and touchdowns, and they took a 21-14 lead into half. The third quarter started like the second quarter, as Emory Jones threw his second interception that LSU returned for a touchdown. At that point any Florida bettors, which was 69% of the action, probably knew they weren’t winning. Florida did an admirable job fighting back though. Just like against Alabama, they didn’t let a big deficit get them down, and they carved up LSU, who somehow shouldn’t really feel that good about a ranked upset and getting four interceptions as they let the Gators tie this thing up in the 4th quarter. The Tigers did finally manage to seal the game soon after, making the gutsy call to go for it on 4th and 1 with the game tied, making it, and then getting their fourth and final pick on Florida’s next drive.
For a neutral, this was probably one of the best games of the year, with constant action, big plays galore and a HUGE point total. For fans of both teams, I’m not sure how you’re feeling. Bettors aren’t feeling great either. A big majority (76%) of the handle took Florida to cover, and 66% of the handle took the under for a double whammy. At least a very small majority (56%) of the bettors took the over. Hurray for small victories.
Purdue at #2 Iowa (Line: Iowa -11, O/U 42.5)
Result: Purdue wins 24-7
It’s incredible how good Purdue can look when they are clicking. They dominate Iowa, and then they lose to teams like Minnesota and barely beat Illinois in the same season. Truly an enigma. Purdue looked fantastic on defense, and ended up picking off Iowa QB Spencer Petras four times, although three of the four were in the last four minutes of the game with Purdue up 17. Besides the turnovers, Purdue was getting pressure all game long, and had a crucial 4th-and-1 stop against one of the best centers in the nation. On the other side, David Bell had a game for the ages with 240 yards and a touchdown. He was open all day long, and QB Aidan O’Connell found him. Speaking of O’Connell, he also looked impressive, making all kinds of throws all over the field.
Iowa looked outmatched for 75% of this game, and honestly after their escape last week against Penn State their time was probably coming. I think the bettors had an inkling as well. While 72% of the tickets went to Iowa, just 58% of the handle did. The majority still took Iowa, but it was surprisingly restrained action for a 6-0 team at home against a 3-2 opponent. The over saw a similar percentage (57% of the total bets, 58% of the handle), which is a bit surprising. Iowa is known for their defense and Big Ten games can be a slog. It was a pretty small number at 42.5 and Iowa played worse than anyone could have imagined, but still.
Protectors of Your Cash
Even without some old staples like Coastal Carolina to hold down the fort, three heavily-bet teams still managed to deliver. In fact, pretty much all of the lopsided action worked out, so bettors had a pretty easy time this week.
UCF at #3 Cincinnati (Line: Cincinnati -21.5, O/U 56)
Result: Cincinnati wins 56-21
Cincinnati is the other team with CCU that has been consistently landing in the protectors column. Besides a small hiccup against Murray State, if you kept betting on Cincinnati you’re doing well. They’ve proven that they deserve your trust, and with how they’ve been looking it’s smart to keep riding them. I was told by a wise man you’ve got to find the teams that are hot or due, and there’s no hotter team than Cincinnati right now.
Cincinnati has an argument for the most rounded team in the nation. Desmond Ridder can put a hurt on you through the air, while Jerome Ford will pound you into dust on the ground if you let him. The defense, usually the calling card under head coach Luke Fickell, is doing what they normally do. Most college football teams have a glaring weakness but Cincinnati doesn’t. In their weak conference, they can and have been blowing their competition out of water.
Cincy jumped to a huge lead and never looked back, putting up 14 points in the opening frame (their weakest quarter this year). They opened up a 35-0 lead at one point, and it wasn’t a matter of if they would cover, just a matter of by how much. It will be pretty surprising to see Cincinnati get less than 20 points until they face off against SMU on Nov. 20 but unless it gets crazy Cincy is a hammer going forward.
79% of the tickets took Cincy, and 78% of the handle, and it will be surprising if that percentage doesn’t rise. Strangely, 68% of the handle took the under, which Cincy ended up beating on their own. They just put up 52 on Temple, and Cincy has put up over 42 points in three of four games coming into this one. 79% of the total bets took the over, so maybe the sharps just got too cute.
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#5 Alabama at Mississippi State (Line: Alabama -17, O/U 59)
Result: Alabama wins 49-9
Poor Mississippi State, who had to face a simmering Alabama squad coming off a loss. Alabama didn’t pull any punches, and dominated the game from the start opening up a 21-6 lead in the first half. Unlike usual Alabama though, they didn’t let up in the second half, keeping the starters in and scoring 28 more points, including 14 in the 4th quarter with the game well in hand. They flew past the line with ease, and it was obvious to everyone that they would. The tickets and the handle were in agreement in this one, with 89% of the bets and 90% of the handle taking the Crimson Tide in by far the most lopsided action of the weekend.
Hilariously though, while the betting action was also lopsided in favor of the over (87% of tickets and 80% of the money), despite Alabama’s best attempts the over actually missed by just one point. Mississippi got as close as the Alabama 25 before QB Will Rogers threw the last of his third interceptions with 3:05 left to go. Alabama sometimes has trouble covering as they let up late, but pissed off Alabama does not.
#10 Michigan State at Indiana (Line: Michigan State -4, O/U 48.5)
Result: Michigan State wins 20-15
Michigan State keeps on getting these near pick-em lines, and they keep winning. I think people are expecting a Michigan State loss incoming, as you’d expect a bigger number for a 6-0 Spartans team taking on a 2-3 Indiana team that had gotten smoked by every ranked team they played.
Well, oddsmakers know best, and they set what ended up being a very accurate line. Indiana brought this to a two point game early in the fourth quarter. On the next drive, Michigan State kicked what ended up being the line deciding field goal. Indiana had three more chances but couldn’t quite get it done.
Over 80% of the total bets and money went to Michigan State to cover, and they must’ve been on the edge of their seats. Not as dramatic was the points total. For some reason, despite this being another Big Ten matchup with another elite defense, the majority again took the over on this one. While a slightly smaller majority of the bets took the over (69%) a whopping 78% of the handle did the same. I’m really not sure why. Indiana in their ranked games scored six points against Iowa, 24 against Cincinnati and were blanked in their last game against Penn State. Michigan State has been scoring much more than they usually do, but against Big Ten opponents the Spartans scored 38 (Week 1 against Northwestern), 23 and 31. It doesn’t seem like the scoring habits of those two teams should equal 48.5, and it didn’t.
The Patrick Beverly “He Trick Y’all” Award
#12 Oklahoma State at #25 Texas (Line: Texas -3.5, O/U 61)
Result: Oklahoma State wins 32-24
Despite Oklahoma State being ranked 13 spots higher, Texas was favored, and I have to believe a large part of that was due to Texas’ hard-fought game against Oklahoma. The home factor played into it as well probably, but I think people saw how potent the offense looked against Oklahoma and assumed Texas was that good. Turns out, they aren’t and Texas continues to not be back.
Oklahoma’s defense is always terrible, so putting up points on them really isn’t an achievement, and let’s not forget that Texas lost that game by blowing a massive lead. They also got to play against the Spencer Rattler led Sooners, who are a very different (and way better) beast with Caleb Williams. Point is, Texas got a weirdly large amount of clout for a game that they lost considering 65% of the tickets went in UT’s favor, and even more surprisingly 72% of the money. Well, the Texas trap can’t harm anyone else as they’ll fall outside the rankings after this one.
That’s it for Week 7. Another week in the bag, and things are only going to get more interesting. The Big Ten powerhouses are about to start cannibalizing each other. Cincinnati will try and hold on to become the first G5 school in the playoffs. Alabama will try to regain lost honor, and Oklahoma might be channeling a little bit of Ohio State and seeing if a midseason QB switch is the push they need to go the distance. Also Clemson still stinks so everyone except Clemson fans can always take solace in that.
For our weekly O/U check, the public was back to their normal shenanigans, favoring over 13/14 games. The handle majorities were a little more restrained, again as usual, favoring over 10/14 times instead. As for actual results, this week was severely under favored, with nine games going under. The only game that everyone was in agreement was under in the Ole Miss-Tennessee game, which had a ridiculous O/U of 82.5. Both tickets and money favored under by over 70%. Unless something out of the ordinary happens, this will be the last O/U review, since the trends have pretty much steadied. The ticket goes over too much, the money majority goes over slightly less, and the actual games are either 50/50 or under favored.
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