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Football has returned! Week 1 is almost finished and what a week it was. There were upsets, multiple close calls and the possible flipping of two CFB superpowers. A crazy week usually means crazy action in the world of betting, and this one was no exception. Let’s break down the numbers, shall we? (all odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
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Upset Alert
Chaos runs rampant in college football and it started early this year. Multiple AP top 25 teams got upset, many of whom were heavy favorites as they often are early in the year. Let’s run through the biggest ones.
#5 Georgia vs. #3 Clemson (Line: Clemson -3, O/U 51.5)
Result: Georgia wins 10-3
By pure rankings this wasn’t that big of an upset, but Clemson has been one of the unassailable kings of college football for the past five years, while Georgia has always been the team coming up short. Not this time. Georgia’s defense was out for blood, and Trevor Lawrence‘s successor D.J. Uiagalelei struggled to deal with the pressure.
Sixty percent of the game’s handle was on Clemson to cover, which isn’t the most lopsided upset but it shows Clemson was expected to win by the betting public. The even bigger surprise was both teams’ total inability to get things done on offense. Clemson had a total of 2 yards rushing with the sacks factored in, and Georgia QB JT Daniels threw for just 135 yards. With a game total of 52.5 and bettors taking the over 62% of the time, this was a clear miss.
Georgia’s defense looked as good as their offense looked questionable. That’ll probably lead to a lot of unders on point totals as the season goes on. Keep an eye on that one.
Montana at #20 Washington (Line: Washington -22.5, O/U 54.5)
Result: Montana wins 13-7
The first of two unranked upsets this week, Washington really failed to show up on offense. Washington QB Dylan Morris threw three picks, and his second one led to Montana’s only touchdown of the game which happened in the 4th quarter.
Montana’s defense held steady, and the Huskies didn’t have success through the ground or air. Offensively, Montana was more or less outclassed by the Washington defense (they had fewer yards than Washington, only gaining 232 total and were 2 of 13 on third down), but they scored when they needed to.
That turned what should have been a Washington blowout into a loss. A whopping 77% of the handle was placed on the Huskies, which was the second worst outright loss by percentage in Week 1. But the spread wasn’t the only place where the house got the best of the public: 80% of bets (and 82% of the total money) went on the over, which missed by 35 points.
#16 LSU at UCLA (Line: LSU -2.5, O/U 70.5)
Result: UCLA wins 38-27
The second unranked upset of the week wasn’t much of an upset in the eyes of bettors. While bettors backed LSU 66% of the time, the total handle was actually in favor of UCLA (55%) as the line shifted toward the Bruins from a -4.5 opener.
Unlike the first two games on this list, offense was more frequent in this one, but it was still nowhere near the projected total, and bettors were ready with 78% of the handle going to the under. UCLA had a balanced attack, gaining over 200 yards passing and rushing, while LSU was more one-dimensional in their offense. Only 49 of their 379 yards were on the ground.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, all three upsets went under by a large margin. When things don’t go as planned, it usually means the favored teams’ offense is struggling and turnovers are probably plentiful.
Protectors of Your Cash
As much as the upsets are the most exciting parts of football and betting, it’s often just as important to know which teams truly are safe bets.
Miami (OH) at #8 Cincinnati (Line: Cincinnati -22.5, O/U 49.5)
Result: Cincinnati wins 49-14
Arguably the biggest snub from last year’s playoffs, the Cincinnati Bearcats are determined to not get overlooked again. They came out guns blazing against the thoroughly outmatched RedHawks. Desmond Ridder, a low-key Heisman candidate, almost had has many touchdowns (4) as incompletions (5).
The defense, which was Cincinnati’s calling card last year also came to play, not surrendering any points until late in the fourth quarter, and the other score was made by Miami’s defense.
Cincy crushed the spread, and bettors knew they would. They had the most lopsided action of all the ranked games on Saturday, with 88% of the bets coming in for the Bearcats, and 80% of the money. Interestingly, the same can’t be said for the total, which was actually the second most split decision of all the ranked games. A vast majority of bets favored the over by a lot (70%) but the money came in for the under (65%). To be fair to under bettors, 21 points were scored in the final four minutes of the game. Bit of a bad beat there.
#1 Alabama vs. #14 Miami (FL) (Line: Alabama -19.5, O/U 61)
Result: Alabama wins 44-13
Another year, another dominant Alabama football team. Despite the game being ranked-on-ranked action, it certainly didn’t look the part with Alabama controlling this game from the jump.
The heir apparent to the Alabama dynasty, Bryce Young, looked comfortable and in control, which is bad news for the rest of the CFB. He diced Miami’s defense to the tune of 344 yards and four scores, and the Alabama offense didn’t look to have missed a beat from their 2020 Championship as they gained 501 yards total.
On the other side, D’Eriq King struggled to get anything but dinky completions through a tough Alabama defense, and Miami didn’t score at all until a field goal at the end of the half. King was 23/30, but had just 179 yards passing and threw two picks.
If you were wondering if Alabama is still the team to beat in the CFB, don’t wonder any more. They are. Given the betting numbers though, it doesn’t look like anyone was. The majority of the betting public (75%) placed their faith in Alabama despite the three-score spread, and they were duly rewarded.
Unfortunately, the same majority wasn’t quite as fortunate on the total. The game was so lopsided so quickly that Alabama let up on the gas and Miami couldn’t make up the deficit despite their best efforts. The only score in the fourth was a single Alabama field goal.
Failure to Launch
On the flip side of the teams that are committed to protecting your safe bets, there were a few teams that were heavily favored that failed to meet the mark, some quite spectacularly.
#19 Penn State at #12 Wisconsin (Line: Wisconsin -5.5, O/U 49)
Result: Penn State wins 16-10
The more things change, the more things stay the same, and a crucial Big Ten clash went about how it usually does. Questionable offenses met top-tier defenses which led to a game that didn’t see it’s first points until three minutes AFTER half.
Bettors were fooled by the Graham Mertz hype, and they paid for the sophomore QB’s disappointing two INT performance. 76% of bettors (and 78% of the cash) were sipping the Wisconsin Kool-Aid, which was the worst loss by handle percent for spreads. Penn State covering was one of the biggest needs for the house Saturday, and the Nittany Lions delivered with an outright win.
While total bets wanted offense, the cold hard cash knew a Big Ten matchup often leads to grind-out games. 54% of the money took the under, compared to 68% of the bets taking the over. Oddsmakers also knew the opening O/U (53.5) was a mistake, and the shift down to 49 by kickoff was one of the biggest moves of the week. But it wasn’t nearly enough in the end.
Florida Atlantic at #13 Florida (Line: Florida -23.5, O/U 52)
Result: Florida wins 35-14
In the battle of Florida, the bettors (and Florida Atlantic) lost. 77% of the betting action went to Florida, although “only” 62% of the money went that way. Willie Taggart‘s boys are no stranger to spoiling spreads, and they did it in almost intentional fashion. They were down 28-0 halfway through the fourth quarter, and scored two late, garbage time touchdowns to take bettors down with them. Their second score came with just 1:47 left in the game.
In near identical fashion to the spread, the points total saw 78% of the bets come in for the over, although a lower percentage (63%) of the money did the same. The over didn’t look like it had a chance most of the game, but both teams did their best to make it dramatic, with more than half of the games’ points coming in the fourth.
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Close Calls
The games that made bettors sweat, the ones that really make you jump for joy or break your phone in frustration.
Kent State at #6 Texas A&M (Line: Texas A&M -29.5, O/U 67)
Result: Texas A&M wins 41-10
The Aggies did their best to try and lose it for the 79% of the bettors that took them to cover, but just barely made the cut. They were up 34-3 near the start of the fourth, and a back and forth final period probably made someone faint. Kent State cut the deficit to 24 with 8:55 to go, and A&M quickly restored balance a minute later. At that point, bettors were probably breathing a sigh of relief, but the Aggies refused to let them get comfortable.
Texas A&M threw a bafflingly late interception (1:49 left in the game!) which gave the Golden Flashes a last chance to break some hearts. It took Kent all of 20 seconds to get into near unmissable field goal territory, and when they lined up for a last second kick at the TAMU 7-yard-line I’m sure many of the A&M bettors turned off the game in disgust. As befitting of such a chaotic fourth quarter, though, Kent State’s Andrew Glass missed a 24-yarder to preserve the TAMU cover.
It really doesn’t get much closer or more dramatic than that.
Week 1 of the 2021 CFB season brought more than it’s fair share of drama and chaos, and if Saturday was any preview of the rest of the season we are in for a good time. Razor-thin margins, big upsets and frantic finishes were on tap, and many games were incredibly interesting from a betting standpoint. I didn’t even get to mention the insane Tulane-Oklahoma game, where 78% of bettors (but just 51% of the handle) went to Oklahoma -31.5, which missed by a mile.
One overall trend that bears mentioning, Saturday’s point totals heavily skewed towards the under. Of 14 games involving ranked teams, 12 hit under, and many of them were under by quite a lot. In complete contrast, the betting action was firmly on the over. Twelve of the games had a majority of bets on the over, and 10 games had the handle skewing in the same direction. New season jitters, or a trend for the season? It’s too early to call, but it’s something to make note of.
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