ATL (Adjusted Thor Line) is a system I devised for determining line value. ATL lines are fluid, changing throughout the week as information arrives, just like the actual lines. PB lines courtesy of PointsBet.
| Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | PB Line | ATL | Day | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahamas Bowl | Toledo | Middle Tennessee | -10 | -12.8 | Friday, December 17 | Nassau, NP |
| Tailgreeter Cure Bowl | Coastal Carolina | Northern Illinois | -10.5 | -20.7 | Friday, December 17 | Orlando, FL |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Appalachian State | Western Kentucky | -3 | 2.0 | Saturday, December 18 | Boca Raton, FL |
| New Mexico Bowl | Fresno State | UTEP | -11.5 | -14.6 | Saturday, December 18 | Albuquerque, NM |
| Independence Bowl | BYU | UAB | -6.5 | -3.0 | Saturday, December 18 | Shreveport, LA |
| LendingTree Bowl | Liberty | Eastern Michigan | -9 | -12.5 | Saturday, December 18 | Mobile, AL |
| Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl | Oregon State | Utah State | -7 | -7.9 | Saturday, December 18 | Inglewood, CA |
| New Orleans Bowl | Louisiana | Marshall | -5 | -0.7 | Saturday, December 18 | New Orleans, LA |
| Myrtle Beach Bowl | Tulsa | Old Dominion | -9.5 | -8.8 | Monday, December 20 | Conway, SC |
| Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Wyoming | Kent State | -3 | -6.1 | Tuesday, December 21 | Boise, ID |
| Frisco Bowl | UTSA | San Diego State | -2.5 | -4.8 | Tuesday, December 21 | Frisco, TX |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Army | Missouri | -3.5 | -4.4 | Wednesday, December 22 | Fort Worth, TX |
| Frisco Football Classic | Miami (OH) | North Texas | -3 | -7.4 | Thursday, December 23 | Frisco, TX |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Florida | UCF | -6.5 | -8.5 | Thursday, December 23 | Saint Petersburg, FL |
| Hawai’i Bowl | Memphis | Hawaii | -7 | -3.3 | Friday, December 24 | Honolulu, HI |
| Camellia Bowl | Georgia State | Ball State | -4.5 | -7.1 | Saturday, December 25 | Montgomery, AL |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Western Michigan | Nevada | -3.5 | -0.1 | Monday, December 27 | Detroit, MI |
| Military Bowl | Boston College | East Carolina | -3 | -0.3 | Monday, December 27 | Annapolis, MD |
| Birmingham Bowl | Auburn | Houston | -3 | -1.8 | Tuesday, December 28 | Birmingham, AL |
| First Responder Bowl | Louisville | Air Force | -1.5 | -2.2 | Tuesday, December 28 | Dallas, TX |
| Liberty Bowl | Mississippi State | Texas Tech | -8.5 | -12.5 | Tuesday, December 28 | Memphis, TN |
| Holiday Bowl | NC State | UCLA | -1 | -4.1 | Tuesday, December 28 | San Diego, CA |
| Guaranteed Rate Bowl | Minnesota | West Virginia | -4 | -6.8 | Tuesday, December 28 | Phoenix, AZ |
| Wasabi Fenway Bowl | Virginia | SMU | -2 | -6.4 | Wednesday, December 29 | Boston, MA |
| New Era Pinstripe Bowl | Maryland | Virginia Tech | -1 | 2.8 | Wednesday, December 29 | Bronx, NY |
| Cheez-It Bowl | Iowa State | Clemson | -1 | -1.1 | Wednesday, December 29 | Orlando, FL |
| Valero Alamo Bowl | Oklahoma | Oregon | -5 | -11.3 | Wednesday, December 29 | San Antonio, TX |
| Duke’s Mayo Bowl | North Carolina | South Carolina | -7 | -10.2 | Thursday, December 30 | Charlotte, NC |
| Music City Bowl | Tennessee | Purdue | -4.5 | -7.7 | Thursday, December 30 | Nashville, TN |
| Peach Bowl | Pittsburgh | Michigan State | -2 | -10.9 | Thursday, December 30 | Atlanta, GA |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Wisconsin | Arizona State | -7 | -4.4 | Thursday, December 30 | Las Vegas, NV |
| Gator Bowl | Texas A&M | Wake Forest | -5 | -3.6 | Friday, December 31 | Jacksonville, FL |
| Sun Bowl | Miami | Washington State | -2.5 | -6.9 | Friday, December 31 | El Paso, TX |
| Arizona Bowl | Boise State | Central Michigan | -7.5 | -12.7 | Friday, December 31 | Tucson, AZ |
| CFP Semifinal: Cotton | Alabama | Cincinnati | -13.5 | -8.0 | Friday, December 31 | Arlington, TX |
| CFP Semifinal: Orange | Georgia | Michigan | -8 | -6.3 | Friday, December 31 | Miami Gardens, FL |
| Outback Bowl | Penn State | Arkansas | -2 | -2.6 | Saturday, January 1 | Tampa, FL |
| Fiesta Bowl | Notre Dame | Oklahoma State | -2 | 3.7 | Saturday, January 1 | Glendale, AZ |
| Vrbo Citrus Bowl | Kentucky | Iowa | -2.5 | -1.4 | Saturday, January 1 | Orlando, FL |
| Rose Bowl | Ohio State | Utah | -6.5 | -10.1 | Saturday, January 1 | Pasadena, CA |
| Sugar Bowl | Baylor | Mississippi | -1 | 2.4 | Saturday, January 1 | New Orleans, LA |
| TaxAct Texas Bowl | Kansas State | LSU | -1 | -5.7 | Tuesday, January 4 | Houston, TX |
Toledo (-10) vs. Middle Tennessee
ATL: Toledo -12.8
Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, NP
Middle Tennessee (6-6) qualified for bowl season when fourth-string QB Mike DiLiello came on in relief of injured QB3 Nick Vattiato to lead the team to 24 unanswered points in a 27-17 come-from-behind win over FAU.
Vattiato took over when Chase Cunningham went down with a season-ending injury in early-November. Cunningham had taken the keys when NC State transfer Bailey Hockman was benched in mid-September.
MTSU has a classic paper-tiger resume, fattening up by going 4-0 versus teams ATL ranked bottom-15 in the FBS. MTSU’s best win of the season, a 34-28 victory over ATL No. 58 Marshall, was a fluke. The Blue Raiders finished with a 12% postgame win expectancy.
Toledo ranks ATL No. 52. The Rockets’ run-first offense can be feast or famine. The rushing attack is top-3 in explosiveness in the country, and it’s also efficient. RB Bryant Koback also gets involved in the passing game and has posted over 1,600 yards from scrimmage with 18 TD.
As with the team’s rushing game, the passing attack is explosive – No. 15 in the FBS in that metric. Toledo QB Dequan Finn is a dual-threat with a 16/1 TD/INT rate and eight more scores on the ground. But while Finn takes care of the ball and can beat one-on-one coverage downfield, his accuracy issues can muck up the attack and lead to three-and-outs.
This can be seen in the Rockets’ average third-down distance of 8.4 yards (No. 123) and No. 129 ranking in avoiding third-and-long scenarios. But when there isn’t famine, Toledo is feasting.
The Rockets ranked No. 1 in the country by converting 100% of its third-and-short chances. You aren’t going to pick off Finn, and you aren’t going to keep Koback off the scoreboard. But if you can get Toledo into third-and-longs, watch them squirm.
I’m not sure MTSU is capable of dragging Toledo’s offense into deep waters. MTSU’s defense ranks No. 106 in forcing third-and-longs, and it is just as bad at defending on third-and-short as Toledo is excellent in converting, ranking No. 123 in success rate.
MTSU has one of the nation’s worst rushing attacks, so it is going to run into bouts of inefficiency here as well. Unfortunately, the Blue Raiders also have a bad run defense, which means Koback is going to go off. With preseason QB4 DiLiello likely starting for MTSU in a game it doesn’t match up well in, Toledo should end its season on a high-note.
Coastal Carolina (-10.5) vs. Northern Illinois
ATL: CC -20.7
Tailgreeter Cure Bowl
Orlando, FL
Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall returned from his shoulder injury in the penultimate game against Texas State after missing the previous two. He went 22-for-28 for 319 yards and five TD in a 35-21 win. But in the season finale, McCall struggled, going 16-for-25 for 176 yards with a TD and an INT while getting sacked five times in a 27-21 OT win over South Alabama.
In the two previous games, the ones Bryce Carpenter started in place of the injured McCall, the Chanticleers went 1-1. Coastal beat Georgia Southern 28-8, but was upset by Georgia State 42-40. In all of the country, McCall is one of the most valuable players to his team. A McCall injury is worth one of the biggest point-spread deductions in the country.
My system would favor Coastal by -25.0 and -12.3 against Georgia State and Georgia Southern, today. Coastal underachieved that with Carpenter by 19 points, or a 9.5 PPG margin. I gauged McCall’s absence as worth seven points on the number.
Look above at the discrepancy between the PointsBet number and my number on this game. It sure looks like McCall’s return is being baked into the number at all, does it? Sure, McCall didn’t play well in the finale. But remember, Carpenter’s numbers are baked into the aggregate numbers as well, meaning Coastal’s power ranking is probably a tick artificially deflated.
It’s not just confusion over McCall’s status that is giving us value on Coastal Carolina. It’s also the deceiving resume of the opponent. The Huskies’ nine-win improvement -- 0-6 to 9-4 MAC champs -- earned second-year HC Thomas Hammock a finalist nod for the Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year Award, and NIU went 5-3 ATS as an underdog.
But NIU was just about as lucky as Nebraska was unlucky in 2021. NIU won four games by two points or less, and won another in OT. That’s the most two-point-or-less wins in a season since 2007 Virginia won five such games. In addition, NIU had two one-possession wins, and two one-possession losses (and they were blown out twice).
NIU’s luck can be seen in their 6.2 second-order wins (-2.8). That suggests the Huskies are more like a 6-7 team than a 9-4 team. Having played the No. 104 SOS. This is why, despite the nine wins and MAC trophy, ATL only ranks NIU No. 97, two spots ahead of 6-6 North Texas and four spots ahead of 6-6 Old Dominion.
Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, is by all accounts a stronger team than they are being given credit for on this spread. ATL believes the Chants are one of the best values in all of bowl season.
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2021: 71-67-3 (51.4%) ATS
2014-2020: 610-540-17 (53.0%) ATS
