ATL (Adjusted Thor Line) is a system I devised for determining line value. ATL lines are fluid, changing throughout the week as information arrives, just like the actual lines. PB lines courtesy of PointsBet.
| Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | PB Line | ATL | Day | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahamas Bowl | Toledo | Middle Tennessee | -10 | -12.8 | Friday, December 17 | Nassau, NP |
| Tailgreeter Cure Bowl | Coastal Carolina | Northern Illinois | -10.5 | -20.7 | Friday, December 17 | Orlando, FL |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Appalachian State | Western Kentucky | -3 | 2.0 | Saturday, December 18 | Boca Raton, FL |
| New Mexico Bowl | Fresno State | UTEP | -11.5 | -14.6 | Saturday, December 18 | Albuquerque, NM |
| Independence Bowl | BYU | UAB | -7 | -3.0 | Saturday, December 18 | Shreveport, LA |
| LendingTree Bowl | Liberty | Eastern Michigan | -9.5 | -12.5 | Saturday, December 18 | Mobile, AL |
| Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl | Oregon State | Utah State | -7.5 | -7.9 | Saturday, December 18 | Inglewood, CA |
| New Orleans Bowl | Louisiana | Marshall | -5 | 0.3 | Saturday, December 18 | New Orleans, LA |
| Myrtle Beach Bowl | Tulsa | Old Dominion | -9.5 | -8.8 | Monday, December 20 | Conway, SC |
| Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Wyoming | Kent State | -3 | -6.1 | Tuesday, December 21 | Boise, ID |
| Frisco Bowl | UTSA | San Diego State | -2.5 | -4.8 | Tuesday, December 21 | Frisco, TX |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Army | Missouri | -3.5 | -4.4 | Wednesday, December 22 | Fort Worth, TX |
| Frisco Football Classic | Miami (OH) | North Texas | -3 | -7.4 | Thursday, December 23 | Frisco, TX |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Florida | UCF | -6.5 | -8.5 | Thursday, December 23 | Saint Petersburg, FL |
| Hawai’i Bowl | Memphis | Hawaii | -7 | -3.3 | Friday, December 24 | Honolulu, HI |
| Camellia Bowl | Georgia State | Ball State | -4.5 | -7.1 | Saturday, December 25 | Montgomery, AL |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Western Michigan | Nevada | -3.5 | -0.1 | Monday, December 27 | Detroit, MI |
| Military Bowl | Boston College | East Carolina | -3 | -0.3 | Monday, December 27 | Annapolis, MD |
| Birmingham Bowl | Auburn | Houston | -3 | -1.8 | Tuesday, December 28 | Birmingham, AL |
| First Responder Bowl | Louisville | Air Force | -1.5 | -2.2 | Tuesday, December 28 | Dallas, TX |
| Liberty Bowl | Mississippi State | Texas Tech | -8.5 | -12.5 | Tuesday, December 28 | Memphis, TN |
| Holiday Bowl | NC State | UCLA | -1 | -4.1 | Tuesday, December 28 | San Diego, CA |
| Guaranteed Rate Bowl | Minnesota | West Virginia | -4 | -6.8 | Tuesday, December 28 | Phoenix, AZ |
| Wasabi Fenway Bowl | Virginia | SMU | -2 | -6.4 | Wednesday, December 29 | Boston, MA |
| New Era Pinstripe Bowl | Maryland | Virginia Tech | -1 | 2.8 | Wednesday, December 29 | Bronx, NY |
| Cheez-It Bowl | Iowa State | Clemson | -1 | -1.1 | Wednesday, December 29 | Orlando, FL |
| Valero Alamo Bowl | Oklahoma | Oregon | -5 | -11.3 | Wednesday, December 29 | San Antonio, TX |
| Duke’s Mayo Bowl | North Carolina | South Carolina | -7 | -10.2 | Thursday, December 30 | Charlotte, NC |
| Music City Bowl | Tennessee | Purdue | -4.5 | -7.7 | Thursday, December 30 | Nashville, TN |
| Peach Bowl | Pittsburgh | Michigan State | -2 | -10.9 | Thursday, December 30 | Atlanta, GA |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Wisconsin | Arizona State | -7 | -4.4 | Thursday, December 30 | Las Vegas, NV |
| Gator Bowl | Texas A&M | Wake Forest | -5 | -3.6 | Friday, December 31 | Jacksonville, FL |
| Sun Bowl | Miami | Washington State | -2.5 | -6.9 | Friday, December 31 | El Paso, TX |
| Arizona Bowl | Boise State | Central Michigan | -7.5 | -12.7 | Friday, December 31 | Tucson, AZ |
| CFP Semifinal: Cotton | Alabama | Cincinnati | -13.5 | -8.0 | Friday, December 31 | Arlington, TX |
| CFP Semifinal: Orange | Georgia | Michigan | -8 | -6.3 | Friday, December 31 | Miami Gardens, FL |
| Outback Bowl | Penn State | Arkansas | -2 | -2.6 | Saturday, January 1 | Tampa, FL |
| Fiesta Bowl | Notre Dame | Oklahoma State | -2 | 3.7 | Saturday, January 1 | Glendale, AZ |
| Vrbo Citrus Bowl | Kentucky | Iowa | -2.5 | -1.4 | Saturday, January 1 | Orlando, FL |
| Rose Bowl | Ohio State | Utah | -6.5 | -10.1 | Saturday, January 1 | Pasadena, CA |
| Sugar Bowl | Baylor | Mississippi | -1 | 2.4 | Saturday, January 1 | New Orleans, LA |
| TaxAct Texas Bowl | Kansas State | LSU | -1 | -5.7 | Tuesday, January 4 | Houston, TX |
Western Kentucky (+3) vs. Appalachian State
ATL: WKU -2.0
Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, FL
WKU QB Bailey Zappe is expected to play one last time under OC Zach Kittley. After the game, Zappe will begin preparations for the Senior Bowl and Kittley will take off for Texas Tech, where he’ll become Joey McGuire‘s first OC (it’s a homecoming – Kittley previously worked with Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech).
The Zappe news is crucial. So too is the play-calling presence of Kittley. WKU HC Tyson Helton lost his other co-offensive coordinator, Bryan Ellis, to his brother Clay at Georgia Southern. Ellis left immediately for that OC job and won’t be around on Saturday.
The Hilltoppers look like they’ll be playing without injured starters DT Jeremy Darvin and LB Will Ignont. However, transfer-portal bound WR2 Mitchell Tinsley (80-1299-12), OT Mason Brooks (two-time All-CUSA) and CB1 Beanie Bishop (first-team All-CUSA) will all stick around for this game. Each is likely eying a move to the Power 5 in 2022.
On the Appalachian State side, the Mountaineers have one huge absence to contend with: WR1 Corey Sutton recently underwent surgery and is out for this game. Sutton had 24 more targets and 10 more catches than ASU’s next-highest finisher.
That’s a significant loss. Unlike past Mountaineers teams, this version is better passing (No. 7 success rate) than running (No. 68 success rate). But as in the past, Appy is a defensive-minded squad. Which makes this a strength-on-strength stylistic fight.
The Hilltoppers have one of the nation’s best passing attacks, lethally efficient, if not super explosive. WKU’s pass defense is merely below-average, whereas its run defense is one of the five-worst in the nation. The shoddy run defense directly led to all five losses, against Army, Wisconsin, Indiana, and twice against UTEP.
Appalachian State does not have the run game those teams do, save for Indiana, and the Mountaineers summarily won’t be able to dictate terms in the same way. And this is a tricky step up in competition for the Sun Belt runner-ups. Appy played only five opponents within the ATL top-78. They lost three of those games (Miami and twice to Louisiana). The two wins (over Coastal Carolina and Marshall) were by a combined four points.
Sitting at 56 TD passes, WKU’s Zappe has a shot to break Joe Burrow’s single-season record of 60. It’s a showcase opportunity for Zappe in advance of the Senior Bowl. I think the Hilltoppers will upset the Mountaineers.
Fresno State (-11.5) vs. UTEP
ATL: FSU -14.6
New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM
UTEP entered this season 5-39 since 2017. Slow progress could be seen during last year’s COVID-truncated season, with UTEP getting three of those wins (3-5). The Miners still came into this season very much off-the-radar. UTEP started 6-1. And ultimately finished the regular season 7-4 ATS. But just as UTEP gave hints they were moving out of the FBS doldrums last year, they’ve also given hints that they aren’t ready to compete with the big boys.
The Miners limped to a 1-4 finish after that hot start, closing the regular season 7-5. That stretch of course coincided with the tough portion of the schedule. UTEP did not beat a team inside the ATL top-100. The Miners’ only win over a bowl team was 6-6 Old Dominion. The Monarchs are the only bowl team ATL ranks higher than UTEP.
UTEP’s other six wins were against teams that went 17-53, including an FCS team. Those were the games UTEP looked good in. UTEP went 7-1 ATS as favorites or single-digit underdogs, but 0-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs. Those were the three games UTEP played against top-90 ATL teams. In those three games, against Boise State, UAB and UTSA, UTEP lost by 26.3 PPG.
So it wasn’t a surprise that this line opened at Fresno State -14.5, coincidently, just about exactly what my adjusted line is. After all, Fresno only lost by seven to then-No. 11 Oregon, and beat then-No. 13 UCLA and then-No. 21 San Diego State.
But when Fresno State HC Kalen DeBoer and OC Ryan Grubb left for the same positions Washington, and when rumors started that that QB Jake Haener (3,810 yards and 32 TD) was going with them, the line plummeted all the way to the -11.5 you see now.
But Haener reversed course and is headed back to Fresno State. In 2022, he’ll play for Jeff Tedford, who’s returning to the school after taking the last two seasons off. Tedford won’t take over until after the bowl game. FSU RB coach Lee Marks will act as interim head coach, while WR coach Kirby Moore (Kellen’s brother) will call plays for the first time as interim OC.
UTEP certainly has the motivation edge, as they haven’t won a bowl game since the 1967 Sun Bowl. But if Haener is behind center, the Miners almost certainly won’t have the artillery to keep up with Fresno State’s offense.
The past 15 years have taught us that we shouldn’t be afraid of backing favorites with interim staffs in bowl season. There’ve been 66 bowl games with an interim coach since 2005. The replacement coaches are 31-35 SU and 30-35-1 ATS, per research from The Action Network’s John Ewing that I augmented with results from the past two years.
There doesn’t appear to be much of an angle there, but when you look into the splits that changes a bit. Favorites with interim staffs are 23-11 (67.6%) SU and 18-15-1 (54.5%) ATS, while underdogs are 8-24 SU (25.0%) and 12-20 (37.5%) ATS.
That suggests Fresno State might not play down without DeBoer. And if so, they’re going to blast UTEP’s doors off.
UAB (+7) vs. BYU
ATL: BYU -3.0
Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA
When I ran my initial ATL lines for bowl season, UAB +8 jumped out as one of the best values on the board. Since then, sharps have steamed the Blazers beneath the key touchdown number to +6.5. I still like UAB. BYU’s offense against UAB’s defense is the main card. But the game – and the cover – may be decided on the undercard, when BYU’s terrible defense tries to keep UAB’s downhill but limited offense on its own side of the field.
The Blazers will have to make due without injured RB1 Dewayne McBride, who nearly hit 1,200 rushing yards on 6.8 YPC. It’ll be Jermaine Brown Jr.’s show. Brown is every bit as dangerous as McBride outside the tackles, but he’s not nearly the inside runner. Don’t assume that’s going to tank the offense. UAB HC Bill Clark is one of the best in the business. He tailors scheme-to-player, and not vice-versa.
You’re used to seeing UAB pound away at defensive interiors using jackhammer backs like Spencer Brown and McBride. Expect UAB to force BYU’s EDGE defenders to prove they can actually set that edge. UAB QB Dylan Hopkins is a better scrambler than the deposed Tyler Johnston (now in the transfer portal) – you can bet he’ll be incorporated into Clark’s plan to find out if BYU can tackle in space. BYU ranks No. 87 in PFF tackling, No. 92 in defensive rush success rate and No. 82 in havoc.
BYU’s pass defense is better than its run defense, but the Cougars notably have issues defending tight ends, allowing 52 yards or more TE receiving yards in four of seven games against Power 5 competition this year. UAB’s not that, but Blazers TE Gerrit Prince is a P5-caliber talent. Prince ran the third-most routes on the team but led it in targets, receptions and receiving touchdowns. A rangy 6-foot-5, 240-pounder, Prince challenges the seam with impunity, averaging 20.5 YPC. If BYU cheats on the run, Prince will make them pay.
BYU surprised me this year, going 10-2 (6-0 against the Pac-12 and ACC) after losing QB Zach Wilson. HC Kalani Sitake got a deserved mega-extension. The Cougars offense somehow managed to finish No. 17 SP+. That obfuscated a defense regression to middle-of-the-pack, a special teams regression to worse. BYU’s resume may artificially inflated.
The win over Utah came before Cameron Rising had taken over. The 10-point margin over Arizona State flattered BYU (56% postgame win expectancy). BYU should have lost to Wazzu the week after Nick Rolosvich and several assistants were ousted in unprecedented circumstances, only winning 21-19 with a 31% postgame win expectancy. A 66-49 shootout win over Virginia was spurred by a 21-0 BYU 4Q run that saw Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong leave with a rib injury. BYU came-from-behind in the final minutes to beat USC 35-31.
BYU’s -1.9 second-order wins suggest they’re more like an 8-4 team than a 10-2 team. BYU went 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, hinting at the artificial inflation baked into their spreads. Conversely, UAB went 6-1 ATS over their last seven. The Blazers play tougher, have a more defined identity, and have the superior coaching staff. I expect them to win outright.
Liberty (-9.5) vs. Eastern Michigan
ATL: Liberty -12.5
LendingTree Bowl
Mobile, AL
Let’s get this out of the way first and foremost: Liberty QB Malik Willis says he will play. (And why wouldn’t he want to play a final game against no-defense EMU following a 12-interception regular season?). Willis has joked that Mobile will be his “home” for the next few months. Willis will attend the Senior Bowl, also in Mobile, next month.
More was expected from the Flames off a 10-1 season with 20 starters returning, including a first-round prospect at quarterback. Instead, the Flames regressed to 7-5, including three-straight losses to close the season (Mississippi, Louisiana and Army).
Eastern Michigan has a decent passing defense, but the Eagles have one of the nation’s worst run defenses. EMU coughed up 196 rushing YPG during the regular season and ranked No, 127 in rushing success rate. That’s problematic against Willis, arguably the most dangerous ground threat we’ve seen at quarterback since Lamar Jackson. Willis ran for 1,162 yards and 11 TD on 8.4 YPC with sacks omitted.
Liberty’s biggest Achilles heals on offense are Willis’ propensity to cough the ball up (last year it was fumbles, this year it’s interceptions), and Willis’ struggles under pressure, which leads to sacks and incompletions (and sometimes turnovers). EMU is not equipped to take advantage of these issues, ranking No. 122 in overall havoc rate with a negative turnover differential.
EMU was a fun team to watch on MACtion this year. But if we’re being honest, they’re lucky to be here. The Eagles have an identical 7-5 record to Liberty, but with 4.9 second-order wins. Three different times this season EMU pulled a rabbit out of its hat with a win on 28% win expectancy or lower.
Liberty is the opposite in that it has 8.2 second-order wins. The Flames’ two-most embarrassing losses – to Syracuse and UL-Monroe – each came by a field goal in games Liberty finished with above 50% win expectancies.
I don’t know why Willis would play in this game if he wasn’t motivated to put on a show. Remember: This quarterback class is still wide-open, and Willis is among those vying for QB1. Any movement upward on the board could be worth millions of dollars. I think Liberty rolls.
Utah State (+7.5) vs. Oregon State
ATL: OSU -7.9
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Inglewood, CA
Oregon State upset USC, Utah and Arizona State en route to a 7-5 record. But the Beavers were themselves upset by Washington State, Colorado and Cal. The Beavers are a one-handed team. The strength is a big one, with Oregon State’s rushing attack ranking No. 9 with 217.8 rushing YPG. Pac-12 leading rusher RB B.J. Baylor broke out with 1,259 rushing yards and 13 TD.
But Oregon State’s weaknesses are just as pronounced. The Beavers’ pass defense ranks No. 96 (241.1 YPG allowed). The pass-rush is non-existent, and the run defense has issues getting a push and making tackles. The Beavers’ No. 85 SP+ defense allowed 50.9% of third-downs to be converted, fourth-worst in the FBS. To make matters worse, Pac-12 leading tackler OSU LB Avery Roberts will not play against the Aggies due to injury.
Utah State just had a fabulous showing in the Mountain West title game against San Diego State’s powerful rushing attack. The Aggies’ run defense has improved as the season has gone on and ranks No. 62 with 144.7 YPG allowed in the aggregate. Oregon State’s get-you-over passing game will have to make due without WR2 Tre’Shaun Harrison in the first half due to a carry-over penalty from getting ejected against Oregon.
Utah State should be able to deal with Oregon State’s running game better than Oregon State can deal with Utah State’s passing game. The Aggies rank No. 18 in passing YPG and No. 7 in passing explosion. That aerial attack takes direct aim at Oregon State’s biggest weakness. Utah State ranks No. 3 in the country in third-and-long success rate (recall Oregon State’s third-down issues).
Utah State finished 10-3 season and was a giant slayer, going 5-2 ATS as an underdog with five outright upsets. I think the Aggies close out their season with a sixth.
Marshall (+5) vs. Louisiana
ATL: Marshall -0.3
New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA
Louisiana has won 12-straight since dropping the opener to Texas. HC Billy Napier left for Florida after the Sun Belt title game. Also missing from Louisiana’s sideline on Saturday because they followed Napier to Florida: DC/OLB coach Patrick Toney, RB coach Jabbar Juluke, strength and conditioning coach Mark Hocke and offensive analyst Ryan O’Hara. The Ragin’ Cajuns elevated TE coach and co-DC Michael Desormeaux to interim HC.
Both teams have good offensive lines and run the ball well. But Louisiana will be without the lead back of its platoon, Chris Smith, due to injury (DT Tayland Humphrey will also not play). RB Montrell Johnson will assume the full-load. QB Levi Lewis might have a long afternoon against Marshall’s No. 14 defense (315.3 YPG allowed).
Marshall QB Grant Wells is going to play, which means the Thundering Herd will have the more dangerous aerial attack. But Louisiana’s secondary is a strength, with ULL ranking No. 18 in success rate against the pass. Where Marshall has a big edge is its running game and short passing attack against Louisiana’s tackling-averse front-seven. RB Rasheen Ali (1,241 rushing yards and 20 TD with a 31-264-1 line) should have a field day against a ULL defense that ranks No. 87 in tackling and No. 90 in DL havoc rate.
Marshall (7-5) went 6-5 ATS, but curiously was poor at home (1-4 ATS) and awesome away from it, going 5-1 ATS on the road. Louisiana’s record was propped up by playing the No. 118 SOS. The Ragin’ Cajuns have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games. I think Marshall springs the upset.
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2021 regular season: 71-67-3 (51.4%) ATS
2021 bowl season: 0-0 (0.0%) ATS
2014-2020: 610-540-17 (53.0%) ATS
