SPREAD BET
Utah State might have the more talented team – and play in the more competitive conference – but Kent State does have one major advantage it could very well leverage to an upset victory. The Golden Flashes were one of the most responsible teams in the country with the football, ranking seventh in Division I with just 11 turnovers; its two interceptions were third-fewest in the nation.
While the Aggies finished 12th in the nation in turnovers forced with 23, they gave it up 23 times themselves, ranking among the worst offenders in college football in that category. Kent State might not win, but it should cover.
PICK: Kent State +7
TOTAL BET
It’s reasonable to expect both sides to threaten a big score here; Kent State scored 30+ points in five of its final six games overall, while Utah State finished in the Top-50 nationally in total offense despite facing a handful of difficult opponents.
There are other factors working in both teams’ favor, as well: both teams rank inside the top 40 in third-down conversion rate but are in the bottom-20 in third-down conversion defense. Both teams also rank below the national average in red-zone success rate against. Just about any way you look at it, this one could be decided by which team gets to 40 points first.
PICK: Over 65
ALTERNATE BET
Don’t be surprised to see the Golden Flashes get off to a lightning-fast start (pardon the pun.) Kent State has scored 17 or more first-half points in three of its previous four games, highlighted by a 24-point first-half eruption in a 34-26 road victory over Central Michigan to close out its MAC campaign.
That aligns well with Utah State’s recent first-half defensive struggles; the Aggies have surrendered a whopping 87 first-half points over their previous three games, with 73 coming in their final two games of the season. Utah State might be able to adjust at the half, but Kent State is a good bet to make some waves before the break.
PICK: Kent State Over 1H team total
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TRENDS TO WATCH
• Aggies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
• Under is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 bowl games.
• Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Under is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 non-conference games.
