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Bowling Green at Tennessee (-35)
The Josh Heupel era begins in Tennessee!
The Vols will host the Bowling Green Falcons in a packed house filled with Orange and White.
The Vols open as 35-point favorites, and that is no surprise since Heupel led the UFC Golden Knights to an AAC-best 42.2 ppg, 568.1 total ypg and 357.4 passing ypg last season.
Bowling Green finished 0-5 last season and currently owns an eight-game losing streak. Amid that streak, the Falcons allow an average of 48.0 ppg and the best part -- all eight teams are MAC opponents.
The Falcons have faced six different Power 5 schools, plus Notre Dame since 2017 and the last six scored at least 45 points. Three of the last four, I will point out, all went Under the 60.5 total we have tonight.
Bowling Green is 1-6 ATS (14.2%) in those six games versus Power 5 schools and lost by an average of 40.4 ppg in all seven and 43.0 ppg in the past six, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Five of those seven games went Under 60.5 despite the Falcons getting smacked.
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I target Tennessee’s First Half Spread of -21.5, but I cannot lie, I wanted to bet Tennessee’s Team Total earlier in the week but at 47.5 or 48.0, I don’t think Tennessee will be a guarantee to hit that.
As stated prior, Bowling Green enters on an eight-game losing streak and during that stretch, the Falcons lost by an average of 36.6 PPG to MAC opponents.
In 2020, versus the five MAC opponents, Bowling Green averaged 6.5 PPG in the first half, hitting 10 points twice.
They allowed an average of 28.4 PPG in the first two quarters, so a 21.9-point gap gives us the 21.5 line halftime line tonight. In the last eight games, the final score has been lower than 61 in five of eight (62.5%) with a 62 in there.
The 1H and final three games of 2019 - Part of BG’S eight-game losing streak
Buffalo led 35-7 -- won 49-7
Ohio led 38-24 -- won 66-24
Miami led 37-3 -- won 44-3
1H vs. MAC IN 2020 - lost all five games for eight-straight
Toledo led 21-0 -- won 38-3
Kent State led 38-10 -- won 62-24
Buffalo led 21-3 -- won 42-17
Ohio led 45-10 -- won 52-10
Akron led 17-3 -- won 31-3
Bowling Green failed to cover the +21.5 1H line four of the previous eight games during this losing streak, escaping two with a 21 and 18 point halftime deficit to Toledo and Buffalo. Their opponent has scored 48 or more points in four of the eight games as well.
The Falcons are led by senior quarterback Matt McDonald, who had 712 passing yards, one touchdown and six interceptions over five games last year.
For Tennessee, Heupel named Michigan transfer Joe Milton III the starting quarterback. At Michigan, Milton played 14 career games and recorded 1,350 yards of total offense with eight touchdowns (5 pass, 3 rush).
Milton is a 6-foot-5 and 244 lbs quarterback that has a strong arm but lacks accuracy. In 2020, Milton went 80-of-141 passing (56.7%) in six games but only recorded four touchdowns to four interceptions over five starts versus Minnesota, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin and Rutgers.
That means we have two inaccurate passers and less than capable offenses with a new coach on the home side.
This matchup is a great tune-up for a second straight home game against Pitt. After that, Tennessee has a third consecutive home game versus Tennessee Tech.
I anticipate the Vols scoring around 24-35 points in the first half, so let’s play Tennessee’s first half spread of -21.5 and the full game Under 60.5 as well.
I think the Vols can hold Bowling Green to seven or fewer points in the first half and score 28-plus themselves.
The second half will slow down a ton, because similar to our UCLA-Hawaii Under last week, the Vols will not want to show the Pitt Panthers too much on offense for game planning.
They should handle Bowling Green just fine, so play the Vols’ 1H spread and full game Under 60.5.
Pick: Tennessee 1H -21.5 (1u), Under 60.5 (1u)
Out of all the games, Tennessee and Bowling Green’s Under 60.5 is one of NBC’s model’s favorite plays. Use my promo code VAUGHN10 for a discount.
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