Week 1 of the college football season is officially upon us. After a year of socially distanced games in 2020, it’s time to properly renew rivalries and restore traditions.
Of course, no college football season would be complete without upsets, and fortunately for us, Week 1 may just deliver some.
Last night we saw Virginia Tech upset Sam Howell and the 10th ranked Tar Heels 17-10 in Blacksburg, but a few more upsets could unfold before the dust finally settles on college football’s long-awaited return.
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Using the NBC Sports Edge Live Odds Tool, we’ll take a look at two significant road underdogs (+7 or more) according to PointsBet Sportsbook, who could be in line for an upset this weekend.
No. 21 Texas (-8) vs. No. 23 University Louisiana - Lafayette
The last time these two teams faced off against one another (2005), I was in high school and the Ragin’ Cajuns were +39.5 underdogs who suffered a 60-3 loss at the hands of Vince Young and Jamaal Charles.
It’s safe to say that a lot has changed since then, and the Ragin’ Cajuns are ready to prove it.
Coming off a season in which they went 10-1, ULL and head coach Billy Napier return 10 starters on an offense that ranked 29th in points per game (33.6) and 10 starters on a defense that ranked 31st in points allowed per game (22.0).
Senior quarterback Levi Lewis returns for his fifth year after throwing for 2,274 yards, 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions last season, and rushing for an additional 335 yards and five scores.
On the other side of the ball, the Longhorns ready for the Steve Sarkisian era as he returns to his first head coaching job since 2015 (University of Southern California).
Unlike the Cajuns, the Longhorns return eight offensive starters and seven defensive starters, as they now prepare for life without quarterback Sam Ehlinger. Former four star QB prospect Hudson Card will make his first career start, replacing Ehlinger, after beating out junior Casey Thompson for the starting role this offseason.
The Longhorns will look to lean on sophomore running back Bijan Robinson even more in 2021 after he rushed for 718 yards and four touchdowns on just 86 carries last season.
In regards to the spread, opening lines favored Texas (-10.5), but have slowly moved in favor of ULL throughout the week (-8).
Despite their underdog status this weekend, ULL is no stranger to road success.
They’ve gone 11-1 in their last 12 road games, and 8-4 against the spread over that span. Since Napier took over as head coach in 2018, the Cajuns are 7-3 ATS as road underdogs and boast a 3-1 record as road dogs since 2019.
Texas on the other hand has gone 9-3 in its last 12 home games, but are just 4-7-1 against the spread and finds itself under a new regime against the 23rd ranked team in the nation.
The spread moving closer to ULL could be an indicator that bettors were more on the Cajuns than oddsmakers expected them to be when the line first dropped.
With a veteran presence and countless road successes, it’s easy to see a scenario in which the Ragin’ Cajuns don’t just cover the spread, but outright beat Sarkisian and the Longhorns.
Ole Miss (-10) vs. Louisville (Monday, September 6th @ 8:00 PM)
The Ole Miss Rebels boast one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Matt Corral, but are also coming off a 5-5 season in which they finished 118th in points allowed per game (38.3). While the defense is returning nine starters from last season, it’s hard to get excited about a defensive unit as defunct as Ole Miss returning all but two starters.
While the Rebels defense could see an improvement in 2021, it’s hard to imagine them looking like an improved group on Monday night against Louisville in a game that features the highest total of any Week 1 game (O/U 75.5).
Junior quarterback Malik Cunningham returns to the Cardinals in hopes of improving on a season which his team finished 4-7 after going 8-5 the year before.
Cunningham finished 2020 with 2,617 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while also rushing for 609 yards and seven touchdowns. Running back Jalen Mitchell takes over for the departed Javian Hawkins, after rushing for 347 yards and two touchdowns on 52 carries last season. Mitchell averaged 6.7 yards per carry last season, and posted a 20/168 rushing line against Wake Forest to close out the season.
In total, Louisville boasts seven returning starters on offense and six returning starters on a defense that ranked 49th in points allowed per game (26.6).
When the lines first opened for this game, Ole Miss entered as -8 point favorites, only to see it jump to -10. While the direction of this line move presents a scenario opposite the one we discussed previously with ULL and Texas, the NBC Sports Edge Top Trends tool gives us reason to believe that the Rebels are getting too much credit against a formidable Louisville team.
Sorting the top trends by the strongest available to us in the game we see the following:
It’s no secret that the Rebels have been unimpressive in recent memory. Over the last two seasons, they boast a 9-13 record, and are an even 6-6 at home.
For the Cardinals, they are 13-10-1 against the spread since 2019, averaging 31.5 points per game as a team. However, they are also an unimpressive 5-8-1 against the spread as underdogs.
Despite their underwhelming record ATS as underdogs, a bet on Louisville this weekend is a bet on a productive offense, led by an elite rushing QB, that is going up against a porous defense.
In this case, we may just get all three.
UPDATE: Since publishing this article, Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin (COVID-19) will miss Monday night’s matchup.
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