Week 1 of the college football season officially got underway, and upsets were aplenty from start to finish. Sam Howell and the Tar Heels suffered a tough loss to the Hokies in Blacksburg. Randy Edsall was forced into retirement (or something along those lines) after Holy Cross’ unprecedented win over UConn 38-28. And The Clemson Tigers fell to the Georgia Bulldogs by a score of 10-3 in a game where neither offense found the end zone.
With all the madness that ensued last week, the only proper thing to do is run it back in Week 2 with teams poised to defy Vegas oddsmakers by not just beating the spread, but outright winning their matchup.
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No. 9 Iowa State (-4.5) vs. No. 10 Iowa
Iowa State enters this week as a 4.5 point favorite over Iowa, but bettors don’t seem to mind putting all of their money on the Hawkeyes early on.
As it stands right now, 94% of bets and 96% of money is on Iowa, with the spread moving a full point since it opened at 3.5.
With both teams currently ranked right next to each other, a tightly contested game should be in store, as Iowa State looks to win its first game over Iowa since 2014.
Last week, Iowa got off to a quick start against Big Ten rival Indiana. The Hoosiers entered the game as +3.5 underdogs, but found themselves on the wrong end of a 34-6 shellacking thanks to a solid rushing performance by junior running back Tyler Goodson of 19/99/1 and a defensive effort that held the Hoosiers to 239 total yards and forced three interceptions.
Iowa State running back Breece Hall will look to build on his 23/69/1 rushing effort from last week as he and the Cyclones narrowly escaped Week 1 with a victory over Northern Iowa, despite being favored by -28.5.
Given the underwhelming performance by Iowa State against Northern Iowa, and the dominant victory by Iowa over Indiana last week, it’s no surprise to see a large amount of the money coming in on Iowa.
Looking at current trends in the Edge Finder tool, we can see that in their last five matchups, Iowa is 3-1-1 against the spread, and 5-0 on the money line. The under has had slightly more success than the over during this span.
When I cross over the Virginia state lines like a true degenerate to cast a few weekend bets, I can assure you that Iowa at +4.5 will be on my ticket.
Nebraska (-14) vs. Buffalo
It’s safe to say that the Scott Frost era in Nebraska has been a disappointment.
After spending two seasons at the University of Central Florida where he posted a 19-7 record, including a 13-0 record in 2017, Frost has gone 13-21 in four seasons at his alma mater.
With Frost’s future at Nebraska already in question heading into 2021, the Cornhuskers came and lost in Week 0 to an Illinois team whose projected win total sat at o/u 3.5 to start the season. They rebounded last week with an easy win over FCS Fordham (52-7), but now face a 1-0 Buffalo team that is coming of a 2020 season in which it went 6-1 while outscoring opponents 304-153.
Heading into their home matchup against Buffalo, Nebraska finds itself as 14-point home favorites, but that isn’t impressing the public. Much like Iowa vs. Iowa State, bettors have proven to be much higher on Buffalo than they have Nebraska, who faces arguably their toughest challenge on the young season.
The Bulls return just four starters on offense and six starters on defense from last season. In addition to losing three-of-five starters on the offensive line, their 2020 leader in rushing yards, Jaret Patterson, is now carving out his path in the NFL. Buffalo did win its 2021 debut last week against FCS Wagner 69-7, but get their first real test of the season on the road against Nebraska.
Last season, Buffalo leaned heavily on the running game with at a 65.8% clip. In their matchup against Wagner, three of the Bulls’ running backs saw double-digit touches, while four different running backs found their way into the end zone. Red shirt senior Kevin Marks led all ball carriers with 95 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries.
Since Frost joined Nebraska in 2018, the Cornhuskers and Bulls have been polar opposites of one another.
Since 2018, Nebraska has proven to be one of the worst bets in college football with the exception of the under coming in at 18-15-1. Buffalo on the other hand has been a highly profitable team to bet from all angles with the exception of the under. Although this shouldn’t be surprising for a team that averaged 69.0 points per game last season, and 43.4 points per game in 2019.
Hoping to find a silver lining for Nebraska, I looked to the NBC Sports Edge Finder once again, this time to see how they’ve fared as home favorites since 2018.
The results proved to be underwhelming, which you likely could have figured out on your own at this point.
The Cornhuskers are a disappointing 6-5 as home favorites since 2018, and have only covered on 5-of-13 occasions under Frost.
It will be interesting to see how this game unfolds given the public’s perception of Buffalo as 14-point underdogs. If Nebraska continues to struggle, we could have a double-digit underdog come out on top this weekend.
