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Favorites come in all shapes and sizes in college football. While double-digit spreads are a relative rarity at the pro level, those numbers can vary wildly on Saturdays as teams dip in and out of conference play or step up (or down) a level in competition.
And while it’s often easy to be tempted to take a handful of points and hope for the best with a significant underdog, sometimes the favorites are favored for a reason. Each week our College Football staff will share their picks for which “chalk” favorite of 10 points or more will both win and, more importantly, cover the spread.
Here are our staff’s picks for Week 2, with some big numbers spread all across the country:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports): Michigan (-51) over Hawaii
How could you back Hawaii after back-to-back home losses against Vanderbilt (63-10) and Western Kentucky (49-17)?
Michigan could score 60+ and chances are 10 points is too many for Hawaii to score on the road in Ann Arbor. This will be the first road game of the year for the Rainbow Warriors and new head coach Timmy Chang.
Michigan beat Hawaii 63-3 in 2016 and I expect a similar result, as that was also Hawaii’s first road game of that season. This time around they are far less talented than that 7-6 team that ultimately won a bowl game against Middle Tennessee State. Fade Hawaii at the Big House.
(YTD Record: 1-0 ATS)
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Boise State (-17) over New Mexico
New Mexico ranked dead last in points scored with 12.2 PPG last year, and imported former Kansas QB Miles Kendrick along with ASU wide receiver Geordon Porter to help close their roster’s talent gap. The Lobos had the good fortune of playing FCS foe Maine in their opener, whom they promptly throttled 41-0. However UNM now has to take on a Boise State team that came alive in the second half of their game against Oregon State last week once QB Teylen Green took over.
Though the Broncos were down too far to come back on the Beavers thanks to the first-half antics of QB Hank Bachmeier, Green ran 11 times for 102 yards and two touchdowns while bringing a dual-threat dynamic to the position. I think Boise will want to get Green as many live reps as possible in this game, which means he should lead a full complement of snaps, with the first-team offense staying in longer than usual to breed continuity. Boise might have the best defense in the Group of Five this season and will smother New Mexico’s still-coming-together offensive game plan. I’ll lay the 17 against the Lobos.
(YTD Record: 1-0 ATS)
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Oklahoma (-31.5) over Kent State
Last week was fun watching Clemson put on a defensive show and cover the 22-point spread against Georgia Tech. This week, I admit I was torn between Alabama (-11.5 first half), Ohio State (-43.5) or even SMU to cover the massive spread against Lamar. Those would’ve been great, but I ultimately landed on the Sooners.
Oklahoma looked like they didn’t miss a step in the season opener. Despite losing a ton of offensive production when Lincoln Riley left, they retained 82% of their defensive production. They shut down the high-flying UTEP Miners, 45-13, in a game where they held UTEP to just 5-of-15 on third down and allowed just one touchdown.
The defense will be solid under former Clemson DC Brent Venables. Holding UTEP to 13 point was impressive, but putting up 45 sold the Sooners for me in this game. They will play fast, with Jeff Lebby at OC and Dillon Gabriel under center. While they were forced to replace much talent on offense, the pieces that stayed and those they brought in seem to have made up for a lot. Look for Gabriel’s relationship with Marvin Mims to grow and Eric Gray to have his way running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.
In Week 2 of the new system, we should see them attack more on offense and gel more than they already did in the opening game. In Kent State’s last six games, they are 2-4 ATS whereas Oklahoma finished the season on an impressive 6-2-1 ATS streak. Oklahoma should be able to defend its home field in blowout fashion. Take the Sooners to cover -31.5.
(YTD Record: 1-0 ATS)
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): Mississippi State (-10.5) over Arizona
For a program that’s won just two games since 2020, it’s possible that Arizona is getting a little too much credit following their 38-20 win over San Diego State last week. Mad scientist Mike Leach and his Air Raid attack defeated Memphis by a score of 49-23 to open the season, as quarterback Will Rogers threw five touchdowns to just one interception on 49 pass attempts. Since 2019, the Wildcats are 10-18-1 ATS, and that doesn’t include any games against SEC opponents. Despite a much-upgraded team, I’m going to need to see more from Arizona before I take them at +10.5 points against an SEC foe - even if they are the home team.
(YTD Record: 1-0 ATS)