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Favorites come in all shapes and sizes in college football. While double-digit spreads are a relative rarity at the pro level, those numbers can vary wildly on Saturdays as teams dip in and out of conference play or step up (or down) a level in competition.
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And while it’s often easy to be tempted to take a handful of points and hope for the best with a significant underdog, sometimes the favorites are favored for a reason. Each week our staff will share their picks for which “chalk” favorite of 10 points or more will both win and cover the spread.
Here are the picks for Week 5, where expectations are high for Fresno State as they make a trip out west (all odds via PointsBet Sportsbook):
Will Gray: Alabama (-14.5) over Ole Miss
This feels like an opportunity to buy low on the Crimson Tide and fade what has become a popular underdog pick. A general consensus has emerged that this season could be one defined by parity, thanks in large part to a game between Alabama and Florida that unexpectedly went down to the wire. But that’s also one where Alabama flashed its ceiling, getting out to a 21-3 lead before Gator fans had a chance to find their seats. Ole Miss brings to town a prolific offense, fueled by Heisman front-runner Matt Corral, and have been known to have Alabama’s number in years past. But Nick Saban‘s record against former assistants remains unblemished, and the Crimson Tide offense likely isn’t slowing down anytime soon. Expect the Rebels to hang around for a while, but don’t be surprised if Alabama turns on the jets in the second half in front of the home crowd in what could become a statement game for quarterback Bryce Young. (YTD: 0-1 ATS)
Eric Froton: Marshall (-10.5) over Middle Tennessee State
Marshall’s offense looks revamped under new head coach Charles Huff, scrapping the plodding and heavily run-oriented approach of former HC Doc Holliday for an up-tempo, spread attack that creates running lanes for their bell cow, Rasheen Ali, while allowing QB Grant Wells to pick apart opposing defenses through the air. Though they lost a close 31-30 contest against Appalachian State last week, Marshall proved they can move the ball on anyone, as their 7.5 yards per play average ranks 11th nationally and their 50.5% success rate is the 18th best in FBS. Though their defense has been middle of the pack thus far, they suppress the passing game very well while allowing just 6.1 yards per attempt, good for 27th overall. Since Middle Tennessee wants to throw as much as possible, their pedestrian 4.85 yards per play average ranks just 104th. I see Marshall bouncing back from their close loss to Appalachian State with a resounding victory over the Blue Raiders. (YTD: 1-1 ATS)
John Supowitz: Georgia (-16.5) over Arkansas
The resurgence of Arkansas has been incredible to see. They arguably had their biggest win in a long time, beating Texas A&M 20-10 last week, but this will be their biggest test. Georgia continues to prove why they are one of the best in college football. They are the No. 1 defense in the country in terms of points allowed (5.25 PPG). The Razorbacks are a run-heavy offense, and that doesn’t bode well against the Bulldogs run defense which is No. 6 in yards allowed (66.0 YPG). Georgia has won ATS in three of their last five games as home favorites. Arkansas already has the matchup stacked against them, then add that this game is between the hedges. (YTD: 0-2 ATS)
Zachary Krueger: Fresno State (-10.5) over Hawaii
Heading into this game, Hawaii ranks 110th in yards allowed per game (423.8) and has allowed the 23rd-most points per game to opposing offenses (32.4). Offensively they’ve fared a bit better, scoring 28.0 points per game (45th), but are sitting on a 2-3 record with their wins coming over Portland State and New Mexico State. In addition to that, the Warriors are just 2-3 against the spread, which includes a Week 1 loss to UCLA in which Hawaii failed to cover as 17.5-point underdogs. Fresno State, on the other hand, is two weeks removed from a 40-37 road win at UCLA in which they were 11-point underdogs, and they’re 4-1 against the spread despite failing to cover as 30-point favorites last week in an upset loss to UNLV. Fresno State has been solid, both offensively and defensively this season. Perhaps it’s the three-hour time difference that Fresno State will be up against as it travels to Hawaii that has this line where it is, but it feels far too low heading into the weekend. (YTD: 1-1 ATS)
Tyler Forness: Fresno State (-10.5) over Hawaii
Jake Haener has been the talk of the college football world the past couple of weeks. His gutsy performance at the end of the UCLA game gave me flashbacks to Byron Leftwich being carried down the field by his offensive line. His 15:2 TD:INT ratio is also fantastic through five games, and there is some legitimate draft steam building for the senior. What’s even more impressive about the start for Fresno State is their record against the spread. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS so far this season, with their only loss coming last night against UNLV with a performance that can easily be described as a letdown coming off of their big win at the Rose Bowl. They head to Hawaii where they face a team that is only 2-3 ATS on the season. Look for Fresno to roll against a suspect Warriors team. (YTD: 0-2 ATS)
Patrick Yen: Penn State (-12.5) over Indiana
Indiana has looked shaky this year, while Penn State is rolling. I always thought last year’s Indiana run was a fluke, and Penn State will want revenge for the last-second loss from a year ago. Add to that Penn State being at home, and this should be a wrap. (YTD: 1-0 ATS)
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