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The season is almost here, and for many the preseason is an exciting time. It’s a world of endless possibilities, where anyone could be a champion if they could just put together one miracle run. Even if champion aspirations aren’t really on the horizon, there is always hope of outperforming one’s expectations. Plenty of teams will do so every single year.
Who would’ve thought a year ago that Wake Forest would go 11-3 and make it to the ACC Championship over Clemson? Or, on the flip side, that LSU would be so bad as to finish below .500 and at the bottom of the SEC West?
Every year team’s surprise us, both good and bad. Here are five likely candidates. (All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
North Carolina Tar Heels - O/U 7.5
Bet: Under 7.5 (-125)
Surprises aren’t always good, and this season is not likely to be a pleasant one for the Tar Heels. Sam Howell, who was one of the best QBs in school history, is gone, leaving some large shoes to fill. Not only that, but Howell and the offense was often the sole reason they won a few games, with shootout victories against Wake Forest, Miami and Virginia. It wasn’t just Howell they lost either, as leading rusher Ty Chandler and three offensive line starters also left - and the OL wasn’t good to begin with. Those are some crucial pieces gone, and while they have a high four-star QB Drake Maye in the wings, and one of the best receivers in the nation in Josh Downs, the offense being better than last year is unlikely.
On the other hand, the UNC defense was terrible in 2021, ranking 105th in the FBS in opponent points per game and 100th in PFF rating. They can’t get much worse than last year, and the talent should be there in theory. They have a number of former four- and five-star recruits reaching their college primes, and sometimes a new coordinator (who they have) is all you need to unlock that talent. If the Tar Heels want to reach or exceed the win total set by the betting markets, they need this defense to make a major step forward.
But the offense will most likely be worse with all they’ve lost, and while the defense has a chance to majorly improve they were horrible last year. Consider all of that, and then consider they won just six games in 2021. The 2022 win total for them was set at 7.5, so they need to win TWO more games than last year, while having a worse team. That doesn’t make much sense to me, and they should under-perform that win total by a surprising margin. Their schedule could also play into that. Florida A&M is a free win to start the season, but playing Appalachian State and Georgia State away from Chapel Hill are not easy in terms of non-conference games, and they finish out that non-conference slate with Notre Dame. They also get Miami (FL), Virginia and Wake Forest away, and while they do get NC State home, NC State should be vastly superior. I’m just not sure where eight wins are coming. The only games where they will likely be heavily favored are against Florida A&M, Duke, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. Every other game they’ll be big underdogs or it should be close, and they’ll need to win four of those. I don’t see it happening.
Baylor Bears: O/U 7.5
Bet: Over 7.5 (-145)
On the flip side, it’s surprising that the reigning Big 12 champions have the same O/U number as UNC. Baylor did lose quite a few players to the NFL Draft, but head coach Dave Aranda has done enough to be trusted in restocking the team and getting the most out of the guys there, even if they don’t have the biggest names.
It’s not like there is no continuity, either. The offensive line, one of the best in the nation last year (third in pass block rating and 15th in run blocking) returns four starters and should be excellent once again, and while QB Blake Shapen started fewer games than the departed Gerry Bohanon, Shapen looked better when he did play and won the starting gig fair and square. That should mean an upgrade at that position. So while the skill positions did take a major hit in losing the leading rusher and receiver of the team, the heart of the offense, the QB and line, should be just as good if not better.
Defense is Aranda’s calling card, and while they also lost a number of elite players like Jalen Pitre, there’s still a lot of talent there including All-Big 12 first-teamer Siaki Ika. This unit gave up just 18.3 points per game last year, good for 10th in the FBS, and were a top 25 defense in PFF rating. Replicating that won’t be easy, but as long as it’s not a major drop-off it’s fine.
As for their schedule, it’s not the easiest but there are quite a few “free” wins on the cards. Albany, Texas State and Kansas should be simple affairs, while TCU and Texas Tech are unlikely to pose much threat either. They do travel to Iowa State, but the Cyclones were just 5-4 in conference play last year and lost Brock Purdy and Breece Hall, who are not so easily replaced. Going to West Virginia is also never easy, but WVU has yet to break out under Neal Brown and while there is optimism heading into the fall it’s unlikely to be enough. That’s already seven games they should be favored in, and they also get Kansas State and Oklahoma State at home. As for the rest, sure, going to BYU, Oklahoma and Texas are tough, but Oklahoma is in a major state of transition, Texas is all hype and no substance right now, and BYU is certainly not unbeatable. Let’s not forget Baylor went 10-2 last year, including wins over Oklahoma and Texas. No game is out of reach for Baylor, and a fair number of them should be locked up wins. That’s a recipe for an over if I’ve ever seen one.
Iowa Hawkeyes - O/U 7.5
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105)
It’s a different story for the Big 10 runner-ups, who also have a 7.5 O/U win total. Iowa had a major rollercoaster of a season, starting 6-0 including a win over No. 4 Penn State before getting shellacked by Purdue and Wisconsin. They managed to clean up their play enough to limp into the Big Ten Championship, only to get absolutely embarrassed by Michigan when they got there. Going 10-2 in the regular season last year should set them up to go over 7.5, but the dismal offense will hold them back and result in a surprisingly lackluster season.
It’s impossible to ignore how anemic the offense looked at times in 2021, despite their record. Scoring seven points against Purdue and Wisconsin in back-to-back games killed any real hope of them competing, and a dismal three-point effort in the conference championship game was the nail in the coffin. The QB situation is no better, with Spencer Petras and Alex Padilla returning, and they lost 1000+ yard rusher Tyler Goodson and first-rounder Tyler Linderbaum at center. That means there’s a solid chance this offense will be worse than last year’s, the one that ranked 99th in points per game and 58th in PFF rating.
The defense will be great again, but there is a key area that is due for regression. The Hawkeyes forced an insane amount of turnovers last year, picking off nearly two passes a game. Doing that again will be hard (especially since they need to replace three starting secondary members), and turnovers are one of the most variable statistics from year to year, even for great defenses. Even a few less turnovers could be killers if the offense doesn’t take any steps forward (or takes a step back).
The schedule is not the toughest out there, but they drew Ohio State (on the road) and Michigan in cross-division play, which should be all but guaranteed losses, even with the Michigan game is at home. Getting Wisconsin and Nebraska at Kinnick are great, but that is also offset by getting Purdue and Minnesota away. In general, Big Ten games (outside the tippy-top) are a mess. Losing any three of those four games mentioned will take them under, and Rutgers and Illinois are usually good for an upset or two in their season, especially at home. Luckily, their out of conference schedule of South Dakota State, Iowa State and Nevada all at home should give them an excellent start at getting to eight wins, but everything after that just seems so questionable. Any game could just be thrown away if Petras or Padilla have a horror game (which they both have had) and if the defense can’t keep up with the rate they give it away this season could be a disaster.
Kansas State Wildcats - O/U 6.5
Bet: Over 6.5 (-155)
Kansas State exceeded this number last year, and some key transfers added to some crucial returning pieces could see them replicate that and possibly even compete for the Big 12 title.
Kansas State is primed for a breakout season, with new transfer Adrian Martinez giving them as good a QB as they’ve had in a long while. Skylar Thompson stayed in his lane and managed the game well, but Martinez is a game-breaker (although he does break the game in both good and bad ways). Still, that potential offensive improvement pairs nicely with Deuce Vaughn, easily one of the best backs in the nation and a favorite for the Doak Walker. He’s coming off a season where he scored 22 touchdowns and gained 1,872 total yards with a 6.0 YPC despite teams knowing he was going to be the workhorse of the Wildcat offense. If Martinez can take even a little pressure off of him, Vaughn could ascend to yet another level. The offensive line could be tricky, but Martinez is fine on his feet and if things turn into an up-tempo shootout that could suit the Wildcats just fine.
Defensively, they’ll be anchored by the line, who return three starters including EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah who racked up 13 sacks last year. Both starting CBs also return for a team that held opponents to just 21 points per game, good for 23rd in the FBS. Their overall defensive PFF rating isn’t quite so good at 73.4 (T-67th) but it’s solidly middle of the pack. If the offense flourishes with Martinez, then that might be all they need.
Finally, Kansas State’s schedule breaks out pretty favorably in their quest for seven wins. South Dakota and Tulane at home should be locks, and Missouri at home is also a favorable matchup. Throwing in Texas Tech and Kansas at home gets them to five games that should be comfortable, meaning they need just two more wins to surprise oddsmakers. The crucial games are at Iowa State, at TCU and West Virginia at home. Iowa State needs to replace essential pieces from last year, TCU is transitioning and went 5-7 last year and West Virginia still needs to prove they are for real. Speaking of, it’s not like Texas has proven anything yet, and they get both them and Oklahoma State at home, which are absolutely winnable games. Take two of those five and they are hitting the over. Going to Baylor and Oklahoma and escaping with a W will probably be too tall a task, but the other 10 games they have a great shot at winning, especially with the Wildcats likely favored in half of them.
Utah Utes - O/U 8.5
Bet: Over 8.5 (-150)
The Utes are another reigning champion that have a surprisingly low win total projection, especially when they are absolutely in the running to win the PAC-12, if not the favorites. Sure, USC is one of the hottest teams out there, but even a loss to the Trojans AND Oregon leave more than enough room to get Utah to nine wins.
The offense always starts with the QB, and the returning Cameron Rising is one of the best in the conference. Considering he was first-team PAC-12 last year, it might not be a stretch to call him the best until further notice. He’ll have help too, with lead RB Travion Thomas returning, as well as five of his top six pass catchers. The offensive line will need some reshuffling with two guys going pro, but it could be much worse, and overall the offense that blew out Oregon and fought Ohio State to the death last year should be mostly intact.
Defensively, they lose standout Devin Lloyd which is obviously not ideal, but they have enough to be pretty good, or at least good enough to let the offense carry through. They are a traditionally strong unit, so even though they are returning just five starters there shouldn’t be a massive panic, and they are getting two high ceiling guys back from injury.
Finally, the schedule breaks out fine for them, especially since they should just be straight-up superior to most of the teams they play. Opening at Florida is not ideal, but Southern Utah and a weaker San Diego State as the rest of the non-conference should be wins. At Arizona State, Oregon State, at Washington State, Arizona, Stanford and at Colorado should also not trouble Utah, no matter home or away. That’s already eight wins that should be more or less secure. That means they just need one win out of their remaining four, and they are far from unwinnable. Going to Florida, UCLA and Oregon are really tough, but again they just need one, and they get an unproven USC at home. Nothing is ever guaranteed in conference play, but in the last two full years of football Utah has gone 8-1 in conference, which is remarkable consistency. If they do that again, going over 8.5 should be a breeze.
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