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One of the best articles offered to us is Thor Nystrom’s CFB Against The Spread, where we get not only a look at Thor’s thoughts on some games for the upcoming weekend, but also his “Adjusted Thor Line” which Thor uses to determine line value throughout the week.
As we get into the Week 3 slate of games, I decided to take a look at the spreads we are currently seeing in some Group of Five conference matchups, in hopes of spotting some teams who I think have a chance to cover the spread this weekend. With the assistance of the already provided Adjusted Thor Lines, let’s take a look at two G5 games on the weekend, and why we like them (all odds via PointsBet Sportsbook).
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Air Force (-9) vs. Utah State
Through the first two weeks of the season the Air Force Falcons are 2-0 with wins coming over FCS Lafayette by a score of 35-14 and on the road against Navy 23-3. Led by a high volume rushing attack, the Falcons have attempted just 15 passes on the season, totaling 99 yards and no touchdowns.
Their rushing attack, while serviceable, has been far from efficient. Air Force’s top rushers are running back Brad Roberts (54/208/2) and quarterback Haaziq Daniels (33/123/4). Neither player is averaging over four yards per rush, with their best ball carrier being wide receiver Micah Davis, who has taken eight carries for 114 yards and two scores. The Falcons are averaging 29 points per game on the season, but are 1-1 against the spread. Both games they have played in this year have gone under their projected totals of 49.5 and 39.5 - neither of which are high totals to begin with.
On the other side of the ball is Utah State, who kicked off their season with their first Power Five win since 1971 in Week 1 over Washington State.
Relative to the Falcons, Utah State runs a much more balanced attack. They have thrown on 53.5% of their plays, and quarterback Logan Bonner has completed 38-of-57 passes for 533 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions.
Running back Calvin Tyler has led the ground game with two solid starts to open the season. Tyler took 14 carries for 84 yards and a score against Washington State and rushed for another 72 yards and a touchdown last week against North Dakota. Wide receiver Deven Thompkins is averaging 11 targets a game and has posted a receiving line of 16/266/2, including 117 yards after the catch.
The Aggies are 2-0 against the spread this season, and rank 38th in points per game (37.0).
According to the ATL, the nine point spread for this matchup is way off. The ATL has set the spread at Air Force (-.1), suggesting that at the least, Utah State should be an easy cover in this matchup.
Pick: Utah State (+9)
Marshall (-9.5) vs. East Carolina
The Marshall Thundering Herd are 2-0 on the season, having outscored their opponents 93-17 in their first two games. They covered as three point favorites on the road against Navy in Week 1, and just missed covering as 42.5 point favorites against North Carolina Central in Week 2.
Quarterback Grant Wells has gotten off to a strong start, completing 54-of-78 passes for 662 yards and three touchdowns. Wells also has three interceptions to his name, including two picks coming against Navy, but he bounced back against North Carolina Central tossing three touchdowns to one interception. He’s also displayed limited mobility, carrying the ball nine times for 32 yards and a touchdown. Wells posted a rushing line of 32/253/2 in 2020.
Running back Rasheen Ali has led the way on the ground for Marshall, rushing 22 times for 102 yards and four touchdowns. And wide receivers Talik Keaton and Corey Gammage each have 173 yards receiving - Keaton has scored twice on the season.
Marshall’s offense as a whole has drawn a Pro Football Focus grade of 90.2 through its first two contests, good for 26th overall in the nation. Their defense currently ranks as the eighth highest graded defense at 87.5, although the competition they’ve faced has been underwhelming at best.
With that being said, the level of competition that Marshall will get on Saturday against East Carolina could be just as unimpressive as their previous two games.
The ECU Pirates are 0-2 on the season, with a road loss to Appalachian State and a 20-17 home loss to South Carolina. They rank 113th in the nation in points per game (18.0) and are tied for 23rd in offensive yards per game (322.0). The fact that the Pirates are only 9.5-point underdogs seems off for an 0-2 team that hasn’t covered in either of its games, and is playing on the road against a team that has come out as strong as Marshall has.
Pirates’ quarterback Holton Ahlers has completed only 51.6% of his passes for 372 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Ahlers has also been sacked four times on the season, with graduate transfer left tackle Justin Chase being responsible for three of those sacks.
I liked Marshall’s chances to cover at -9.5 heading into this one. After seeing the ATL set to -13.2, I now love Marshall’s chances to cover.
Pick: Marshall -9.5
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