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Last week we took a look at two Group of 5 games that presented interesting betting opportunities on the Week 3 college football slate.
After narrowly missing a 2-0 weekend thanks to Marshall (-9.5) being outscored 21-0 in the fourth quarter of a game they lost 42-38 to East Carolina, we are back for more G5 action in Week 4.
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Here some picks that stand out on this weekend’s G5 slate of games.
Air Force (-4) vs. Florida Atlantic
In last weeks Air Force (-9.5) vs. Utah State game, we saw 97 combined rushing attempts from the two teams in a shootout that was won by Utah State 49-45.
While Air Force was ultimately overwhelmed by Utah State’s passing attack, which threw for 458 yards and five touchdowns, we also saw Air Force dominate on the ground in a game that was competitive throughout.
This has been par for the course for Air Force, who is averaging just nine pass attempts per game compared to 63 rush attempts per game. The Falcons toted the rock 62 times against the Aggies on their way to 435 yards and five touchdowns, and now get a home matchup against Florida Atlantic (2-1) in Week 4.
Looking to rebound from last week’s upset loss, Air Force just may have what it takes to overwhelm FAU in this week’s matchup.
Per Pro Football Focus, FAU has graded as one of the worst run defenses in the nation at 63.0 (9\5th) and grades out even worse in tackling at 45.5 (121st). Leading the way for FAU in the missed tackle department is linebacker Antarrius Moultrie, who is tied for the fifth most missed tackles on the season with eight.
FAU’s pass coverage has been strong on the season, but when playing against Air Force, that doesn’t seem to matter quite as much.
If the Owls are to cover in this one, it will need to be on the arm of N’Kosi Perry. Perry is 65-for-105 passing on the season for 871 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions. Perry’s 871 passing yards rank at 17th most in the nation while is average depth of target on passes is 11.7. With that being said, the Owls could struggle to get things going through the air against Air Force’s 13th ranked pass rush (83.2). Through three games, defenders have sacked FAU quarterbacks nine times, and pressured them on 25% of their drop backs
Air Force opened as 5.5 point favorites in this game the day after it lost to Utah State, but that line has dropped over the last few days. Despite being 1-2 against the spread, Air Force’s greatest strengths could expose FAU’s greatest weaknesses and could leave the Owls in for a long day of getting hammered by the run.
I am courageously taking Air Force to cover in this one, despite Thor Nystrom’s Adjust Thor Line (ATL) suggesting that FAU should be 7.2 point favorites.
Pick: Air Force (-4)
Georgia Southern (+14.5) vs. University Louisiana-Lafayette
Through the first three games of this season, Georgia Southern is 1-2, and is 0-3 against the Spread. As 27.5 point home favorites against Gardner-Webb in Week 1, Georgia Southern avoided a near upset by winning 30-25.
In Week 2 they were seven point road dogs to Florida Atlantic and lost 38-6. And in Week three, as 23 point road dogs to Arkansas, they lost 45-10.
Simply put, Georgia Southern has not been good, and oddsmakers have yet to set a spread for them that has even come within single-digits of hitting.
Offensively, Georgia Southern ranks 111th in the nation in yards per game (330) and is 124th in points per game (15.3). The team as a whole is ranked 125th on Pro Football Focus, with a a grade of 51.8, and have managed just one touchdown pass on 73 pass attempts.
Redshirt junior starting quarterback Justin Tomlin made his 2021 debut from suspension in the team’s 45-10 Week 3 loss to Arkansas, and completed 10-of-24 passes for 56 yards and no touchdowns. While a debut against Arkansas’ 18th ranked defense is no easy task, there’s no reason to believe that Georgia Southern will be any better under Tomlin, who has attempted 76 carer passes and has only 379 passing yards and three interceptions to show for it. He offers a bit more on the ground, with a career rushing line of 69/489/4, but Georgia Southern has struggled mightily on the season regardless.
Georgia Southern has leaned heavily on its ground game, led by running back Logan Wright, who has rushed for 39/244/2. Backup running back Amare Jones has also played a significant role on offense for the Eagles, rushing 28 times for 119 yards, while also hauling in five passes for 36 yards.
For Louisiana, the 2-1 Ragin’ Cajuns are currently 2-1 on the season, and only 1-2 against the spread. They suffered a difficult Week 1 road loss to to Texas as eight point under dogs, and barely escaped Week 2 with a 27-24 win over Nicholls State in a game Louisiana was favored in by 26 points. Their lone cover came last week against Ohio in a 49-14 victory. The Ragin’ Cajuns were favored by 19 points in that game.
Led by quarerback Levi Lewis, Louisiana ranks 58th in the nation in points scored (31.3), and 86th in points allowed (25.3). Lewis is completed 68-of-103 passes for 795 yards and four touchdowns, and has rushed nine times for 105 yards and one touchdown. While no wide receiver has over 100 yards receiving on the season, Louisiana has spread the ball around to 17 different pass-catchers on the year, and have three running backs who have rushed for over 120 yards this season.
Georgia Southern’s strength lies heavily in its ground game, while Louisiana has deployed a more balanced attack, having thrown on 49.8% of its plays so far.
Given Louisiana’s ability to move the ball in multiple ways, and Georgia Southern’s inability to cover this season, I think the dry spell for the Eagles covering continues for another week.
Pick: University Louisiana-Lafayette (-14.5)
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