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Before getting too deep into things here, I would like to thank the undefeated (ATS) Bowling Green Falcons for their +16.5-point cover in Week 5 against Kent State. Bowling Green is now 5-0 ATS, as it takes its perfect record into Week 6 as 13.5-point home favorites against Akron. [[ad:athena]]
Army (-9) let us down last week against Ball State, as it not only failed to cover but lost outright to the Cardinals. This however could have been due to Army quarterback Christian Anderson missing the game, after he appeared to be on track to start earlier in the week.
As we put our heads down for another week of games, here are two more Group of 5 games I like in Week 6.
BYU (-6) vs. Boise State
At the risk of being burnt by a starting quarterback missing a game I picked in back-to-back weeks, I’m going to go ahead and say that I like BYU (-6) against Boise State this week.
BYU quarterback Jaren Hall has missed the last two games (undisclosed) but offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick did reveal on Wednesday that Hall is closer to returning than backup quarterback Baylor Romney (head).
The 5-0 Cougars are currently 3-2 against the spread, including last week’s 34-20 victory over Utah State, which was started by Romney, and closed out by third stringer Jacob Conover. The real story of that game, however, was running back Tyler Allgeier.
Allgeier rushed 22 times for 218 yards and three touchdowns, while also catching three passes for 22 yards. It was unquestionably Allgeier’s best game of the season, but over the last 10 games, the redshirt sophomore running back has averaged 17.7 carries for 119.7 yards and 1.4 touchdowns.
If BYU is to beat Boise State this weekend, Allgeier’s rushing, along with Jaren Hall‘s, just might be the key to victory.
The Broncos (2-3) are one of the worst run stopping teams in the nation through the first five weeks. In addition to allowing 194.0 rushing yards per game, Pro Football Focus grades Boise State’s rush defense as 85th in the nation (65.2) and its tackling as 108th in the nation (54.0). BYU, on the other hand, is averaging 178.6 rushing yards per game.
Offensively for Boise State, the Broncos love to air the ball out. They’re tied for 21st in the nation with 37.2 pass attempts per game, but also have one of worst pass blocking units in the game.
Quarterback Hank Bachmeier has taken 13 sacks in the team’s first five games, as Pro Football Focus has Boise’s pass blocking graded at 46.4 (104th).
The Broncos’ lone road win on the season came against Utah State in Week 5. Despite being on the road, the Broncos were nine point favorites and walked away with an outright win 27-3.
BYU’s impressive start to the season is hard to ignore at this point. Especially when you consider that two of its wins came without its starting quarterback under center.
Between the Cougars’ resilience, a return of Jaren Hall, and a dominant running game, BYU looks like a team that has what it takes to cover as six-point favorites.
Pick: BYU (-6)
Air Force (-5) vs. Wyoming
It’s not a G5 article if a military school isn’t mentioned. Those are the rules.
Against the spread, the Falcons are 3-2, and coming off back-to-back covers against Florida Atlantic and New Mexico where they were favored by 3.5 and 11.5 points, respectively. Wyoming is 1-2 against the spread, with its lone cover coming against a loathsome Ball State in a 45-12 victory.
Wyoming has a lot going for it heading into this one.
The Cowboys rank 34th in the nation in both points per game (34.5) and yards per game (368.0). And on defense they’re allowing just 23.3 points per game and 335.4 yards. What Wyoming doesn’t have, however, is a strong schedule.
Through the first four weeks of the season, Wyoming has faced Montana State, Northern Illinois, Ball State and Connecticut. Those teams are a combined 9-12 on the season, but 5-11 if you remove FCS Montana State from the equation.
Air Force, on the other hand, has wins over Florida Atlantic and New Mexico across the last two weeks, and narrowly missed a Week 3 win over Utah State in a shootout that ended 49-45.
When it comes to the Falcons, their offense is all about the ground game, led by quarterback Haaziq Daniels and fullback Brad Roberts. Air Force is first in the nation in both rush attempts per game (67.0) and rushing yards per game (367.4) and have posted 34.4 points per game in the process. Defensively they have also boasted consistent tackling and a strong pass rush.
Per Pro Football Focus, Air Force has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 108 snaps (21.6/gm) and is has 19 sacks on the season (3.8). Safety Corvan Taylor has also displayed a true nose for the football, with three interceptions on the young season. Taylor has five picks dating back to 2020.
Wyoming does boast an elite pass coverage rating on PFF.com of 90.8, but that may not mean much against the run-happy Falcons. Rather, Wyoming’s rushing defense, which is allowing 148.8 rushing yards per game, could be its undoing.
Like Wyoming, Air Force has also not faced the toughest of schedules this season. But Wyoming has not faced any team like Air Force.
As a believer in the Falcons’ ground game and solid defensive front, I like Air Force to cover in this one and end Wyoming’s undefeated streak.
Pick: Air Force (-5)
2021 G5 Record: 3-3
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