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My love for the Air Force Falcons continues to grow, as they pushed my ATS record in their games to 4-0 after covering as five-point favorites against Wyoming last Saturday. The Falcons are now 4-2 ATS on the season, and while I won’t be going in depth on them this week, let’s just say I like them at their current underdog spread against Boise State this weekend at +3.5. [[ad:athena]]
Ironically, it was Boise State who kept me from going 2-0 last weekend, as they crushed BYU 26-17 despite entering the game as six-point road dogs. But I know the Falcons will avenge me.
Now, as I put my Air Force love aside for a moment, let’s get into some other Group of 5 games and find out where I’m leaning this weekend.
UTSA (-17) vs. Rice - O/U 53
With the sincerest of apologies to the Rice Owls, it needs to be stated that they are not a good team. Their 2-3 record features wins over FCS Texas Southern and 1-5 Southern Miss. The Owls are 1-5 ATS on the season, and feature one of the worst offenses in the nation.
They rank 117th in points per game (19.2) and are 101st in yards per game (349.8). Defensively it doesn’t get much better for the Owls, who have allowed the sixth most points per game (38.6) and the 22nd most yards per game (445.0). They are also allowing 195.4 rushing yards per game, which could bode well for UTSA and running back Sincere McCormick.
McCormick has rushed 154 times for 661 yards and six touchdowns on the season, forcing 28 missed tackles on his rush attempts according to Pro Football Focus. He has also played a decent role in the passing game, hauling in all 10 of his targets for 84 yards. His 25.8 rush attempts per game leads the nation, while his 110.2 rushing yards per game is 14th.
UTSA has outscored its opponents 225-134 on the season, and are 5-1 ATS. Their only slip up came in Week 5 against UNLV, who is 3-1 ATS despite their 0-5 record overall.
Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris has thrown for 1,475 yards on the season, with 12 touchdowns to three interceptions, and has also contributed on the ground to the tune of 37/191/1. UTSA has been unafraid to throw the ball around, as they are averaging 34.7 pass attempts per game, and 287.0 passing yards per game.
Wide receiver De’Corian Clark ranks third on the team with 396 receiving yards, while receivers Zakhari Franklin and Joshua Cephus are neck-and-neck with 447 and 457 receiving yards, respectively.
UTSA has allowed more passing yards per game on the season (276.3) than Rice, but as previously mentioned, the Owls don’t bring much to the table on either side of the ball. UTSA’s pass rush has an 85.7 grade on PFF.com, which ranks as the 11th best on the season.
Another fun UTSA fact before we go. They are one of only 16 teams in the nation that are forcing 2.0+ turnovers per game.
Given how big of a mismatch this game appears on paper, UTSA being only 17-point favorites feels like a slight. Especially at home.
I’ll give the points and take the Roadrunners in this one.
Pick: UTSA (-17)
UTEP (+6.5) vs. Louisiana Tech - O/U 56
It’s not everyday you see a 5-1 team entering a home matchup as 6.5-point underdogs. Especially against a 2-3 team. But that’s exactly what the UTEP Miners are facing this weekend against Louisiana Tech.
As a team, the Miners are one of the highest graded teams in the nation per Pro Football Focus, with a grade of 88.7 (31st overall). Louisiana Tech ranks 84th overall with a PFF grade of 76.5.
UTEP has already massively exceeded expectations this season. After entering the season with a projected win total of O/U 3.0, the Miners have been anchored by a defense that ranks 17th in the nation in yards allowed per game (301.3) and is 42nd in points allowed per game (22.0). Louisiana Tech on the other hand has struggled defensively, allowing 33.4 points per game (21st) and 471.8 yards per game (10th).
Louisiana Tech quarterback Austin Kendall will be a focal point in this game, as the former Oklahoma Sooner and West Virginia quarterback enters Saturday’s game averaging 294.5 passing yards per game and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game.
Kendall also possesses some rushing ability. He’s rushed just 13 times on the season but has 203 yards and three scores to show for it.
But for all the good that can come with Kendall, he’s also been incredibly turnover-prone.
The senior quarterback has thrown five interceptions on the season and lost three fumbles and is averaging two turnovers per game. UTEPs defense, has been one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers, averaging 1.7 per game on the year.
Per Pro Football Focus, UTEP is also averaging 15.8 quarterback pressures per game and 2.7 sacks per game, which could prove to be problematic for a Louisiana Tech pass blocking unit rates as one of the worst in the nation with a grade of 28.8 (123rd).
Offensively, UTEP has not been impressive, averaging just 25.8 points per game (87th). But Louisiana Tech’s defense has been exceptionally rough, which could be something UTEP is able to exploit with a home field advantage. The Bulldogs’ opponents have converted 55.9% of downs on third and medium (107th) and 28.1% of downs on third and long (94th).
UTEP may not wind up winners of this game, although I do like their chances. At the very least, I’ll pick them to cover as home dogs. The Miners are 4-2 ATS this season.
Pick: UTEP (+6.5)
2021 G5 Record: 4-4
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