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The last thing I expected to come of the Week 7 college football season was my home town throwing a parade for me and building a statue in my likeness outside of town hall.
But that is exactly what happened after Week 7 featured my first 2-0 ATS of the season in my G5 article. The fact that my bonus pick at the start of my article also covered to bump me to 3-0 on the weekend was enough for the mayor to grant me a key to the city. [[ad:athena]]
It’s been an exciting week. Both UTSA (-17) and UTEP (+6.5) covered in dominating fashion, as UTSA shutout Rice 45-0 and UTEP outright beat Louisiana Tech 19-3 despite the Miners being 6.5-point home dogs.
In hopes of turning this recent success into a full on heater, here are some picks I am eyeing for this weekend’s G5 games.
Houston (-13.5) vs. East Carolina University - O/U 57.5
The Houston Cougars and quarterback Clayton Tune have been putting up points at will on opposing defenses. As a team, Houston is posting 37.2 points per game (17th in the nation), and now get a chance to let its offense go to work against a defense that is allowing the 12th most points per game (28.0) in East Carolina.
Tune is averaging 33.6 pass attempts per game, and has been on a tear over the past two weeks, tossing five touchdowns to one interception while completing 66.7% of his passes for 529 yards.
Tune looked erratic with the football to start the season, throwing four interceptions in Week 1 against Texas Tech, but has thrown only two picks over his last five games.
Wide receiver Nathaniel Dell has been Tune’s favorite target this season, as he’s hauled in 36-of-51 passes for 478 yards and three touchdowns. No other pass catcher for Houston has even surpassed 200 yards on the season. And running back Alton McCaskill has posted a rushing line of 86/403/8, averaging 89.5 rushing yards and one touchdown per game over the last four weeks.
On the season, the Cougars have outscored opponents 223-97. They are 4-2 ATS, and have covered by 11.5 points or more on three occasions.
East Carolina is 3-3 on the season and 3-3 against the spread, and has a slightly above average offense (29.5 points per game) to go with an underwhelming defense.
One of the biggest mismatches between these two teams is in pass blocking and pass rushing per Pro Football Focus.
The Pirates pass blocking grade of 41.8 ranks as the 18th-worst in the nation, compared to Houston’s pass rush grade of 90.4 which ranks as second-best.
East Carolina will likely need to pass in this one to have much of a chance in this one, and Houston’s defense as a whole has been stout. PFF gives them an overall grade of 89.4, which ranks 14th in the nation.
Houston has been beating up on teams all season, while ECU struggles to hold its own against teams of note.
I’ll give the points in this game, and trust that Tune and the Cougars get it done and cover against an underwhelming Pirates team.
Pick: Houston (-13.5)
Air Force (-3) vs. San Diego State - O/U
I really couldn’t imagine betting against the Falcons in this one. I say this partly in jest, in the spirit of my week-long Twitter “feud” with Thor Nystrom, whose ATL views this game as more of a pick ‘em than a game in which the Falcons should be three-point favorites. But nevertheless, I’m taking my 4-0 streak on Falcons games into this one in hopes of pushing my streak to 5-0.
Air Force gets the benefit of being the home team in this one, against an Aztecs defense that is ninth in the nation in points allowed per game (16.0) and seventh in yards allowed per game (282.8). The Falcons rank just behind San Diego State defensively, as they are allowing 16.3 points per game and 288.9 yards per game, as both teams rely on strong defense and a heavy dose of running to grind their opponents down for 60 minutes.
For the Aztecs, running back Greg Bell leads the team with 113 carries for 561 yards and five touchdowns. Bell got off to a hot start to open the season, rushing for 405 yards four touchdowns on 71 carries in the Aztecs’ first three games, but has managed just 155 yards and 1 touchdown over his last three games.
Bell also has six breakaway rushes on the season (runs of 15+ yards) according to Pro Football Focus, but five of those six runs came in his first three games against New Mexico State, Arizona and Utah. Of that trio, Utah is the best run defense, allowing 132.5 rushing yards per game, but New Mexico State and Arizona rank 91st and 113th in rushing yards allowed per game respectively. Bell has forced 14 missed tackles on the season, but the Falcons could also look to capitalize on his ball security, as he has fumbled the ball away three times in five games.
At quarterback, San Diego State is starting senior Lucas Johnson, who led the Aztecs to an overtime win over San Jose State last week. Johnson completed 2-of-3 passes for 38 yards and two touchdowns after taking over for Jordon Brookshire in a game that was tied at 6-6 after regulation. On the year, Johnson has completed 29-of-49 passes (59.2%) for four touchdowns and one interception.
If they Falcons are to cover in this one, they will need to do so behind the three-headed rushing attack of quarterback Haaziq Daniels, running back Brad Roberts and wide receiver Micah Davis.
Daniels, who has attempted only 48 passes on the season is not the strongest of passers, as you might imagine on a team as run heavy as Air Force. He has completed just 23 passes for 553 yards on the season, with two touchdowns and one interception, but is second in the nation in average depth of target (min. 50 drop backs) at 14.4. The Falcons’ passing attack thrives off its run heavy approach thanks in part to a high-effective play action scheme when they do opt to air it out, but make no mistake that Air Force wins games on the ground.
Daniels is averaging 15.3 carries per game to go with 74.3 rushing yards per game, while Brad Roberts, is averaging 116.9 rushing yards per game and 1.1 touchdowns per game while forcing 22 missed tackles and breaking off 11 breakaway runs.
Roberts has a slightly higher breakaway rush rate on the season (6%) when compared to Bell (5%), but the two are nearly identical in missed tackle rate at 12.5% to 12.4%, respectively.
Aside from these team’s combined record of 12-1, they are also neck and neck ATS. Air For is 5-2 ATS on the season, while San Diego State is 4-2.
Both teams are incredibly stout defensively, but this matchup to me comes down to offensive success rate, and Air Force’s ability to successfully include multiple offensive pieces with regularity. As previously mentioned, wide receiver Micah Davis is another critical part of this Falcons attack.
Despite his wide receiver tag, Davis has a rushing line of 42/345/4 on the season, which includes games of 93 and 101 rushing yards.
In terms of efficiency, Air Force ranks 32nd in the nation in success rate (46.3%) and 17th in three-and-out percent (20.8%). Defensively, they are also the seventh best team in the nation at forcing three-and-outs at 45.9%. While the Aztecs rank slightly better at forcing three-and-outs at fourth overall (46.6%), offensively the are near the bottom of the nation in success rate (37.2%) and three-and-out percent (34.9%).
This game could be a close, low-scoring affair throughout. And while I respect what both teams are capable of defensively, taking the Falcons to cover on their home turf against a recently slowed offense in the midst of a quarterback change is a hill I’m happy to die on.
Pick: Air Force (-3)
2021 G5 Record: 7-4
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