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Conference championship week is officially upon us. The regular season grind has paid off for a handful of teams who now hope to add some additional hardware to their school’s trophy case before learning of their bowl game fate.
Last week’s G5 article ended with an even 1-1 split, as Army (-20) came out and smashed UMass in a 44-7 win, shutting out the Minutemen in the final three quarters while totaling 329 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Quarterback Tyhier Tyler‘s 11-101-3 performance featured a 27-yard rushing touchdown that gave Army a 28-7 lead at the half, as the Knights never looked back on their way to their fifth win of the season.
Looking at ECU (-10) who took on Temple last week, the Pirates were fortunate enough to walk away with a 49-46 win, but were unable to gain much separation from the Owls despite the 300-yard, four-touchdown effort from running back Keaton Mitchell.
Mitchell turned in two long scores on the day, with his biggest coming on a 73-yard reception in the second quarter, as Mitchell out-ran nearly all of Temple’s defense on his way to the end zone.
🏴☠️✌️ What a 1st half for Keaton Mitchell.
— Pirate Radio ☠️ (@PR927FM) November 26, 2022
12 carries, 133 yds, 1 TD
1 catch, 73 yds, 1 TD
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With a limited slate to choose from this weekend, here are two G5 conference championship games I’m eying up this weekend as near an exciting bowl game season.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
Coastal Carolina is 1-1 in its two games without Grayson McCall and 0-2 ATS. The absence of the Sun Belt Player of the Year has made life difficult for the Chanticleers as of late -- especially in last week’s 47-7 loss to James Madison. Quarterback Jarrett Guest managed just 99 passing yards and one touchdown while also throwing a pick and losing a fumble. In the previous week, Guest threw for 163-0-2 in a narrow win over Southern Mississippi, as an offense that is averaging 409.3 yards per game on the season has managed just 273.0 yards per game during those two weeks.
There’s a chance that McCall could return for this week’s Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, although head coach Jamey Chadwell is on record saying:
It’s possible that this 8.5-point spread (which opened as Troy -7), could be a slight hedge on the possibility that McCall returns, with the books not wanting to give Troy too big a number at this point.
The 10-2 Trojans have been a pleasant surprise this season after going 5-7 in the previous year. Not only are the Trojans 10-2, but their 9-3 record ATS ranks among the best in the nation. Over their last five games, the Trojans are 4-1 ATS and have won their last five games by an average of 11.6 points per game.
Quarterback Gunnar Watson (2387-10-10) hasn’t exactly set the world on fire but the recent emergence of running back Kimani Vidal has been more than enough to carry the Trojans to victory.
Over the last two weeks, Vidal has totaled 62 carries for 450 yards and six touchdowns, averaging an impressive 7.3 YPC while averaging a solid 3.90 YCO/ATT. His 26 missed tackles forced over that two-game span ranks second-most in the nation behind Texas’ Bijan Robinson while his eight 15+ yard carries are tops in the nation.
Troy gets the benefit of hosting this game, which should only benefit their stout defense. Troy is allowing the eighth-fewest yards per game on the season (316.4) and the eighth-fewest points per game (16.8). Coastal, on the other hand, is allowing 28.7 points per game and 411.5 yards per game and are fresh off allowing 215 rushing yards to James Madison.
This line will see some serious movement if we catch word of McCall suiting up. But assuming he doesn’t play, I expect Guest (or whoever quarterbacks the Chanticleers in this one) to struggle on the road against a stout Troy defense.
Pick: Troy -8.5
The 10-2 Green Wave have the opportunity to fight for a conference championship on home turf. Revenge will undoubtedly be on the minds of Tulane, who lost to UCF at home earlier this season, falling 38-31 in a game they entered as one-point favorites.
UCF now heads back to Tulane in search of a second-straight win, but do so with a banged-up John Rhys Plumlee (hamstring). Despite rumors that he was at risk to miss Saturday’s game, Plumlee has reportedly practiced every day leading up to the game and is expected to start.
#UCF's Gus Malzahn said this about John Rhys Plumlee on @969thegame tonight: "He's practiced every day and he's practiced well every day. He's ready to go. I can't tell you he's going to be 100% but this time of year, I'm not sure who is 100%. But he's going to be ready to go."
— Jason Beede (@therealBeede) December 2, 2022
As a passer, Plumlee has been hit or miss. He’s thrown for 2,195 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the season, but has ripped off 848 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. A staple in UCF’s run game, Plumlee has seen 76.8% of his rush attempts come on designed runs per PFF and has five games with 100+ rushing yards on the season. In the team’s Week 11 win over Tulane, Plumlee totaled 18-169-2 on the ground while throwing for another 132-1 on 30 pass attempts.
How much Plumlee’s hamstring injury will limit him in Saturday’s game will be worth monitoring, but the Wave could have their hands full if he feels well enough to handle his typical workload. Tulane’s defense has been solid this season, allowing 19.8 points per game and the 18th-fewest yards per game, with UCF’s defense (21.3 PPG, 360.2 YPG) ranking closely behind.
That didn’t matter much the last two times these two teams played, as the two sides combined for 79 points with Michael Pratt throwing for 236 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. Like Plumlee, Pratt also has plenty of rushing upside, rushing for 108-347-9 on the year with four performances of 50+ yards. He’s thrown for 2,376-21-4 on the season, but ranks 25th among qualified quarterbacks in YPA (8.2) and has been solid on deep passes, completing 17-of-41 deep attempts for 526 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions.
Both teams have been solid ATS this season, but, interestingly, Tulane is laying four points in a game they lost by seven less than a month ago. The injury to Plumlee may be somewhat influencing this number, but I’ll buy (perhaps foolishly) the notion that he’ll be good to go on Saturday.
Even if the Knights don’t pull out another upset win, I think they’re more than capable of keeping this one within reach.
Pick: UCF +4
2022 G5 Record: 8-19-1
Overall G5 Record: 22-28-2
