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Last week featured a difficult decision, as I opted to bet against my Air Force Falcons as -2.5 favorites at home against Boise State. Air Force, who is now 2-3 in conference play, continued their Mountain West struggles last week, falling 19-17 to Boise State.
The recent play of Boise State and quarterback Taylen Green have made the Broncos a fun team to bet on in recent weeks as the Broncos are now entering the discussion of competing for a conference championship.
My second G5 pick, UTSA (-10) came away with a 31-27 win over North Texas, but the Roadrunners needed 21 fourth-quarter points to steal the win after trailing 13-10 through three quarters.
Group of five favorites continue to struggle against the spread, but the law of regression would suggest we’re eventually in for a turning of the tide. With an exciting Week 9 on the horizon, here’s a look at two home favorites I’m eying up this weekend.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
This matchup features two teams trending in the exact opposite direction of one another.
On one hand, you have a 3-4 Middle Tennessee team that’s riding a three-game losing streak (0-3 ATS) since pulling off an upset win over Miami in Week 4. And on the other hand, you have a 4-4 UTEP team (3-5 ATS) that has won three of its last four games while also going 3-1 ATS over that span.
For the Miners, quarterback Gavin Hardison (1767-9-7) has struggled at times, completing just 52.1% of his passes, but has been a little better on the road. Six of Hardison’s seven interceptions have come on the road and came in bulk as he has two three-interception games on his resume.
The Miners have also enjoyed success on the ground during their recent hot streak, averaging 180.3 rushing yards per game with running back Deion Hankins leading the way. Over those four games, Hankins has rushed 58 times for 336 scoreless yards but has also forced 15 missed tackles on those touches while averaging 3.31 YCO/ATT. UTEP runs a balanced offense, averaging a near 50/50 split of run and pass plays, and boasts a line that’s drawn the sixth-best run block grade per PFF (78.7). UTEP will have a chance, at home, to take advantage of a Middle Tennessee defense that’s allowed 35+ points in each of their last three games, with two of those games ending in home losses.
Blue Raiders quarterback Chase Cunningham (1786-10-5) has found himself under fire for most of the season, ranking 10th in the nation in pressures (102) tying for 41st in sacks (15). He’s also top-15 in turnover-worthy plays per PFF (13) and has been one of the most conservative passers in the league with a 6.3 aDOT -- good for 142nd in the nation. Not great when you consider we only have 131 FBS programs.
Wide receiver Jaylin Lane, leads the team with a line of 36-506-2 but has topped 59 receiving yards just twice in six games. Lane erupted for 4-130-0 vs. Miami, and 10-179-0 in the following week against UTSA, but has been limited in recent weeks.
UTEP is laying just 2.5 points as home favorites but has drawn the majority of the tickets and money this weekend. The line has moved a full point since UTEP opened as 1.5-point favorites, but there could still be some value on this line that seems to be drawing a lot of attention from both the public and the sharps.
Pick: UTEP -2.5
Boise State is 3-3-1 ATS this season, covering each of their last three games with quarterback Taylen Green as the starter. With Green as the starter, the Broncos are also 3-0 overall, and now sitting on a 5-2 record. With a Mountain West championship in its sights, Boise State is just getting poised for a run and should add to its win total with a home win over Colorado State on Saturday.
Entering the day as 25-point favorites, Boise State will need a dominant performance to cover this one, but I think they have a shot. During its three-game win streak, Boise State has won two of its games by 20+ points, with both of those wins coming against struggling Mountain West offenses. Both of those wins came on the blue turf and this week’s matchup with Colorado State looks like a giant mismatch on paper.
Looking at team success rates, Boise State leads the Rams in every category. The Broncos are also averaging 31.3 points per game during their three-game win streak, and are giving up just 15.7 points per game.
A number that keeps standing out to me while looking at this matchup is 20 -- and the fact that Colorado State has yet to score 20 points in any of its first seven games. Coach Jay Norvell‘s high-flying aerial assault has been grounded in his first season, with quarterback Clay Millen throwing for 844-5-4 on the season. Millen, who was injured in Week 4 and didn’t return until last week’s game against Hawaii, is completing 73.3% of his passes, but a high-completion percentage should be expected from a quarterback with a 6.1 aDOT. Millen’s aDOT is surprisingly lower than that of Chase Cunningham, who we just finished talking about for our previous game.
While the Broncos look to assert their dominance over the Mountain West, the Rams are simply looking for points -- which have been hard to come by. Facing a stout Boise State defense on the blue turf this weekend, I’m not sure Colorado State will find many points in this game.
Despite the tall order of 25 points, I love the hot-running Broncos to run away with this one at home.
UPDATE: At the time this article was published the line was Boise State -27. I’d still be willing to bet them at -27, but the move to -25 is too good a value to pass up.
Pick: Boise State -25
2022 G5 Record: 4-11-1
Overall G5 Record: 18-22-2