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One of my favorite plays from last week was the total (60) between Buffalo and Eastern Michigan in a game that featured two high-volume passing teams and two porous pass defenses.
In a game that felt like an easy bet to hit the over, the two teams combined for 54 points in the first half, and ended with a 50-31 Buffalo win.
This offensive onslaught came despite Eastern Michigan rolling out backup quarterback Austin Smith, who went for 190 yards, one touchdown and one interception on 12-of-19 passes, while also adding 72 yards on the ground and another score. Early signs pointed to Taylor Powell starting for the Eagles even after exiting Week 3 against Arizona State with an injury, but it was Smith who drew the surprise start.
Fortunately, Smith getting the start did little to affect the over, as both defenses struggled to keep the other team off the board all afternoon.
The sweat of a good total hitting was a fun way to get in on last week’s action. Fun enough to bring me back for two more totals on this week’s slate.
Here are the games I’m eying in Week 5.
When the lines first dropped, the books had this MAC rivalry as one of the highest-projected totals on the weekend. The opening total of 69 has since dropped to 65.5, but is that number too low?
The fact that Kent State is laying 11.5 here gives me pause. Through three games, the Golden Flashes have been one of the more run-heavy teams in the nation per College Football Data, rushing at a 61% rate -- the 11th-highest rate of any team in the nation. A positive game script for Kent State could lead to more of a ground-control approach and the under hitting in this one.
Quarterback Collin Schlee has yet to attempt more than 24 passes in any of his four starts on the year, and has thrown fewer than 20 passes in two of his four starts. On the year, Schlee has thrown for 682-4-3 while adding 17 carries for 197 additional yards per PFF. Kent State has three running backs with over 100 rushing yards on the season, with Marquez Cooper leading the way with 72-270-4.
Schlee and company could find success through the air if they do choose to let it rip, as Ohio’s defensive success rate against the pass (46.3%) ranks 103rd in the nation, but the numbers suggest they’ll keep the ball on the ground if they can afford to do so.
If the over does hit in this one, it could be spearheaded by a high-volume passing attack shredding a bottom-five pass defense.
Enter quarterback Kurtis Rourke.
Fresh off a 59-52 win over Fordham, Rourke set an Ohio record when he threw for 537 yards while also tossing four touchdowns. Rourke and the Bobcats have aired the ball out in each of their first four contests, and have played in two shootouts against non-Power Five teams.
Much like Ohio’s defense, Kent State’s has left much to be desired. The Flashes rank 130th in the nation in defensive success rate against the pass (56.8%), as teams have moved the ball at will against them through the air. Per PFF.com, Ohio and Kent State boast the fourth and fifth-worst pass coverage grades in the nation, while Ohio’s PFF run defense grade of 49.9 is good for fifth-worst.
The over has hit in all four of Ohio’s games this season and is 2-2 in Kent State’s matchups. These two combined for 61 points last season in a game whose total was 68.5. Rourke threw for 308 scoreless yards in that one but did manage two scores on the ground.
Neither defense is great in this matchup. Even in a positive game script, I think Kent State can manage a few big plays against the Bobcats. I also love the prospect of Ohio’s passing attack wrecking Kent State’s second-worst pass defense in a game that could prove the opening total of 69 wasn’t too bullish.
Pick: OVER 65.5
One of the lowest projected G5 totals on the weekend, Friday night’s game between UNLV and New Mexico features two teams who are averaging 39.5 and 20.5 points per game. After winning just two games all of last season, UNLV is off to a 3-1 start, and have totaled 92 points in their last two games -- defeating North Texas and Utah State in back-to-back shootouts.
Quarterback Doug Brumfeld has caused problems for opposing defenses all season, throwing for 990-8-1 while also rushing for 11-168-4. The Rebels are rushing at a 51.5% rate, while the Lobos are a bit more aggressive on the ground, running at a 59.8% rate while utilizing the triple-option offense.
This total may also be getting pushed down a bit, with UNLV wide receiver Kyle Williams (18-235-4) considered day-to-day after suffering an injury in Week 4 against Utah State. However, Williams is listed on the team’s depth chart ahead of Friday’s game, suggesting he’ll be ready to suit up for this conference tilt. Wide receiver Ricky White (19-317-3) has also come on strong to start the season, averaging 16.7 YPR while averaging an impressive 8.6 YAC/REC.
Leading New Mexico’s triple-option attack are running backs Nathaniel Jones (36-127-1) and Sherod White (26-110-3), while quarterback Miles Kendrick has rushed 18 times for 97 yards on the season. Through the air, Kendrick has thrown for a meager 430-3-3 while completing 57.1% of his passes. New Mexico’s lone win comes against FCS Maine, while their three losses are against FBS competition. The 38-0 loss to LSU can be virtually thrown out when looking at this one.
In that 38-0 loss to LSU, New Mexico had an implied team total of 6.75 points in a game that ironically, also had an over/under of 44 points. The over is 1-3 in New Mexico’s contests this season, but that could also be an indictment of the bad offenses they’ve faced -- the over is a combined 1-7-1 in games played by Boise State and UTEP.
Getting an implied total of 15 points against UNLV this week, I think New Mexico should get on the board a few times Friday. But I’m also buying into a Rebels offense that has proven lethal in each of its last two contests.
It’s also worth noting that the over has hit in each of the last three games played between these two teams. Last season, UNLV walked away 31-17 winners in a game that had an over/under of 45.
PICK: OVER 44
2022 G5 Record: 2-6-1
Overall G5 Record: 16-16-2
