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It was another 1-1 week for the G5 spotlight in Week 11, as Coastal Carolina (-4.5) pulled the proverbial rug out from under me after getting off to a 17-0 lead through one quarter. Backup quarterback Jarrett Guest struggled in his first career start, throwing for 163 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, proving incapable of pulling off a second-half rally after the two sides went into halftime tied at 17-17.
Southern Miss’ run defense found a way to lock down the only part of Coastal’s offense that did any damage in the first half, forcing Guest to beat them with his arm. The Chanticleers walked away 26-23 winners thanks in part to three second-half field goals, but narrowly missed covering as 4.5-point favorites.
On the other side, however, was Air Force, who put the clamps on a bad New Mexico offense while cranking out 35 points in a five-touchdown effort.
The Falcons out-gained New Mexico 470-172 on the day, with 428 of their yards coming on the ground -- as one would expect. Now at 7-3, Air Force gets another big number this weekend against Colorado State, who is arguably in a worse spot than the Lobos were last week.
Loving my Falcons late in the season, I’m ready to run it back with them for a second-straight week, while I envision things going poorly for another service academy team down in Florida. With Week 12 now upon us, let’s dive into the two G5 teams I’m targeting this weekend.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Falcons are 7-3 on the season and 5-5 ATS. In the games they’ve covered, Air Force has either smashed an FCS foe (Northern Iowa) or a bad FBS team. In addition to covering against Northern Iowa in Week 1, Air Force has covered against Colorado, Nevada, UNLV and New Mexico -- teams that are a combined 3-25 on the season. Three of those four games also came at home for the Falcons, where they’ll be playing this week when they take on the 2-8 Rams.
I’ve gone against the Rams once or twice already this season, most recently when they took on Boise State in Week 9 as 25-point underdogs. The Broncos won 49-10 on the Blue turf, holding the Rams under 20 points -- something every team has done this season. The Rams have struggled mightily in their first year under head coach Jay Norvell, ranking dead last in points per game (12.9) while ranking 99th in points allowed per game (29.9). A quick look at the numbers in this matchup shows just how overmatched the Rams could be in this one.
Air Force running back Brad Roberts is seventh in the nation and first in the Mountain West in rushing (235-1236-13), while the Falcons rank 62nd in the nation in points per game (29.5) and are allowing the sixth-fewest points per game (14.4).
Facing a stout Air Force defense at home will make life tough for the worst offense in the nation. Air Force’s commitment to the run means they’ll have to capitalize on their possessions to cover in this one, but the Rams should give them plenty of opportunities to score and a few short-field possessions.
Pick: Air Force -22
Navy is one of the better teams in the nation against the spread, going 6-4 ATS despite a 3-7 overall record that’s anything but good. The Midshipmen have wins over East Carolina, Tulsa and Temple -- with ECU being the only team with a winning record at 6-4. Somehow, some way, Navy continues to push good teams to the brink, covering each of their last two games against Cincinnati and Notre Dame. It took outscoring Notre Dame 16-3 in the fourth quarter to cover at +17, but they got it done nonetheless.
Whether or not Navy will be able to cover against UCF, however, could be a different story.
The Knights are an impressive 7-3 ATS on the season and have a more impressive record overall at 8-2. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has thrown for 2,031-12-6 in nine games and has added another 93-758-9 on the ground, buoyed by a 169-yard, two-touchdown performance last week against Tulane.
UCF blew out several inferior teams earlier in the season, but have won by a touchdown or less in each of their last three games against Cincinnati, Memphis and Tulane, who are a combined 22-9. On the year, the Knights rank 20th in the nation in points per game (35.9) and are 21st in points allowed per game (20.0) while ranking 16th in the nation in offensive success rate (49.0%) and 51st in the nation in defensive success rate (40.5%).
One of the more run-heavy teams in the nation at 56.7%, UCF could struggle to run the ball against a Navy defense that’s allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (85.8), but this one could get out of hand if the Midshipmen can’t breach UCF’s defense on the road.
Navy needed an elite fourth-quarter performance last weekend to cover against Notre Dame. If the Knights go up big this weekend, I’m not sure Navy pulls another fourth-quarter explosion to cover for a third-straight week.
Pick: UCF -15.5
2022 G5 Record: 7-14-1
Overall G5 Record: 21-25-2
