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Week 6 of the College Football season kicks off tonight in New Orleans when the Tulane Green Wave host the Houston Cougars in an American Athletic Conference Matchup.
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Houston Cougars vs. Tulane Green Wave (+6.5) Total: 59.5
Talk about two teams going in different directions. The Cougars are winners of four straight games and are sitting in first place in the AAC. However, that’s only because Cincinnati has not played a conference game yet. The Cougars are 3-2 ATS on the season. On the other hand, Tulane has one win on the season against the FCS Morgan State Bears. In Tulane’s four losses this season, their opponents have combined for 181 points. Lastly, Tulane is 0-3 ATS in their last three games.
PointsBet opened up this game with the Cougars as 4.5 point favorites. My initial thought was this is a trap game; Houston is clearly better than Tulane so why are they just 4.5 point favorites? Since then, the points spread has grown to Houston -6.5. Most shops are reporting close to 90% of the bets and handle backing the Cougars. Nevertheless, I still have the feeling something is up.
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If you take a deeper look at this game, you will notice that since Willie Fritz took over as Tulane’s head coach, his teams are 21-9-1 ATS at home. That’s right; since 2016, Tulane has covered the spread 70% of the time when they are at home. Since 2016, when the Green Wave is a home Underdog, they are 7-2-1 ATS. When an AAC opponent travels to Yulman Stadium, Tulane is 11-7-1 ATS. Tulane has even played a tougher schedule than Houston -- they have played Oklahoma and Ole Miss so far this season. Meanwhile, Houston’s toughest opponent was Texas Tech, the Cougars lone loss of the season.
It will be interesting to see where this line closes but I’m backing the Green Wave ATS and on the Money Line at the current number.
EDGE: Tulane +6.5
