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The college football season gets a soft opening this weekend with a handful of games set to go down in Week 0.
Arguably the biggest game of the weekend, Nebraska and Northwestern get Big Ten action off to an early start, doing so on foreign soil as the two prepare for a 12:30 PM EST tilt in Dublin, Ireland. Below are the other games set to take place on college football’s opening weekend.
Both Nebraska and Northwestern look to rebound from down 3-9 seasons in 2021. Both teams also went 1-8 in conference play, with Nebraska’s lone conference winning coming over Northwestern in Week 5 by a score of 56-7.
In desperate need of a productive 2022, Nebraska head coach Scott Frost returned to campus after taking a $1 million pay cut for the season. Since returning home to the Huskers in 2018, Frost has gone 15-29, with a five-win season in 2019 being his best to date.
Frost is nearing midnight in his time as Nebraska’s head coach. A loss in Week 0 to Northwestern would only move the minute hand on that clock forward.
With the season officially here, let’s take a look at this upcoming Big Ten battle and find out who could walk away with a 1-0 start to the season.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Frost went out of his way to improve Nebraska’s offense this offseason.
The Huskers landed transfer quarterback Casey Thompson from Texas after Thompson entered the portal shortly after Quinn Ewers’ commitment to the Longhorns.
Prior to his commitment to Texas, Thompson was a three-star quarterback and the 16th-ranked dual-threat quarterback of the 2018 class per 247Sports.com.
When he finally got his opportunity to start for the Longhorns last season, Thompson threw for 2,113 yards, 24 touchdowns, and nine interceptions while also rushing for 55-157-4. Far from a perfect quarterback, Thompson completed an underwhelming 32.6% of his deep passes, throwing for 497 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions on passes that traveled 20+ yards downfield. On passes that traveled less than 20 yards downfield, Thompson completed an impressive 74% of his passes, totaling 1,613 yards, 17 touchdowns and three interceptions. It will be interesting to see how he plays in a new offense that’s being led by one of the more coveted offensive coordinators in the nation after last season.
New offensive coordinator Mark Whipple left the confines of Pittsburgh at the conclusion of last season. Whipple, along with the likes of Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison led a full-on aerial assault of the ACC in 2021, on their way to a conference championship. Pickett was a finalist for the Heisman Trophy after throwing for 4319-42-7.
The difference between Whipple’s 2021 Panthers and last season’s Cornhuskers is noticeable. While the Panthers threw at a 50.9% rate last season, Nebraska attempted the second-fewest passes of the season (342).
Veteran receiver Samori Toure (46-898-5) and tight end Austin Allen (38-602-2) have since departed, putting former four-star JUCO receiver Omar Manning in position to lead the team in receiving. Manning went for 26-380-2 last season, averaging 14.6 YPR. At 6-foot-4, 225-pounds, Manning was the top JUCO receiver in the 2020 class after going for 35-727-6 for Kilgore College in 2019.
Nebraska also returns running back Rahmir Johnson (112-495-4) along with five defensive starters. Linebacker Garrett Nelson led the team last season with five sacks and 11.5 TFLs, but will need to cope with the losses of linebacker JoJo Domann and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt -- who both received Second-Team All-Big Ten honors last season. In addition to conference recognition, Domann was also named a Second-Team All-American.
The success of Nebraska’s season will largely hinge on what Whipple and Thompson are able to string together. In hopes of flipping his fortune, Frost will bank on a hot start this weekend.
Northwestern Wildcats
Head coach Pat Fitzgerald enters his 17th season with the Wildcats but isn’t on quite the hot seat that Frost is, despite his 3-9 record last season.
Boasting a career record of 109-90 that includes 10 bowl game appearances, Fitzgerald’s 2021 finish ties for his worst record since his team lost three games in 2019.
Northwestern dealt with some growing pains in 2021 as quarterback Ryan Hilinski looked to establish himself as a starter in his sophomore season. A former four-star quarterback that enrolled at South Carolina as the No. 2 pro-style quarterback in the nation, Hilinski struggled to the tune of 978 passing yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions in nine games. Saying he had a “down bad” 2021 would be an understatement.
The good news for Hilinski and the Wildcats as a whole is that they return nine-of-11 offensive starters from last season, which includes four starters along the offensive line. Running back Evan Hull, who rushed for 196-1059-7 last season, while also catching 33-264-2, is back for another bout, as is Cam Porter, who missed all of 2021 with what was classified as a “lower-body injury.” As a true freshman in 2020, Porter rushed 81 times for 333 yards and five touchdowns. In his final three games of that season, Porter rushed for 73-301-4 against Illinois, Ohio State and Auburn, helping Northwestern to a 2-1 record over that span.
Offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian, who enters his third season as the team’s OC, needs to figure out the passing attack. Over the last two seasons, the Wildcats have ranked 97th and 111th in passing yards per game. In regards to scoring, they haven’t ranked higher than 93rd in points per game. Their 16.6 points per game last season ranked 125th in the nation -- simply brutal.
Wide receiver Malik Washington returns to lead the team after going for 44-578-2 last season, but most of this group will rely on another year of experience to move them forward in 2022. The Wildcats return five defensive starters from last season, including 2021 sack leader, defensive lineman Adetomiwa Adebawore, but will need to improve on their 29.0 points allowed per game.
The Matchup
Nebraska (-11) vs. Northwestern - O/U 49.5
Nebraska opened this game as 10.5-point favorites and ballooned out to -13 before settling at -11 the day before kickoff. Northwestern benefits from having this game played on neutral turf, but Pat Fitzgerald and company know they’re walking into a challenge this weekend.
The Huskers will look to establish what I believe to be a pass-heavy identity early in this one, against a defense that allowed just 216.5 passing yards per game last season. On the surface, Northwestern’s pass defense appeared stout, but negative game scripts allowed opponents to rush for 213.9 yards per game, as the Wildcats also dodged a talented group of Big Ten quarterbacks.
Northwestern avoided matchups against Ohio State, Maryland and Penn State -- teams that ranked first, third and fourth in total passing yards. Even with an unproven wide receiver corps, I love the addition of Whipple, and think Thompson showed enough in 2021 to inspire confidence this season.
While it may not be the 56-7 shellacking we saw in this game last season, Nebraska has the advantage on both offense and defense. I’ll take them to cover in their season-opener.
Pick: Nebraska (-11)
