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Notre Dame Notes: 0-2 Irish Welcome Cal

Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

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Me: Siri, show me a team that’s down bad.

Siri:

Me: Ouch.

After a 21-10 loss to Ohio State to open the season, the last anybody expected to see was a home loss to Marshall. The Irish entered last week as 20.5-point favorites over Marshall but allowed themselves to get beat up and down the field for much of the day. At one point the Irish were down by as many as 11 points. At halftime, they trailed 9-7.

We’re two weeks into the season and Notre Dame is still looking for its first win. They’ll once again try for a home win when they welcome Cal to town, as the 2-0 Bears look to be the latest team to pull off an upset in South Bend.

Head coach Marcus Freeman has a lot of work to do ahead of this one, with quarterback Tyler Buchner (shoulder) expected to be out for the remainder of the season.

Let’s have a look at the matchup and see if the Irish can turn things around this weekend.

Notre Dame

With Tyler Buchner under center, the Irish struggled. Through two games, Notre Dame is ranked 118th in points per game (15.5), 117th in yards per game (302.0) and 97th in passing yards per game (199.0). Notre Dame has been slightly better in offensive success rate, ranking 78th in the nation (41.5%), but there’s no denying the offensive struggles this team has faced out the gate.

As if things couldn’t get any worse, Notre Dame will now turn to third-year quarterback Drew Pyne, who saw limited action with the team last season.

Since arriving on campus, Pine has completed 20-of-39 passes for 256 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. One of his touchdowns came in garbage time last week vs. Marshall after the Thundering Herd already had the game in hand.

A former four-star quarterback from the 2020 class, Pyne was once the No. 8 ranked quarterback on 247Sports.com, although composite rankings across the nation had him as the QB19 of his class.

Drew Pyne 247Sports Profile

Drew Pyne 247Sports Profile

Those interested in a larger sample size of Pyne will get it. Even with the limited sample size we have, PFF.com indicates that Pyne has been relatively conservative with what little action he’s seen -- boasting a 6.6 YPA to go with an ADOT of 9.5. In his career, he’s attempted just four passes of 20+ yards downfield.

On the defensive side of the ball, Notre Dame has also struggled. That was apparent in last week’s game against Marshall.

Despite coach Freeman’s defensive background, the Irish rank 122nd in defensive success rate (49.3%), meaning that the opposing offense is getting the requisite yards needed to extend that drive on nearly half of their plays. If that sounds bad, it sounds worse when you realize the likes of UConn, Nebraska and Colorado are only a few spots off from the former No. 5 team in the nation.

California

Living in Notre Dame opposite world, the Golden Bears are off to a 2-0 start on the season with wins over California-Davis and UNLV -- not exactly teams anybody is sweating.

Quarterback Jack Plummer has been the only signal-caller to throw a pass for Cal on the young season, going 51-of-74 through the air for 546 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Despite a relatively soft start to the season, Cal has thrown the ball at a 55% rate and has a pass-play success rate of 40.3%.

Jack Plummer Stats 2022

Jack Plummer Stats 2022

Despite a relatively soft start to their schedule on paper, Cal’s path to a 2-0 start hasn’t exactly been impressive. They’re 1-1 ATS, narrowly escaping UNLV with a 20-14 win despite entering as 12.5-point favorites. And their overall offensive success rate of 40% ranks 88th in the nation.

For a team that’s struggled out the gate as much as Notre Dame, you could argue that Cal has had similar struggles against lesser opponents, but was fortunate enough to walk away with the win.

Cal handled its business on the defensive side of the ball in each of its first two outings but will need to see an offensive improvement if it hopes to pull off the upset.

Irish Pick ‘Em Predictor Picks

Notre Dame vs. Cal Total Points (0-44)

This one’s not expected to offer much in the offensive department, with the over/under currently sitting at 40.5, making this 0-44 feeling like a pretty safe pick. Notre Dame has a mostly unproven quarterback set to suit up on the afternoon and is taking on a Cal team that struggled to move the ball last weekend against UNLV. If this game surpasses 44 points, it’s probably because Notre Dame finally went off after a slow start. I don’t expect an impressive output from Cal -- although Notre Dame has made these productions tough early in the season.

Notre Dame Passing Yards (<200)

As previously mentioned, Notre Dame has averaged 199.0 passing yards per game through the first two weeks and is struggling as a whole on offense. The loss of Tyler Buchner could only add to these struggles -- although Buchner (378-0-2) wasn’t exactly blowing away the competition. I truly believe Notre Dame gets off the schneid in this one and will look to keep things on the ground when possible. To date, the Irish have a near 50-50 split in run vs. pass attempts, with Notre Dame rushing at a 50.4% rate. I’ll take the Irish to go under 200 passing yards in this one.

The Game

Notre Dame vs. Cal Week 3 2022

Notre Dame vs. Cal Week 3 2022

I overlooked Marshall in a big way last weekend when I picked Notre Dame to cover a 20.5-point spread. Instead, Notre Dame left South Bend as outright losers. Getting a read on the Irish ahead of last week’s game was tough after a close Week 1 matchup against Notre Dame, but it’s quite possible that this team will struggle in year one under Marcus Freeman -- at least offensively. I’m not ruling out a defensive bounce back in the coming weeks, but this offense looks like anything other than a team capable of separating itself form opponents. In what could already be a low-scoring game with Drew Pyne at quarterback, I’m taking the Golden Bears to cover, in a game I like the Irish to win.

Pick: Cal (+11)

2022 ATS: 5-6-1