Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium College Football Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. Click here to learn more!
Heading into Week 8 of the college football season, I am once again asking sportsbooks to stop suggesting Notre Dame is good.
Once ranked as the No. 5 team in the nation, the Irish have consistently played to their competition. After losing 21-10 to the Buckeyes in Week 1, the Irish went on to lose outright to Marshall as 20.5-point home favorites and lost 16-14 to Stanford last weekend despite being 16.5-point favorites.
Currently, Notre Dame is 3-3 against the spread. The only thing consistent with the Irish, outside of their ability to underperform as massive favorites, is the under. Through six games, the under is 4-1-1, which makes sense given the Irish’s struggles on the offensive side of the ball.
Heading into Week 8, Notre Dame gets what should be a cakewalk against a UNLV team that’s likely to be without its starting quarterback for a second-straight week. Currently sitting as 26.5-point favorites, there’s no reason to believe the Irish can’t walk away with a home win in this one.
But the fact that it feels so easy is the very reason to doubt them -- as we’ve learned throughout the season.
Notre Dame
I mentioned a few Notre Dame players in my Week 8 CFB DFS column. The 26.5-point spread should make for a positive game script for the Irish, allowing them to stick to the ground throughout the day. This should bode well for running back Audric Estime, who leads the team in rushing (76-404-5) and should see plenty of success against a UNLV defense that ranks 129th in defensive success rate against the run at 53%.
One of the most run-heavy teams in the nation (56.2%), the Irish should welcome the opportunity to run it all over UNLV. The Rebels are allowing the 42nd-most rushing yards per game in the nation (164.4) and are 74th in points allowed per game (27.7). Sitting at 4-3 on the season, UNLV has turned in some solid performances in their wins -- which came over Idaho State, North Texas, Utah State and New Mexico. Unfortunately, against tougher competition, they’ve been outscored 82-14 over the last two weeks.
Quarterback Drew Pyne, who has thrown for 872-10-2 in five games has been up and down this season, with his biggest struggle coming last week against Stanford. In that game, Pyne threw for 151-1 and completed just 48.1% of his passes against a Cardinal defense that has struggled to slow down opposing offenses. Pyne and tight end Michael Mayer (38-411-5) will have plenty of chances to produce, but I expect the Irish to stick to the ground as long as game script allows.
UNLV
As previously mentioned, UNLV is 4-3, but has now lost two-straight games by a combined score of 82-14, falling to San Jose State in Week 6 and Air Force last week. The loss of quarterback Doug Brumfield (1,226-8-2) was felt in both of those losses, and could play a role in this weekend’s game against Notre Dame.
UNLV beat reporter Mike Grimala reported on Wednesday that Brumfield was sidelined in practice and looks unlikely to suit up this weekend, which would give way to Cameron Friel to make his second-consecutive start of the season.
Doug Brumfield did not practice today; looks like his concussion will keep him out of UNLV’s game at Notre Dame on Saturday.
— Mike Grimala (@MikeGrimala) October 19, 2022
Running back Aidan Robbins also didn’t practice due to a knee injury.
Receiver Kyle Williams was on the field, participating in a non-contact jersey. pic.twitter.com/gcPXNYuBe8
Over the last two weeks, Friel has thrown for 261-2-1, completing 63.9% of his passes, but struggling to get much going through the air. With another week of preparation under his belt, Friel could find a bit more success this weekend against a Notre Dame team that has allowed 288+ passing yards in two of their last three games.
Wide receiver Ricky White (33-444-4) has served as the team’s leading receiver on the season but has been held to 14-127-1 over his last four games after a solid three-game stretch to start the season.
It’s easy to get high on the Rebels and their 4-3 start after last season’s 2-10 finish, but this could be a team that quickly reverts to its old ways with its starting quarterback sidelined. Their performance over the last two weeks suggests an implosion -- at least for the short term -- could be incoming as they prepare to face tougher competition.
Irish Pick ‘Em Predictor
Notre Dame Rushing Yards
I picked the Irish to wreck Stanford on the ground last week after the Cardinal entered last week’s contest allowing 207 rushing yards per game. The Irish were 16-14 losers in that game but still managed to top the 135+ rushing yards prop with 154 yards on the afternoon, and I like them to top that total again this week. Whether or not the Irish are able to cover as 26.5-point favorites is one thing. But as a run-heavy team that I still expect to win, 135+ rushing yards feels like an easy bet to hit once again.
Notre Dame Rushing Yards: 135+
Notre Dame Margin of Victory
The Irish are 3-3 ATS and get a big number this weekend. As double-digit favorites, they’re 0-3 ATS and have been outright losers in two of those games -- each of them coming at home. Their inability to cover at home against teams that the books are treating as inferior competition does little to instill confidence in their ability to cover here. While I still think they’ll walk away as winners, 26.5 points feel like a big number for a run-heavy team to cover.
Notre Dame Margin of Victory: 15-20 Points
The Game
I’ve already suggested that I don’t think the Irish will cover as 26.5-point favorites on the weekend, so let’s have a look at the total for this one. After opening at 49.5 points, the total for this game has dropped to 47.5, with 79% of the cash and 57% of the tickets currently on the under. The under is a combined 8-4-1 between these two teams and feels like a reach to hit here. My confidence in UNLV’s offense is low. For this under to hit, I think UNLV’s defense will need to bend but not break and limit the big plays. We’ve already established that UNLV’s success rate against the run isn’t great, but Notre Dame’s offense -- particularly their rushing attack -- is far from explosive. Per College Football Data, the Irish rank 124th in overall offensive explosiveness (1.10) and are 126th in rushing explosiveness (0.74). While Notre Dame may find the requisite yards needed to keep drives alive, they could struggle to crank off big plays. To date, the Irish have seen just 10 of their 211 rush attempts go for 15+ yards.
PICK: Under 47.5
2022 Record: 16-26-1
