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With much of the college football world watching, Notre Dame saw itself up 38-20 heading into the fourth quarter against Florida State in the season opener. Kyle Hamilton had 2 interceptions, Kyren Williams was beating the Seminoles defense in the passing game and Jack Coan played even better than expected. As I attended AEW’s All Out, I saw the score and felt pretty comfortable that the Irish were going to cover -7 spread. Once I left the arena, I checked the final score and was shocked they had only won by 3 in overtime. As I watched the game back the next day, it was incredibly clear to me as to why they didn’t get the cover.
The return of McKenzie Milton.
In the 2017 season, Teddy Bridgewater came back from an incredibly similar injury to a rousing ovation against the Cincinnati Bengals. While the game was in hand for the Vikings, the moment felt special. Bridgewater came back just over a year after nearly losing his leg to a brutal knee dislocation and torn ligaments. On Saturday, McKenzie Milton came back under similar circumstances, except his return was 34 months from his injury and his team was down 10. Once he entered the game, it felt like magic.
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Unfortunately, a scenario like this will come around and produce a result that was unexpected. You can chalk it up to bad luck, but I see it more so as a one-time anomaly. What gets lost in the moment of Milton’s return is that the total was set at 55.5. This was the eighth straight game where the over hit when it was between 53.5 and 57.5 and now the over is 10-4 overall in Florida State’s last 14 games. 1-1 isn’t the greatest start to the season, but Week 1 always seems to provide something off the wall and wacky.
Heading into their home opener against Toledo live on Peacock, the Irish are feeling pretty good about their offense, especially quarterback Jack Coan. There were a lot of questions about how Coan would do leading this team and they were all warranted. What he did do was step up and deliver a big game, including hitting the over on 2 of the props set by PointsBet Sportsbook I had mentioned in my piece last week.
O/U 238.5 passing yards-Over with 366 yards
O/U 1.5 touchdown passes-Over with four touchdown passes
While Coan succeeded, star running back Kyren Williams fell way short of PointsBet’s 98.5 rushing yards O/U. It was a tough break for those who felt like it was a sure thing, but a bright spot was his six catches for 83 yards. Until we start to see a trend with Williams, it might be best to look at his yards from scrimmage numbers, as the short passing game might be utilized more than a traditional rushing game. This game will be an interesting one, especially from a over/under perspective. Here are the bets that I am confident in for this Saturday’s game.
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Over 55.5
This is a very interesting total to bet on, mainly because the splits from both sides are very opposite. Over the last seven games, the over is 6-1 for Toledo when the week prior was an ATS loss. Yes, last week’s 49-10 win over Norfolk State was only 0.5 points away from being an ATS win, but a loss is still a loss. On the flip side, the under is 9-2 in Notre Dame’s last 11 games following an over win.
Why am I taking the over here? Two main reasons: the weather and the offense. Going into this game, it projects to be 84 degrees and sunny which are both great for a high scoring game. However, the wind looks to be a decent factor projecting to be just over 17 mph. What this does is plays right into the hands of the Irish. Their offense looks to be at its most successful with a short and quick passing game, something that you will have to utilize in these conditions with Jack Coan as your quarterback. Smash the over here.
Notre Dame -17
More so than any other option on this game, I feel like this is great value. Notre Dame started out as an 18.5 point favorite with the odds dropping all the way to 16.5 on Wednesday. Notre Dame has a history of playing well against non-conference opponents, including winning it’s only game against a G5 opponent in South Florida 52-0 last season. Toledo does have a solid offense lead by quarterback Carter Bradley, but I don’t think the defense will be able to stop the Irish enough to keep this game close.
Jack Coan Over 226.5 passing yards
What we saw last week with the Tommy Rees offense I believe will continue. The Irish utilized a lot of short passes throughout the game and the weather will continue that trend. Kyren Williams is shaping up to have a really nice game through the air, and the young receiving corps will have some of the pressure taken off them, especially with Xavier Watts moving to rover this week. While Toledo isn’t a complete slouch, they aren’t a world-beater either, which should leave a lot of opportunities for this Irish offense to move the football effectively.
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