Making a betting line without arguably the best player in college football is a complex issue.
When it comes to a quarterback at a perennial powerhouse, sportsbooks have to calculate the worth of the starter, the moxie of the backup and also the strength of the team and scheme.
So oddsmakers had their hands full when Clemson quarterback and future No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence was officially ruled out of Saturday’s showdown at Notre Dame. Lawrence tested positive for COVID-19 before the Tigers’ last game with Boston College and he’ll be out against the Irish.
The first number that popped in the betting market was Clemson -3. By Sunday afternoon, a few shops were up to Clemson -5.5 and the market has pretty much settled there. PointsBet Sportsbook is currently dealing the Tigers -6 (-115) with a total of 52.[[ad:athena]]
I’ve gotten a variety of answers about the drop-off from Lawrence to true freshman D.J. Uiagaleli. Some people believe Lawrence is worth a full touchdown, but others aren’t so high.
“I don’t really have a huge drop-off,” Westgate SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers told NBC Sports. “I made Clemson -7.5 or -8 with Lawrence in and around -4 with him out. It’s right in the middle of those two numbers now. Some people would have it higher with him in and lower with him out. I guess we’ll see who’s right on Saturday.
“It might be heresy to say this outloud, but I think [Travis Etienne] is worth more at this point,” Beyers opined. “That guy does everything. The sky is the limit for him. He would probably help half the teams in the NFL right now. If Clemson continues to lean on Etienne, the quarterback position won’t be worth nearly as much as the markets make it out to be.”
Elite college football programs usually have it pretty good. They have the luxury of possessing so much pure talent and depth that they can often replace a first round pick with another first round pick. And that may very well be the case for the Clemson quarterback situation. I personally think the drop-off is closer to six points and I have my concerns about Uiagaleli starting his first meaningful game on the road.
Beyers isn’t so concerned.
“At this point, Clemson is what Alabama was five or six years ago,” he analyzed. “They’re really reloading every year and they recruit well enough to where they’re beating the snot out of people most weeks and the second stringers are able to get a lot of experience. So when the next year comes and everybody goes to the NFL, Clemson has guys that have game experience at a high level.”
Two weeks ago, I wrote that I was too ready to bet Clemson in this spot. Obviously, that was before Lawrence tested positive, so things have changed. I’m still semi-tempted by such a low spread, but there are better spots on the board. I definitely won’t be betting against the Tigers though.
“Clemson has traditionally done really, really well in these spots under Dabo,” Beyers recalled. “Anytime they’re laying less than double-digits in a conference game, they generally step up to their peak performance level and get the money.”
It’s still early in the week, so there’s plenty of time to see this number get batted around. I’ll be curiously waiting to see if Clemson climbs to -7. You would imagine support will show for the Tigers at anything under a touchdown and then of course the eventual pushback will follow on the Irish at +7.
“There haven’t been any bettors showing their hand yet,” Beyers said. “There might be a hard move one way or the other, but I won’t be surprised it is closes where it’s at now. I think there will be respected money on both sides.”
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