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It was a mostly quiet day, at least in terms of this year in college football. Just one ranked team lost to an unranked squad, and it wasn’t terribly surprising as Ole Miss isn’t bad at all. The juicier upsets came in the ranked-ranked matchups, of which there were only four. Two lower ranked teams upset the higher, including one of the four remaining undefeated teams, while another was a classic ACC shootout, which this year is out Big 12ing the Big 12 in terms of high powered offenses versus defenses that clearly can’t keep up. Despite most games going fairly chalky, bettors were rather unsure this week. Just two teams were favored by over 80% of bettors and total money. On the other, four games were split rather decisively, including the biggest split of the year.
Upset Alert
Mississippi State @ #17 Auburn (Line: Auburn -4, O/U 51)
Result: Mississippi State wins 43-34
The only ranked team that lost to an unranked this week and this one has to hurt. The Tigers took a 28-10 lead into the second half, probably feeling pretty good about their chances. Then Will Rogers Entered God Mode and absolutely dismantled Auburn’s defense. Rogers put together a truly phenomenal stat line, hitting 80% of his passes for 415 yards and six touchdowns. He may keep things relatively short, but even still his accuracy is undeniable, and it’s getting clear results. Getting dinked and dunked down the field is supposed to stop working eventually, but somehow it didn’t despite the fact that Mississippi State only converted 30% of their third downs (although they did convert on 2/2 4th down tries). Credit has to go to the Bulldogs defense as well, who stiffened up in the second half after a dismal first, allowing only six points. They blocked a field goal, and got a strip sack that ended the game. Rogers seems to be hitting his stride and fitting into Mike Leach’s notorious system. In his last three games he’s completing 81.6% of his passes while throwing for 392 yards and 3.6 touchdowns per game with just one interception. As a team, Mississippi State is playing like the Purdue of the SEC. They are 6-4 with three of their wins coming against ranked teams (they also beat N.C. State in Week 2 when they were unranked) yet they also have baffling losses, losing to Memphis, LSU and Arkansas and barely scraping out a win against Louisiana Tech. For betting purposes, they are certainly a wild card and I’d rather bet against them versus Tennessee State than against Ole Miss at this point.
As far as betting action goes, the relatively small number for the supposedly stronger team at home made Auburn a popular choice. Bet and handle percentage were both over 70% in favor of the Tigers. Neither team was coming in hot, with Mississippi State having just been upset by Arkansas and Auburn getting dominated defensively by Texas A&M, and it would have been tough to guess that Auburn’s defense, their calling card, would get so decimated. More interesting was the O/U. The over hit by a mile once Mississippi State started rolling. The public was split, with just 54% of total bets going towards the over, while a whopping 70% of the total money thought that Auburn’s defense would hold up. They did not and the bettors got kind of hosed on this one. Speaking of bettors losing big…
Oklahoma @ #13 Baylor (Line: OU - 6, O/U 63)
Result: Baylor wins 27-14
Big 12 games are supposed to be shootouts, but Oklahoma’s shaky play finally caught up with them with a total collapse at the QB position. Spencer Rattler was already a huge disappointment, and now it was Caleb Williams’ turn to let the Sooners down, with Williams throwing for just 146 yards and two picks before Rattler came back in. Meanwhile, Baylor pounded Oklahoma into dust on the ground, piling up 296 total rushing yards, which was more than Oklahoma’s entire offense. Unsurprisingly, Baylor also dominated time of possession which led to a relatively low score. Unfortunately, a massive majority thought the game was going over, with 89% of total bets and 91% of the total handle hoping for a shootout. It’s tough to blame the bettors, as Oklahoma had dropped 50+ in three of their past four, and while Baylor wasn’t quite as prolific; they still went over 30 in three of their past four. The Bears were perfectly content to run the ball and the clock however, and Oklahoma was not interested in stopping them.
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Protectors of Your Cash
#9 Notre Dame @ Virginia (ND -4.5, O/U 63)
Result: Notre Dame Wins 28-3
Just one protector this week, with the Irish coming through for the big majority. It was a shocking performance from the ND defense (in the good way) and the Virginia offense (in the bad way). The Cavaliers had scored 48+ in their past three games in a row, and were held to just three in this one, and Notre Dame completely controlled the game throughout. The Fighting Irish racked up seven sacks, and the Cavaliers looked helpless without Brennan Armstrong. Combined with penalties, strange 4th down calls and missed field goals and you have a perfect storm of terrible.
Bettors forecasted that one, with 87% of the total bets riding with Notre Dame, and 89% of the money. I’m sure Armstrong’s absence played a large part in the lopsided action, and it pays to be informed. That also probably helped the O/U action not go as lopsided, with a somewhat low 66% of bets and 71% of the handle taking over. Those probably would have been higher if Armstrong was able to go, as Virginia has absolutely shattered their last two point total predictions by a combined 75 points.
Failure to Launch
It should be noted that Cincinnati once again failed to cover, which is five straight now for them. Despite that, 82% of the handle took them again, which was a mistake again. Perhaps a much smaller spread against a much better (compared to what they’ve been facing) team in SMU next week will finally allow the Bearcats to break their duck, but it’s been a tough stretch for bettors.
#24 Utah @ Arizona (Line: Utah -24, O/U 54.5)
Result: Utah wins 38-29
Oof, this was not a good look for the Utes, who had a tough fight against the then 1-8 Arizona Wildcats. To be fair though, the Wildcats have quietly put together a solid four weeks score-wise with Will Plummer back. His stats are nothing to write home about, but they had one score games against Washington and USC, beat Cal and had a close game in this one as well. That’s a far cry from the team that lost to Northern Arizona. Still, Utah really struggled to put away the Wildcats despite earning 468 yards of offense and not turning the ball over. Penalties hurt for sure, and Arizona got a blocked punt touchdown in the 4th that made things very interesting.
Arizona playing better and keeping games close through hook or by crook hasn’t been convincing to Vegas, who set the big line which bettors happily took. A week high 91% of the handle took the Utes to crush Arizona, and a somewhat more conservative, but still high, 82% of the total bets went the same way. Like implied above, Arizona might be a sneaky cover play, as they’ve covered four straight times now, with three of those being large point deficits. Kind of an anti-Cincinnati if you will.
Split Decisions
There were a few rather sizable disagreements between what the majority of tickets went with versus the money this week. In a surprising twist, the money was on the losing end on basically all of them, as in all four cases they took the underdog, including Purdue and Tennessee.
Maryland @ #7 Michigan State (Line Michigan State -12, O/U 61.5)
Result: Michigan State wins 41-20
Michigan State getting Boilermaker’d seemed to have dropped them TOO low in the court of public opinion, as they were just 12 point favorites at home, versus a 5-4 Maryland team that just got handedly beat by Penn State. Bettors were shockingly the less reactionary of the two, with 79% of them rolling with the Spartans to get an easy win. On the other hand, the total handle favored Maryland, with 68% of it going to the Terps, who never looked close to covering after the first quarter. That split difference is the biggest this year, as it’s rare for splits to go over well over the 50s percentage-wise on BOTH sides.
On a more positive note, the majority for both bets (61%) and handle (68%) took under, which made it by the slightest of margins. The Spartans scored a touchdown to get to 61 with a whole 11:19 left in the game, but neither team threatened even a field goal from that point on thankfully.
#16 NC State @ #12 Wake Forest (Line: Wake Forest -1, O/U 64.5)
Result: Wake Forest wins 45-42
This one also seemed like an overreaction to a good team’s first loss, which was a close one to UNC who can always put up points. By kickoff Wake Forest, the higher ranked team with a better record, similar schedule and also at home, was favored by just one point. NC State was coming in with fairly comfortable wins over Florida State and Louisville, but they weren’t anything to get you really excited. Despite that, 70% of the handle took NC State essentially to win, perhaps thinking Wake Forest would have a Kentucky situation where their first loss after an undefeated streak sees them spiral severely. On the other hand, 58% of the tickets stuck with the Demon Deacons, who’s offense proved to be just as potent as always, and their defense proved to be just as bad. This game became a shootout pretty quick, with a 24-20 score at halftime just a signal of things to come. Despite NC State getting more total yards, and a return touchdown, penalties and horrible third down efficiency (3/14) kept them from pulling out the win. That was with Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman having his worst performance of the year too.
The over/under action was also split, and again the majority of the handle chose wrong. While 64.5 is a pretty high number, Wake Forest has been scoring for fun but also giving up as much as they take, while NC State is also no slouch in the scoring department, especially with their QB Devin Leary able to air it out if needed. With all that information, it’s pretty surprising 73% of the handle took under. I really have no idea what they were expecting to happen in this game. On the flip side, 68% of the total bets favored the over, which is also lower than expected to be honest. Still, like mentioned both sides being that far over 50% is quite the split.
Close Call
#6 Michigan @ Penn State (Line: Michigan -2, O/U 48.5)
Result: Michigan wins 21-17
Michigan was actually the underdog when this line opened, eventually giving two points by kickoff. That should be the signal for a close game, and in this case it absolutely was. It was low scoring as befitting a top Big Ten matchup that didn’t involve Ohio State. Penn State tied the game 14-14 in the middle of the 4th quarter and then Michigan proceeded to fumble the ball in their own red zone on the next drive. Penn State was forced to just a field goal however. The next drive, Michigan QB Cade McNamara found TE Erick All on a short drag, with All catching it at the line of scrimmage before getting to the sideline and barely getting across the pylon for Michigan to take back the lead with 4:16 left. Michigan held on to win and cover, which 74% of the bets and 79% of the money had them doing. Also of note was Penn State’s fake field goal at the Michigan 2 in the first quarter. Of course, it was too early to say it wouldn’t have affected the game more dramatically, BUT if you simply add those three points they could’ve easily gotten this becomes a one point game that Michigan actually doesn’t cover.
Minnesota @ #20 Iowa (Line: Iowa -4.5, O/U 37)
Result: Iowa wins 27-22
Speaking of Big Ten matchups and close calls on the spread, Iowa left it till almost the last second to cover. Minnesota made it a two point game with just 6:15 left in the game, but the failed two-point conversion gave Iowa a window. The Hawkeyes used their offensive drive to pin the Gophers deep in their own territory, and Tanner Morgan didn’t manage to complete four straight passes, which turned it over downs on Minnesota’s three-yard line. With 44 seconds left, Iowa kicked a 29-yard field goal to go up by five and just barely sneak the cover. It’s a good thing the line moved as much as it did from opening, as the Hawkeyes started out as 6.5 point favorites before dropping to 4.5. Only 56% of the bets and 52% of the money took the Hawkeyes to cover, so it wasn’t a huge mover either way, but still an entertaining ending.
Final Notes
There were a couple other fun games that bear mention. Clemson failed to cover despite holding UConn to -17 rushing yards, and less than 100 total yards. The Huskies were also 0/14 on third down and 0/4 on fourth down. How did Clemson fail? By giving up a kickoff return for a touchdown on the first play of the game, which stopped them from covering the 40.5 spread. Speaking of massive spreads not covering, Florida somehow let Samford drop 52 points on their head. While they scored 70 themselves, it wasn’t near enough, and the Gators were actually down in that game going into half. Wisconsin has comfortably covered against the Big Ten four games in a row now. The spreads are getting exponentially bigger with each game, but Wisconsin is playing their best football right now and face the 3-7 Cornhuskers next week. They may only give a few points because of how close Nebraska keeps fighting teams, and the Badgers are mowing through teams right now. Oklahoma State blew past their -11.5 and O/U of 54 by beating TCU by 46 and going over on their own. SDSU needed a dramatic final drive to take the lead against Nevada with just 1:30 left, and would have covered the opening -1 line before it moved to -3.5 by kickoff.
There are only two more regular season weeks in this absurd football season. There are still a lot of trap games to come for ranked teams, and I expect quite a few bloodbaths in the coming weeks. There are just three undefeated teams left, and Cincinnati faces perhaps their toughest test next week at SMU. If they were going to lose a game, this would probably be the one. Georgia, barring the biggest upset of the year, should be safe until the SEC championship. Finally, UTSA faces a solid UAB team next week, and the Roadrunners were tied against the 1-9 Southern Miss Golden Eagles until late in the 4th. Cracks are beginning to form, and I expect at least one of Cincinnati or UTSA to be in this column next week.
