@San Jose State (-6) over UNLV | Opened at UNLV (-3.5)
FanDuel opened this game at UNLV - 3.5 at Noon EST on Sunday and by 12:26 it had already flipped to SJSU -1.5 before climbing to -4.5 at 4:36PM. Though the Running Rebels are 4-1, they barely survived a listless first-half going down 17-0 against New Mexico before rallying late thanks to a fourth quarter pick-six to pull out the comeback win 31-20. Starting wideouts Jeff Weimer and Kyle Williams were out which hampered the continuity in the passing game early on as one of their replacements, Nick Williams, lost a fumble on the first drive that led to New Mexico scoring their second touchdown in as many drives. Once UNLV cleaned up their 5 penalties for 50 yards in the first quarter, they were able to keep the Lobos out of the end zone for the rest of the game. It’s easy to see why San Jose State is the preferred side here, with the Spartans currently sitting at 3-1 fresh off a convincing 33-16 victory over Wyoming where they outgained the Cowboys 456-to-253 yards. The Spartans defense has been exceptional, allowing just 4.7 yards per play (16th in FBS), 1.4 points per drive (19th) and 6.0 yards per pass (22nd). UNLV has scored 31 points or more in four-of-five games this season while ranking 28th in rushing defense. Importantly, UNLV ranks 113th in team pass defense which could be problematic against Chevan Cordeiro and the air raid attack of SJSU. I think UNLV’s invigorating 4-1 start ends in San Jose this Friday night.
Texas -6.5 over Oklahoma - Opened at OU -3 (FanDuel)
This game was priced at OU -3 on FanDuel for their last pre-Saturday adjustment before opening at OU -2.5 at 8:25 Saturday AM. The price flipped to UT -1.5 by 9:42 AM and was at 3 by 11:08. We sit at 6.5 with Bet MGM already at 7. It’s going to cross the key number as the week progresses with Dillon Gabriel injured and Oklahoma exposed against TCU. Texas coming off bye and getting Quinn Ewers back is the icing on the cake. Take the Longhorns now while you can get it under 7.
Auburn (+29) over Georgia | Opened at +23.5 (FanDuel)
Much like the above OU -3 opening, FanDuel offered great value for Georgia stans by pricing this game at UGA -23.5 at 9:08 AM on Sunday. It quickly rose to 24.5 at 9:18 before FD finally got the hint to bump it up to -26.5 points an hour and a half later at 10:51AM. Auburn just beat Missouri 17-14 in OT and lost a low-scoring 21-17 affair against LSU on Saturday. Oregon transfer Robby Ashford threw for 337 yards against the Tigers, with the former MLB draftee looking like he could be a credible SEC QB. Georgia star DL Jalen Carter left their game against Mizzou and would be a huge loss for this young UGA D that replaces a record-setting amount of NFL first round draftees. These early Sunday FanDuel drops need to be appointment viewing for all CFB fanatics going forward. While I think the market has over-corrected and like Auburn at 29-points in a rivalry spot given how the Dawgs have struggled in their past two games against Missouri and Kent State, the public feels otherwise.
Alabama (-23.5) over Texas A&M | Opened at -21.5 (FanDuel)
FanDuel once again is low on their Sunday 11:50 AM -21.5 opening which only lasted for four minutes before getting the raise to -23.5. Interestingly the line briefly dropped back down to 21.5 at 2:02 PM before going right back up to -23.5 at 2:16. It’s hovering between 23.5 on FD and 24.5 on BetMGM. I’m backing Alabama despite the potential of Jalen Milroe starting at QB over Bryce Young, as I think Alabama’s defense is going to smother Texas A&M’s erratic and doomed offense in a game that Alabama HC Nick Saban has had circled on his calendar since the SEC Media spat between him and Texas A&M HC Jimbo Fisher, whose team is limping into this game. Saban will show no mercy and covers easily.
San Diego State (-18.5) over Hawaii | Opened at -13.5 (FanDuel)
FanDuel is setting the market again, opening at 11:31 AM with a spread of -13.5 before quickly shooting up to -16.5 at 11:42 AM and -18.5 by 2:29 PM. San Diego State’s offense was borderline unwatchable in the second half against Boise State, as the Aztecs rank dead-last in FBS with 2.9 yards per pass, 127th in success rate (34%) and 126th in EPA/Play. They can run the ball a little bit and have a solid run defense, so SDSU is going to control the line of scrimmage. The Rainbow Warriors’ are allowing 168 more yards than they gain while their -28 points per game scoring deficit is 8.5 points more than the current spread. Lowly New Mexico State beat Hawaii by 19 points last week while Western Kentucky won by 22 and Vanderbilt poured it on for a 63-10 victory. Hawaii is one of the least experienced teams in the nation and has a football program that rumors and innuendo will have you believe could be in jeopardy at some point in the future. I’m guessing this line continues to climb, so jump on an SDSU team in a true get-right spot that needs a morale boost and is going to pour it on if given the opportunity. Caesar’s has it at -18.5, while FD is at -20.5 so i’d grab that low 18.5 number while it’s still available.