All lines courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida | 47.5 - Opened (-20.5) | 58.5
The offseason betting markets set this line at -20.5 |58.5 back in August, where it held until the markets reopened at -17 | 50.5 late Saturday night. We’ve seen the line and total drop to -14.5 | 48.5 as the Gators’ 118th paced offense will look to slow down the Dawgs who are averaging 39 points per game while ranking 4th in points per drive (3.7) and 8th in EPA/Play despite playing at the 97th slowest pace in the nation.
Georgia has run roughshod over their schedule, posting a win expectancy of 92% or higher in every single game thus far, and obliterated a Kentucky squad 51-13 that beat Florida 33-14 while holding the Gators to 69 rushing yards and 2.4 yards per carry. UK was able to obliterate Florida for a staggering 329 rushing yards on 9.1 YPC, but their production plummeted to just 183 total yards while mounting just one drive of 30+ yards.
I think this game will rest on the arm of Graham Mertz, who has finally found a comfort zone under the tutelage of HC BIlly Napier, completing 76% of his passes with an 8-to-1 big time throw to turnover worthy play rate. Mertz will have to be sharp since UGA signal caller Carson Beck has been sensational, ranking fifth overall with a 90.8 PFF pass grade and fourth with an 82.5% adjusted completion rate. I invested heavily in Beck this offseason and picked him up in every Campus 2 Canton league I participate in. I think he stays another year to carve out his Georgia legacy, which is the right move since he will be near the top of an undefined 2025 QB class.
Georgia is not going to be deterred by Florida’s flawed defense that allows 6.1 yards per play and ranks 77th in EPA/Play. UGA’s D is a top flight unit once again, but they allowed 20 points to both Vanderbilt and Auburn. I think the 47.5 game total has come down too far and is ripe for an Over play here.
BYU vs. Texas (-17.5) | 51.5 - Opened (-20.5) | 50.5
The Quinn Ewers injury news Skewed these numbers as the UT starter is considered week-to-week with an AC joint sprain in his left, non-throwing shoulder. Maalik Murphy took over and attempted just two passes, completing one for seven yards. Murphy raised eyebrows in the Texas Spring game with his size, athleticism and arm strength:
https://x.com/NashTalksTexas/status/1716441289594454443?s=20
As you can see from the film, Murphy is going to be a starting QB somewhere next season. Whether or not that will be Texas is very much a question mark with Arch Manning in town. Murphy is a very capable backup who has the benefit of a ground game that averages 180 yards per game and 4.7 YPC behind RBs Jonathan Brooks and Cedric Baxter. Texas’ 19th ranked rush defense is ideally suited to shut down an ineffective BYU run game that checks in at 128th nationally in terms of overall performance.
The Cougars will be hard pressed to replicate their 150 rush yards and 5.0 YPC from last week’s 27-14 victory over Texas Tech who committed a baffling five turnovers and nine penalties for 80 yards lost. This will be the 3rd straight game that BYU has faced a backup quarterback, with TCU QB Josh Hoover throwing for 438 yards and four touchdowns in a 44-11 rout over Brigham Young two weeks ago.
I have a hard time believing we get a shootout here, as Texas asserts themselves on both sides of the line and plays it safe with a first-time starting QB. Against the Cougars’ one dimensional offense there’s no reason for UT to gas it up and give BYU hope by turning the ball over like Texas Tech did. I think the Under 51.5 is the play here.
Army vs. UMass (+10) | 47.5 - Opened (+13.5) | 45.5
Army is 7-1 to the Over and 1-7 straight up through eight games, while Army is 4-3 to the Over. Those numbers account for the two-point uptick in this total, which is rare for a service academy. However HC Don Brown’s UMass team has arguably the worst defense in the country, ranking 131st in success rate (50.5%) and yards per play allowed (7.4) while ranking dead last in EPA/Play and points allowed with 42.4. The Minutemen also have squandered potential wins against Eastern Michigan (86% win expectancy) and New Mexico (61%), and have lost seven consecutive games following a Week 1 victory over NMSU.
Army is coming off Power Five heavy run of games against Syracuse, BC, Troy and a 62-0 destruction at the hands of LSU last week. The Black Knights see the Minutemen as an oasis in their brutal schedule and will be highly motivated to turn in a strong performance against UMass’ aforementioned pitiful defense before taking on Air Force next week. The problem is whether or not their dual-threat starting QB Bryson Daily plays, as they’ve scored a total of Zero points in their last two games without him. Freshman QB Champ Harris is 13-of-26 for 130 yards and three interceptions thus far in his collegiate career. Keep an eye on this game and if Daily doesn’t play, the Under 47.5 points is looking pretty appealing given Army’s 130th paced offense.
Other Notable Line Moves:
Oklahoma vs. Kansas (+10) | 66.5 - Opened (+11.5) | 63.5
Penn State (-30.5) at Indiana | 44.5 - Opened (-27.5) | 47.5
Oregon vs. Utah (+6.5) | 49.5 - Opened (+5.5) | 52.5
Mississippi State vs. Auburn (-6.5) | 43.5 - Opened (-6.5) | 47.5
USC vs. Cal (+10.5) | 66.5 - Opened (+7) | 63.5
Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State (-7.5) | 54.5 - Opened (-5.5) | 53.5
Oregon State vs. Arizona (+3.5) | 56.5 - Opened (-5.5) | 56.5
BetMGM College Football Insights: Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Current)
- Michigan +300 to +225
- Ohio State +900 to +700
- Florida State +900 to +750
- Alabama +1800 to +1400
Highest Ticket%
- Michigan 13.8%
- Ohio State 9.5%
- Colorado 9.5%
Highest Handle%
- Alabama 31.9%
- Michigan 10.9%
- Colorado 9.9%
Biggest Liability
- Colorado
- Alabama
- USC
BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
- JJ McCarthy +2500, +240
- Michael Penix Jr. +1600, +300
- Caleb Williams +500, +10000
- Shedeur Sanders +12500, +25000
- Travis Hunter +15000, off the board (injury)
Highest Ticket%
- Shedeur Sanders 16.9%
- Travis Hunter 13.6%
- Caleb Williams 10.4%
Highest Handle%
- Caleb Williams 16.8%
- Shedeur Sanders 15.6%
- Michael Penix Jr. 11.2%
