The No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers (10-2) face the Duke Blue Devils (7-5) in the 2025 ACC Championship.
Virginia is looking for its first outright ACC title, with a College Football Playoff berth on the line. The Cavaliers dominated their regular-season matchup with Duke on November 15, leading 31-3 in the fourth quarter before settling for a 34-17 win.
Duke, an unranked team that secured its spot through a five-way tiebreaker, will need to improve its rushing offense and defensive performance to counter Virginia’s potent ground game and a defense that ranks 28th nationally in yards allowed per play, BUT if they win Saturday, they are headed to the College Football Playoff.
Lets dive into the schools, a few of the top players, and the stats that make up each side.
Game Details and How to Watch Duke at Virginia
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: 8:00PM Eastern
- Site: Bank of America Stadium
- City: Charlotte, NC
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for Duke at Virginia
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Duke Blue Devils (+150), Virginia Cavaliers (-180)
- Spread: Virginia -4 (-108)
- Total: 57.5 points
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Virginia Cavaliers
Head Coach: Tony Elliot
2025 Record: 10-2 (7-1)
Offense Ranking: 49
Defense Ranking: 23
Strength of Schedule: 81
Virginia is enjoying a breakout 2025 season under HC Tony Elliott, sitting at 10-2 (7-1 ACC) with a SP+ ranking of 28th nationally and a balanced identity on both sides of the ball. The Cavaliers’ defense has driven the surge, ranking 23rd in Defensive SP+ and 13th nationally in success rate allowed (36.3%), thriving on havoc creation from all three levels. Offensively, coordinator Desmond Kitchings has built a rhythm-based attack that averages 5.8 yards per play and a 42.5% success rate, ranking 49th in Offensive SP+ while limiting turnovers with a +8 margin (19th nationally). Their situational football has been elite—2nd in third-down defense (27.3%) and 14th in third-down offense (49.2%)—fueling narrow wins over Louisville, Duke, and Florida State. Though their second-order win total (8.0) suggests some good fortune, Virginia’s late-season momentum and balanced efficiency have vaulted them into the ACC Championship.
The Virginia Cavaliers Offense
Virginia’s offense has evolved into a tempo-driven attack that ranks 49th in Offensive SP+ and 8th nationally in plays per game (74.3). The Cavaliers average 5.8 yards per play with a 42.5% success rate, leaning on an efficient run game that gains 5.1 yards per carry and ranks 26th in EPA per rush, complemented by a 65% completion rate through the air. Their third-down efficiency has been outstanding, converting 49.2% overall (14th nationally), while showing versatility with 55.1% success on 3rd-and-mediums and 75% on 3rd-and-shorts. Despite occasional protection issues (112th in pressure rate allowed), Virginia’s blend of pace, balance, and situational poise has made them one of the ACC’s most efficient offenses in 2025.
UVA Player to Watch on Offense: QB Chandler Morris
Chandler Morris proves to be the steady hand of the offense, starting all 12 games and throwing for 2,586 yards and 14 touchdowns on 65.9% completions. His passing efficiency is steady with 11.0 yards per completion and a 7.4 ANY/A, which augmented his mobility — rushing for 337 yards and five scores at an impressive 8.2 yards per carry. Morris’s 43.6% passing success rate, and 68.3% rushing success rate illustrate a dual-threat quarterback who keeps the chains moving even when protection breaks down. While not an elite deep passer, his ability to extend plays, limit sacks (3.8% rate), and generate explosive scrambles makes him the offense’s most consistent creator.
The Virginia Cavaliers Defense
Virginia’s defense has been the backbone of its 10-win campaign, ranking 23rd in Defensive SP+ and 13th nationally in success rate allowed (36.3%). Coordinator John Rudzinski’s aggressive scheme thrives on disruption, generating an 18.2% havoc rate (13th nationally) with Top 15 marks across the defensive line and secondary. The Cavaliers excel in key situations, ranking 2nd in third-down defense (27.3%) and holding opponents to just 1.51 points per drive (15th) while forcing 19 turnovers for a +8 margin. With a pressure rate of 41.2% (2nd nationally) and elite tackling consistency (87.7%), Virginia’s defense consistently dictates games, turning sustained drives into rare commodities for opposing offenses.
UVA Player to Watch on Defense: OLB Mitchell Melton
Mitchell Melton is the defense’s tone-setter off the edge, combining power and burst to rack up 19 havoc plays, including 13 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks across 12 games. He’s been one of the most disruptive players in the ACC, generating pressure on 15.0% of his 234 pass rushes and forcing two fumbles while creating five sacks for teammates. Melton’s 84.7% tackle rate and 17 run stops underscore his reliability in both pass-rush lanes and backside pursuit. A complete edge defender who thrives in both chaos and containment, Melton has emerged as a steady game-wrecker in the heart of UVA’s front seven.
Duke Blue Devils
Head Coach: Manny Diaz
2025 Record: 8-1
Offense Ranking: 23
Defense Ranking: 91
Strength of Schedule: 60
Duke’s 2025 season under HC Manny Diaz has been a rollercoaster of offensive firepower and defensive inconsistency, resulting in a 7-5 record (6-2 ACC) and an SP+ ranking of 53rd nationally. Offensively, the Blue Devils thrive behind an efficient and explosive attack—ranking 23rd in Offensive SP+, 19th in EPA/play, and 17th in points per drive, fueled by a 45.3% success rate and a Top 25 explosiveness profile. However, their 91st-ranked defense has been the limiting factor, surrendering 6.21 yards per play and ranking 127th in passing success rate allowed (47.0%), despite a strong front-seven havoc rate that sits 37th nationally. Duke’s underlying metrics suggest mild overperformance—just 5.8 second-order wins versus 7 actual—but the program continues to trend upward offensively under Diaz’s aggressive, up-tempo approach. With a spot in the ACC Championship secured, and a handful of conference wins in hand, the Blue Devils were one of the ACC’s most entertaining yet volatile teams in 2025
The Duke Blue Devils Offense
Duke’s offense has quietly evolved into one of the ACC’s most combustible units, ranking 23rd nationally in Offensive SP+ and Top 20 in both EPA/play (0.19) and points per drive (3.03). The Blue Devils excel at staying on schedule with a 45.3% success rate (41st) and a 78.9% down-set conversion rate (17th), combining 5.0 yards per rush with a 46.0% passing success rate. They push the ball vertically more often than most, ranking 19th in plays of 20+ yards while still protecting QB Darian Mensah well behind a disciplined line (only 2.6% pressure rate allowed). Mensah has been sharp and mistake-free—just 0.9% interception rate (3rd nationally)—allowing offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer’s scheme to fully capitalize on its rhythm passing and explosive tendencies.
Duke Player to Watch on Offense: QB Darian Mensah
Darian Mensah has been the engine of Duke’s offense, delivering a sharp and efficient campaign with 3,450 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions across 12 starts. He completes 67.5% of his throws at an impressive 12.1 yards per completion, ranking among the ACC’s most Dangerous passers with a 9.0 adjusted net yards per attempt and 77.8 Total QBR. Mensah has shown poise under pressure, taking sacks on just 5.4% of dropbacks while maintaining a 46.1% passing success rate in a rhythm-heavy scheme. Though not a major rushing threat (99 yards, 1 TD), his steady pocket command and accuracy downfield have elevated Duke’s offense into one of the league’s most consistent aerial attacks.
The Duke Blue Devils Defense
Duke’s defense has been the team’s clear weakness in 2025, ranking 91st in Defensive SP+ and allowing opponents to average 6.21 yards per play—one of the worst marks in the ACC. The Blue Devils struggle heavily against the pass, giving up a 47.0% success rate and 7.6 yards per dropback, ranking outside the top 120 nationally in both categories. While the front seven flashes some disruptive capability with a 37th-ranked havoc rate and decent line play against the run (56th in yards per rush allowed), the secondary consistently fails to contain explosive plays, surrendering 8.3% of plays of 20+ yards (131st). Manny Diaz’s unit remains aggressive and blitz-oriented but lacks the coverage consistency needed to support its lethal offense, resulting in frequent high-scoring affairs.
Duke Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Vincent Anthony Jr.
Vincent Anthony Jr. has emerged as Duke’s most important defensive player, producing 16 havoc plays, 11.5 tackles for loss, and a team-best 6.5 sacks over 12 games. His blend of length and power shows up in his 9.2% pressure rate and 2.56-second average time to first pressure, consistently collapsing pockets and forcing hurried throws. Anthony’s ability to win off the edge has anchored Duke’s pass rush, creating five total sacks for teammates while drawing extra attention from opposing protections. His steady improvement as both a run defender and pass rusher has made him the Blue Devils’ most reliable presence on a defense that often struggled to generate consistent stops. He needs to have a big game if Duke intends to keep the game close.
Duke and Virginia team stats, betting trends
- Virginia is 8-4 ATS this season
- Duke is 8-4 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in Duke games 9 times this season (9-3)
- The OVER has cashed in UVA games 4 times this season (4-7-1)
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): UVA -3.5
These two teams played 3 weeks ago, which I reviewed in preparation for this cap. UVA absolutely destroyed Duke, but the 34-17 final score was deceptive, as Virginia was up 31-to-3 in Q4 before not one, but TWO purely garbage time touchdowns. Even still, UVA had a 100% Postgame win expectancy, holding Duke to 13 points below projections.
UVA gave it to them any way they wanted to - 316 Pass Yards, J’Mari Taylor rocked them for 133 rushing yards while the team put up 224 for a robust 540 total yards…and that was AT DUKE!
I’m taking UVA -3.5 to the BANK.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between UVA and Duke
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Duke Blue Devils at +4.0.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the under on the Game Total of 57.5.
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