The 2025 Gasparilla Bowl features an exciting matchup between the explosive offense of Memphis (8-4) and an inconsistent NC State (7-5) team. Memphis is led by interim coach Reggie Howard as their former head coach left for Arkansas, while NC State aims to end their five-game bowl losing streak under Dave Doeren. Expect fireworks and plenty of scoring if these offenses perform as they did most weeks of the regular season.
Lets dive into these schools taking a look at each on both sides of the ball and see where the numbers take us.
Game Details and How to Watch Memphis at NC State
- Date: Saturday, December 19, 2025
- Time: 2:30PM Eastern
- Site: Raymond James Stadium
- City: Tampa, FL
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
Game Odds for Memphis at NC State
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Memphis Tigers (+142), NC State Wolfpack (-170)
- Spread: NC State -3.5 (-108)
- Total: 56.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
NC State Wolfpack
Head Coach: Dave Doeren
2025 Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Offense Ranking: 47
Defense Ranking: 72
Strength of Schedule: 48
NC State navigated a rugged ACC slate to a 7–5 finish that closely matched its underlying profile, posting 6.9 second-order wins and settling at 62nd in SP+ (62nd) despite a Top 50 résumé strength. Dave Doeren’s team showed balance rather than dominance, pairing an above-average offense (Offensive SP+ 47th) with a defense that was competitive but inconsistent (Defensive SP+ 72nd), which led to a steady stream of coin-flip outcomes. The Wolfpack’s best ACC work came in wins over Virginia, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and North Carolina, while heavyweights like Notre Dame, Pitt and Miami exposed the unit’s ceiling. Offensively, NC State excelled in finishing drives—boasting the nation’s top red-zone touchdown rate (80.5%, 1st)—but struggled to generate explosive separation between the 20s. In the end this was a respectable, but underwhelming, bowl-caliber season defined by efficiency, situational execution, and limited margin for error rather than true top-tier ACC firepower.
The NC State Wolfpack Offense
NC State’s offense ranked 47th in Offensive SP+ (47th) while averaging 6.11 yards per play (35th) and 2.57 points per drive (35th). The Wolfpack were at their best when drives reached scoring range, leading the nation in red-zone touchdown rate (80.5%, 1st) and converting goal-to-go opportunities at an elite clip (91.3%, 11th). Between the 20s, production was more methodical than explosive, with a solid success rate (42.9%, 60th) but only middling big-play output (7.1% of plays gaining 20+ yards, 41st). That profile produced a steady offensive floor, but the lack of consistent explosiveness capped the unit’s ability to pull away from stronger ACC opponents, despite strong QB play from CJ Bailey. We could see a slew of opt-outs from this unit, clouding their bowl outlook.
The NC State Wolfpack Defense
NC State’s defense was far below their historical standard, finishing 72nd in Defensive SP+ (72nd) while allowing 6.18 yards per play (118th) and 2.41 points per drive (105th). The Wolfpack held up well against the run, limiting rushing success to 38.2% (27th), but vulnerability through the air consistently put stress on the unit (7.2 yards per dropback allowed, 118th). Explosiveness was a major issue, as opponents generated big plays at an elevated rate (7.0% of plays gaining 20+ yards allowed, 92nd) and repeatedly flipped the field. Without a consistent pass rush to bail it out (3.8% sack rate per dropback, 125th), the defense too often bent past its breaking point against higher-end ACC offenses.
Memphis Tigers
Head Coach: Reggie Hayward (Interim)
2025 Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Offense Ranking: 17
Defense Ranking: 71
Strength of Schedule: 92
Memphis posted an 8–4 regular season that largely validated its underlying strength, finishing with 7.2 second-order wins and an SP+ ranking of 34 that placed the Tigers firmly among the AAC’s upper tier. Departed HC Ryan Silverfield’s team rode a Top 20 offense (Offensive SP+ 17th) that blended efficiency and explosiveness, piling up dominant wins over Troy, Florida Atlantic, Tulsa, and Rice while routinely outperforming SP+ projections in those matchups. The Tigers’ résumé was shaped by consistency against weaker opponents and volatility against stronger ones, with narrow wins over Arkansas and USF offset by late losses to Tulane, East Carolina, and Navy. Defensively, Memphis was solid but unspectacular (Defensive SP+ 71st), relying on field position, turnovers, and situational stops rather than pure down-to-down dominance. In total, this was a strong but slightly uneven season, one that confirmed Memphis as a reliable AAC contender without quite reaching the conference’s elite ceiling.
The Memphis Tigers Offense
Memphis’ offense was the driving force behind its 8–4 season, finishing 17th in Offensive SP+ (17th) while averaging 6.20 yards per play (30th) and 2.81 points per drive (29th). The Tigers were efficient and balanced, posting a strong success rate (45.6%, 35th) and ranking Top 25 in down-set conversion rate (77.0%, 25th) while staying ahead of the chains. Finishing drives was a major strength, as Memphis ranked Top 10 nationally in red-zone touchdown rate (75.0%, 7th) and goal-to-go TD rate (95.8%, 4th). While not a pure boom-or-bust unit, the offense paired consistent efficiency with timely explosiveness (6.6% of plays gaining 20+ yards, 56th), giving it one of the highest weekly floors in the AAC.
The Memphis Tigers Defense
Memphis’ defense played a complementary, field-position-driven role, finishing 71st in Defensive SP+ (71st) while allowing 5.46 yards per play (58th) and 1.85 points per drive (46th). The Tigers were solid against the run, holding opponents to a 38.2% rushing success rate (27th) and leveraging strong tackle efficiency to limit yards after contact (2.54 YAC, 34th). Disruption came more from the back end than the front, with an overall Havoc rate of 18.2% (23rd) driven by an aggressive secondary rather than consistent sack production (4.7% sacks per dropback, 105th). That profile made Memphis difficult to grind down but vulnerable to sustained passing success, especially against upper-tier AAC offenses that could stay ahead of the chains.
NC State and Memphis team stats, betting trends
- NC State is 6-6 ATS this season
- Memphis is 8-4 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed 7 times in Memphis’ 12 games (7-5)
- The OVER has cashed 7 times in NC State’s 12 games (7-5)
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): CJ Bailey UNDER 8.5 Rushing Attempts
Rumors are swirling that NC State star sophomore QB CJ Bailey could be portal-bound after bowl season concludes. So far this season, Bailey barely cleared his 8.5 Rushing Attempts line just twice (9 ATT in each), with both instances coming against Notre Dame (5 sacks) and Virginia Tech (4 sacks) where enhanced pressure was the sole reason why those Overs hit. With Memphis’ lackluster pass rush sporting a dismal 4.7% sack rate (105th), I don’t see pressure being an issue. With Bailey looking to stay healthy in preparation for a hefty NIL-bag, I’m extremely bullish on Bailey’s Under 8.5 Rush Attempts line.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best Bets our model is projecting for the Gasparilla Bowl between Memphis and NC State
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Wolfpack of NC State -3.5.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 56.5.
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