College Football Bowl Season is upon us and boy we have had some snoozers to start! Well, at least scoring has picked up the past two days, and who knows, maybe we see an underdog cover in the first round of the College Football playoff on Friday or Saturday! Here are two of my favorite plays for Friday and Saturday, plus a pick for a Dec. 27 matchup between the LSU Tigers and Houston Cougars in Rhe Kinder’s Texas Bowl.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Ty Simpson O/U 237.5 Passing Yards
In the first meeting between Oklahoma and Alabama, Ty Simpson threw the second-most passing yards of his season at 326. That outing marked the second-most passes of any game, too (42). Despite that, Alabama lost by 23-21 and turned the ball over three times to the Sooners, gifting Oklahoma 17 of its 23 points.
The game plan will have to be different this time around, and I expect Oklahoma’s defense to do a better job of limiting big plays downfield against the Tide. Alabama had 11 pass plays of 10 or more yards and six of 20-plus against Oklahoma, which will not cut it. Alabama also shouldn’t feel as flustered to start this game as they did against Oklahoma going down 10-0 in the first quarter at home. I like the Under 237.5 passing yards at -114 odds for Simpson.
Pick: Ty Simpson Under 237.5 Passing Yards (1 unit)
Miami at Texas A&M: O/U 49.5
I smell a potential upset and a personal need for justification after Miami made the playoffs over Duke, Texas, Vanderbilt, and Notre Dame. I want to see the Hurricanes earn their spot, but will we?
Texas A&M has been a pesky group that can win by three scores, or come back to win being down three scores. The Aggies survived almost every challenge tossed their way, but they have been lucky enough to face teams down starting quarterbacks down the back stretch like LSU and Missouri.
Carson Beck will have a challenge with the Aggies’ defense, but the secondary is beatable and we saw that via multiple performances from guys like Taylen Green, CJ Carr, and DJ Lagway. Luckily, Beck has Malachi Toney, a dymamic weapon who can take the top of the defense, and the Hurricanes’ defense isn’t too shabby either with 17 or fewer points allowed in five of the last six games. I think Miami can win this game, so I will take the +3.5 points.
Pick: Miami +3.5 (1 unit)
LSU vs Houston (-3): O/U 41.5
LSU and Texas meet in The Kinder’s Texas Bowl, which should favor the Cougars. The best news Houston could have received besides the location of the bowl game was their starting quarterback Connor Weigmann is playing. Weigmann is a dymaniuc dual threat quarterback who can give LSU problems, especially if they have multiple opt outs on defense, which looks likely.
Houston is chasing a 10-win season, the first since 2015, while LSU could have ended the year with six straight losses if it wasn’t for a one-point win over Arkansas and three-point win against Western Kentucky. I like Houston on the ML (-138 / -142) and think it could be a comfortable win pending opt outs for the Tigers.
Pick: Houston ML (1 unit)
Season Record: 62-79-1 (44%) -10.68 units | -7.01 ROI%
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