The freight train that is the second-ranked Miami (FL) Hurricanes (5-0, 1-0 ACC) look to avoid the upset in front of their home crowd Friday night when they step on the gridiron against the Louisville Cardinals (4-1, 1-1 ACC).
Led by Heisman favorite Carson Beck, the Canes last week held off a late charge from then No. 18 Florida State to defeat them 28-22. The senior signal-caller completed 74.1% of his passes and threw for 241 yards and four touchdowns in Miami’s third game of the season against instate competition. Beck and the Hurricanes are averaging 428 yards of Total Offense each week while maintaining possession for six minutes more per game than their opponents. That number accounts for 10% of the game. Miami wears down their opponents.
The Louisville Cardinals suffered their first loss of the season last weekend at home to the Virginia Cavaliers, 30-27. Trailing by ten heading into the fourth quarter, the Cards rallied to force overtime but lost in the extra session to the now-ranked Cavs. Like the Hurricanes, Louisville can move the ball on offense averaging 36 points and 404 yards per game.
Lets dive into the matchup, look at each team on both sides of the ball, and ultimately see where we might find an advantage or two.
Game Details and How to watch Louisville at No. 2 Miami
- Date: Friday, October 16, 2025
- Time: 7PM Eastern
- Site: Hard Rock Stadium
- City: Miami Gardens, FL
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
Game Odds for Louisville at No. 2 Miami
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Louisville Cardinals (+340), Miami Hurricanes (-440)
- Spread: Miami -11.5 (-105)
- Total: 49.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Louisville Cardinals
Head Coach: Jeff Brohm
2025 Record: 4-1
Offense Ranking: 27
Defense Ranking: 27
Strength of Schedule: 63
Louisville has started the 2025 season 4–1 (1–1 ACC) with a Second-Order Win total of 4.3, suggesting their record accurately reflects their play quality. The Cardinals rank 26th overall in SP+ with balanced units on both sides of the ball—27th on offense and 27th on defense—and project to finish near 9–3 or 10–2 based on current win probabilities. Defensively they’ve been outstanding, ranking 7th nationally in success rate allowed and 6th in yards per drive, anchored by an elite 47.1% pressure rate (No. 1 nationally). Offensively, Jeff Brohm’s unit remains explosive but inconsistent on standard downs (90th in SD success rate), relying on chunk plays and red-zone execution (23rd in goal-to-go TD rate) to offset a struggling run game and penalty-heavy approach.
The Louisville Cardinals Offense
Louisville’s offense ranks 27th in SP+ and thrives on balance and explosiveness despite uneven down-to-down consistency. The Cardinals average 5.91 yards per play (56th) with a 43.6% success rate (65th), leaning on efficient quarterback play—67.2% completions (30th) and 8.5 adjusted net yards per attempt (68th)—to offset a modest ground game ranked 69th in rushing success rate. Up front the pass protection has been commendable with just a 1.6% pressure rate allowed (24th), though the unit’s 17.0% blown run block rate (132nd) underscores lingering run-blocking issues. Brohm’s attack skews heavily pass-first on standard downs (47.3% run rate, 124th nationally), preferring tempo and vertical rhythm passing over sustained rushing efficiency to generate points.
Louisville Player to Watch on Offense: WR Chris Bell
Wideout Chris Bell has emerged as Louisville’s most reliable perimeter threat, leading the team with 53 targets, 35 receptions, 502 yards, and 4 touchdowns through five games. He’s converting opportunities efficiently with a 66.0% catch rate, 9.5 yards-per-target average and 60.4% success rate, indicating consistent chain-moving production. Bell’s role is primarily outside (83% wide snap rate) where his 14.3 yards per catch and dirt-low 1.9% drop rate highlight both explosiveness and dependability. With 30% of his targets coming on deep routes, Bell gives Jeff Brohm’s offense a true vertical presence who can stretch the field while maintaining high efficiency in intermediate zones.
The Louisville Cardinals Defense
Louisville’s defense has been vital to its 4-1 start, ranking 27th in SP+ and excelling in both efficiency and havoc creation. The Cardinals’ D ranks 7th nationally in success rate allowed (32.8%) 15th in yards per play allowed (4.38) and generates disruption at an elite level with a 47.1% pressure rate (1st in FBS) and 21.5% overall havoc rate (7th). Their front seven has been dominant, boasting the nation’s 2nd-best defensive line havoc rate (11.1%) and holding opponents to just 4.1 yards per rush (31st), while the secondary limits explosive gains allowing only 33.1% passing success (13th). This unit consistently flips field position and stalls drives, ranking 6th in yards per drive allowed (21.1) and 21st in points per scoring opportunity, embodying a physical, assignment-sound identity under co-coordinators Mark Hagen and Ron English.
Louisville Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Clev Lubin
Edge rusher Clev Lubin has been Louisville’s most dynamic defensive playmaker, producing 9 havoc plays, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 4.0 sacks through five games. He leads the team with 17 total pressures and a strong 17.7% pressure rate, generating a first pressure on 15 snaps and disrupting offenses on nearly one-third of third downs (31.6%). Lubin’s 91.7% tackle rate and ability to finish plays in space make him both an effective edge setter and a dangerous closer off the perimeter. His blend of burst, technique, and relentless pursuit has made him the focal point of Louisville’s certifiably elite pass rush unit.
Miami Hurricanes
Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
2025 Record: 4-1
Offense Ranking: 6
Defense Ranking: 24
Strength of Schedule: 52
Miami has stormed out to a 5–0 start (1–0 ACC), ranking 15th nationally in SP+ with an Offensive rank of 6th and a Defensive rank of 24. The Hurricanes are winning with ruthless efficiency, ranking 13th in offensive success rate (51.3%), 11th defensively (34.0%), and outscoring opponents by an average of 21.4 points per game. OC Shannon Dawson’s attack is producing 6.35 yards per play (35th) with a 73.2% completion rate (3rd nationally) while protecting the quarterback behind an offensive line allowing pressures on just 1.6% of dropbacks (21st). Defensively, Corey Hetherman’s unit ranks 19th in EPA/play allowed, combining a Top 10 rush defense (3.7 YPC) with a 39.9% pressure rate (5th) to overwhelm opposing offenses and set the stage for an ACC Title run.
The Miami Hurricanes Offense
Miami’s offense ranks 6th nationally in SP+, thriving on elite efficiency and balance under coordinator Shannon Dawson. The Hurricanes boast a 51.3% success rate (13th) and an EPA/play of 0.21 (24th) while pairing a Top 10 passing success rate (51.5%) with a 50.0% rushing success rate (23rd) to form one of the ACC’s most complete attacks. Quarterback play has been outstanding, leading to a 73.2% completion rate (3rd nationally) and 10.5 adjusted net yards per attempt (30th), while the offensive line has allowed pressure on only 1.6% of dropbacks (21st). Though Miami plays at a slow tempo (29.4 seconds per snap, 117th), its 78.9% red-zone touchdown rate (9th) and 5.30 points per scoring opportunity (18th) make it one of the most sound and disciplined scoring units in the country.
Miami (FL) Player to Watch on Offense: WR Malachi Toney
True freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney has emerged as Miami’s most productive pass catcher, leading the team with 37 targets, 29 receptions, 375 yards, and 3 touchdowns. He’s been both efficient and reliable, posting a 78.4% catch rate, 12.9 yards per reception, and a strong 54.1% success rate while moving the chains on 62.1% of his catches. Toney works primarily out of the slot (83% of receptions) where his short-to-intermediate precision route running generates steady separation and minimizes mistakes (2.7% drop rate). With balanced usage across all route depths—43% short, 23% intermediate, 33% deep—Toney provides an explosive and consistent target from the slot in Miami’s high-efficiency passing game.
The Miami Hurricanes Defense
Miami’s defense ranks 24th in SP+ and has been a cornerstone of the Hurricanes’ undefeated start, allowing just 4.43 yards per play (17th nationally) and a 34.0% success rate (11th). The front seven has been dominant, giving up only 3.7 yards per rush (10th) while generating a 39.9% pressure rate (5th) and an 8.7% defensive line havoc rate (10th). Opponents struggle to sustain drives averaging only 1.21 points per drive (11th) and converting just 27.9% of third downs (11th). Coordinator Corey Hetherman’s group mixes zone-heavy coverage with relentless front-four pressure, producing Top 20 marks in EPA/play allowed (-0.11) and passing success rate defense (34.6%), making Miami one of the most fundamentally sound defenses in the ACC.
Miami (FL) Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Rueben Bain
Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. has been Miami’s most consistent performer up front, producing 31 tackles, 7 havoc plays, and 4.0 tackles for loss through five games. He’s added 2 sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception, showing his versatility as both a pass rusher and run defender with a 90.0% run involvement rate and a stellar 93.9% tackle efficiency. Bain’s 16.6% pressure rate on 145 pass-rush snaps and 18 first pressures illustrate his ability to consistently collapse the pocket and dictate protection schemes. Bain’s blend of power, technique, and relentless motor has made him the emotional and statistical cornerstone of Miami’s aggressive, Top 25 defense.
No. 2 Miami (FL) vs. Louisville team stats, betting trends
- Louisville is 1-4 against the spread this season
- Miami (FL) is 4-1 against the spread this season
- The OVER is 4-1 in Louisville’s last 5 road games
- Game Totals in Miami (FL) games have cashed the OVER twice in the Canes’ 5 games.
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): CharMar Brown UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards
Entering the season, starting RB Mark Fletcher was expected to share carries with Jordan Lyle, who has more of a slasher profile as opposed to Fletcher who thrives between the tackles. When Lyle was injured during the early portion of the season, CharMar Brown held down the secondary rushing duties and pretty much got what was blocked, averaging 3.9 YPC while posting 10+ yard runs on just 8.8% of his carries. With Lyle finally back in the mix last week in a 28-22 victory over FSU, Brown (8 carries, 19 yards) split snaps with Lyle (7 - 18) behind Fletcher (12 - 40). With Brown failing to clear his 38.5 Rushing Yards line in three of his last four games, and Lyle now siphoning rushing snaps against a Louisville D that ranks 17th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, I’m backing the Under 38.5 Rushing Yards line on CharMar Brown.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for Friday night’s game between Miami and Louisville:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Louisville Cardinals at +13.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 51.5.
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