Game Details and How to watch Oregon at Penn State
- Date: Saturday, September 27th, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Beaver Stadium
- City: University Park, PA
- TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
Game Odds for Oregon at Penn State
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Oregon Ducks (+145), Penn State Nittany Lions (-175)
- Spread: Penn State -3.5 (-108)
- Total: 51.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Lets dive into each team and find a few sweats for this blockbuster.
Oregon Ducks
Head Coach: Dan Lanning
2025 Record: 4-0
Offense Ranking: 1st
Defense Ranking: 5th
Strength of Schedule: 24th
The 2025 Oregon Ducks have opened the season with a dominant 4-0 start, outscoring opponents by an average of 41.5 points per game and leading the nation in SP+ overall ranking. Their offense ranks No. 1 in SP+ averaging 8.09 yards per play (7th), a 55.6% success rate (9th), and scoring 6.30 points per scoring opportunity (2nd) all while maintaining a 72.0% completion rate and allowing a pristine 1.0% pressure rate. Defensively, Oregon ranks 5th in SP+, holding opponents to just 4.05 yards per play (15th), a 35.0% success rate (32nd), and a minuscule 0.82 points per drive (11th), with elite red zone suppression (3.70 Pts/ScOpp). Though their strength of schedule thus far ranks just 117th, Oregon will face stiffer tests in conference play, including Top 10 matchups vs. Penn State, Indiana, and USC.
The Oregon Ducks Offense
Oregon’s offense has been the most efficient in the country through four games, ranking No. 1 in SP+ and averaging a blistering 8.09 yards per play (7th nationally). The Ducks are converting 55.6% of their plays into successful outcomes (9th), with elite red-zone finishing (6.30 Pts/Scoring Opp, 2nd) and third-down success (58.1%, 10th). Their offensive line has allowed pressure on just 1.0% of dropbacks (11th) and leads the nation in Havoc Rate Allowed (6.2%), giving QB Dante Moore ample time to post a 72.0% completion rate and 14.6 ANY/A (6th). Oregon complements its explosive passing game with a dominant ground attack (6.8 YPC, 11th; 0.41 EPA/rush, 2nd), creating a balanced and lethal offense that has shredded defenses regardless of down or distance.
Oregon Duck to Watch on Offense: QB Dante Moore
The transfer from UCLA has been outstanding under center for Oregon, completing 74.7% of his passes for 962 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just 1 interception through four starts. He’s been highly efficient, averaging 13.6 yards per completion and 9.8 yards per dropback, with a strong adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) of 11.9 and a QBR of 83.7. Moore has demonstrated composure in the pocket, taking a sack on just 1.0% of dropbacks despite a pressure rate of 6.3%. As a runner, he’s added 87 yards on 13 carries (6.69 YPC) with a 61.5% success rate, showing dual-threat capability that complements Oregon’s high-powered offense.
The Oregon Ducks Defense
Oregon’s defense has been one of the most efficient units in the country, ranking 5th in SP+ and allowing just 4.05 yards per play (15th) and 0.82 points per drive (11th). The Ducks excel on early downs with a 36.6% standard-down success rate allowed (12th) and a -0.46 marginal explosiveness figure (3rd), forcing opponents into long third-down situations—of which they convert just 27.5% overall. The pass defense is particularly disruptive, ranking 7th in completion rate allowed (51.1%) and 11th in ANY/A (4.2), while allowing just 3.7 yards per dropback against man coverage (28th nationally). While the defensive line has posted a low Havoc Rate (1.8%, 126th), Oregon compensates with elite linebacker play (8.4% LB Havoc, 6th) and a disciplined secondary that ranks top 15 in tackling success, PD-to-INC rate, and coverage versatility.
Oregon Duck to Watch on Defense: Edge Matayo Uiagalelei
The defensive end has emerged as a premier edge presence, recording 6 tackles with 5 solo stops and 3 tackles for loss, all of which were sacks. He leads the defense with 11 total pressures on 52 pass-rush attempts, generating a pressure rate of 21.2% and being credited with 10 first pressures—demonstrating his consistency in winning early in reps. Uiagalelei has been a problem behind the line, generating 4 havoc plays and forcing hurried throws without sacrificing discipline—registering a perfect 100% tackle rate. With a team-best 2.70-second average time to first pressure and a 19% third-down pressure rate, he’s anchoring Oregon’s pass rush and drawing significant attention from opposing offenses.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Head Coach: James Franklin
2025 Record: 3-0
Offense Ranking: 9th
Defense Ranking: 4th
Strength of Schedule: 23rd
Through the first four weeks of the 2025 season, Penn State has dominated inferior opponents with elite efficiency and havoc generation. Offensively, the Nittany Lions rank top-20 in rushing and passing success rates, average 6.4 yards per play (41st), and have scored on 3.68 points per drive (14th) while avoiding negative plays with just a 1.1% pressure rate allowed (14th nationally). Defensively, Penn State boasts the No. 4 SP+ defense behind a disruptive front that ranks 2nd in defensive line havoc rate (15.0%), 9th in pressure rate (41.2%), and 2nd nationally in adjusted net yards per attempt allowed (3.1 ANY/A). Despite a weak early strength of schedule (135th), Penn State ranks 2nd in SP+ overall, with an average scoring margin of +38.3 and a projected win total nearing 11.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Offense
Penn State’s offense has operated with ruthless efficiency through four weeks, ranking Top 20 nationally in rushing (55.9%) and passing (49.1%) success rates, while converting an elite 80% of its down sets (24th). The offensive line has been nearly impenetrable, allowing just a 1.1% pressure rate (14th) and boasting the nation’s second-lowest stuff rate (9.8%) on running plays. While explosive plays have been limited — ranking 103rd in marginal explosiveness — the Nittany Lions are consistently efficient, averaging 6.43 yards per play (41st) and 3.68 points per drive (14th). New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has leveraged balance (53.6% standard down run rate) and clean execution (26.7 penalty yards/game, 7th) to keep the chains moving and finish drives at a solid, but unspectacular, clip (4.81 points per scoring opportunity, 56th).
Penn State Nittany Lion to Watch on Offense: QB Drew Allar
Through three starts, the senior signal-caller has thrown for 626 yards and 4 touchdowns to 1 interception, completing 64.8% of his passes at an average of 11.0 yards per completion. His passing success rate sits at 48.5%, and he’s averaged 7.4 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) with a Total QBR of just 38.8, suggesting inconsistencies in high-leverage or situational efficiency. Despite taking sacks on just 3.3% of dropbacks, pressures convert into sacks at a 21.4% rate, indicating room for improvement in pocket navigation under duress. On the ground, Allar has added 40 yards on 7 carries (5.71 YPC) with a 57.1% rushing success rate, showing effective but limited mobility as a complementary asset to his passing.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Defense
Penn State’s defense has been suffocating to open the 2025 season, ranking Top 5 nationally in SP+ (4th) while holding opponents to just 3.59 yards per play (2nd) and 0.47 points per drive (2nd). The unit thrives on disruption, posting the 4th-highest overall havoc rate (26.7%) and 2nd-ranked defensive line havoc rate (15.0%), while allowing only 28.9% passing success (10th) and 37.1% rushing success (49th). Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ aggressive scheme has produced a 9.3% sack rate (11th) and forced 7 takeaways (13th) with a +6 turnover margin, the 4th-best in the country. While not overly reliant on blitzes (25.8%, 71st), the Nittany Lions are locking down in coverage—allowing just 3.1 adjusted net yards per attempt (3rd)—and play a stifling zone that allows a mere 2.9 yards per dropback (2nd).
Penn State Nittany Lion to Watch on Defense: OLB Chaz Coleman
The linebacker has been a beast for Penn State’s defense through three games, racking up 8 total tackles (all solo) with an impressive 87.5% run tackle rate. He leads the team in havoc plays (8.0), thanks to 6.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 1 pass breakup, and a forced fumble with a recovery. As a pass rusher, Coleman has generated 8 pressures on 28 rushes for a 28.6% pressure rate, including 4 sacks created and 1st pressure on all 8 of those plays. His 2.18-second average to first pressure and 27.3% third-down pressure rate highlight his ability to consistently collapse the pocket when it matters most.
Oregon Ducks at Penn State Nittany Lions team stats, betting trends
- Penn State has won 10 of its last 12 at home
- Penn State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 as a home favorite
- The Over is 13-7 in Oregon’s and Penn State’s last 10 games combined
Rotoworld Bet Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Nicholas Singleton OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards
Oregon is currently sporting a lackluster 1.8% defensive line havoc rate despite playing a row of tomato cans to this point. Penn State’s OL is paving the way for a 55.9% rushing success rate with the second lowest stuff rate in FBS. The path to victory for Penn State is to control the line of scrimmage and pound the Ducks on the ground with their exceptional backfield tandem. Last season Nicholas Singleton ripped the Ducks for 105 rushing yards but is saddled with an extremely reasonable line of 56.5 Rushing Yards that I think he goes Over.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): 1Q Under 10.5 (-115) Total Points
Penn State’s three games have all featured 10 or fewer points in the first quarter and not one opponent has scored in the first 15 minutes, but of course, Nevada, FIU, and Villanova shouldn’t score in the first quarter at Happy Valley. Oregon is 3-1 to the Over 10.5 1Q points with the lone Under being at Northwestern in the only road and conference game of the season so far.
Oregon enters with one of the best offenses in the country and holding them off the board will require lengthy drives and pinning the Ducks deep in their own territory. Coming off a bye week, PSU’s defense should be ready for Oregon, and let’s hope there isn’t too much trickery to get an early score on the board. I like the Under 10.5 points in the first quarter.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Ducks and Nittany Lions:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Oregon Ducks at +3.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 52.5.
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