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Ohio State vs Texas Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The game of the week is #1 Ohio State (1-0) at #4 Texas (1-0) on Saturday night! Last year, we have a slugfest in Columbus where the Buckeyes won 14-7. If you looked at the box score of that matchup, you would haven’t thought Ohio State was the winner. Nonetheless after a noon kickoff last year, we have a night game in Austin that will shape the trajectory of these teams seasons.

Ohio State enters as the top-ranked team in the country. The Buckeyes have the deepest wide receiver room in the country, which was on display in the season-opening 56-3 win over Ball State. Jeremiah Smith, Devin McCuin, Legend Bey, and Chris Henry Jr. all scored to combine for five touchdowns. Julian Sayin tossed three of those scores, but last year at Ohio State, Sayin threw for a season-low 126 yards and one touchdown. All eyes will be on the Buckeyes’ offense and its big play ability.

Texas’ receiving room was on display in the 59-7 win over Texas State. Cam Coleman caught two touchdowns, Ryan Wingo added another and 121 yards, plus Emmett Mosley IV had 37 yards on three receptions from Arch Manning — RB Hollywood Smothers added score through the air. The Longhorns defense had a 59-yard fumble return for a touchdown, but showed some gaps giving up 349 yards and eight third-down conversions to Texas State. The game total for this matchup is 49.5 points after only 21 points last season, so oddsmakers are expecting more offense this time around.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Ohio State vs Texas

  • Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM Eastern
  • Site: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
  • City: Austin, TX
  • TV/Streaming: ABC | ESPN+

Game Odds for Ohio State vs Texas

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Texas Longhorns (-118), Ohio State Buckeyes (-102)
  • Spread: Texas -1.5 (-110)
  • Total: 49.5 points

Texas Longhorns

Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian
2026 Record: 1-0 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 59 (T-3rd)
Defensive Points Per Game: 7 (T-9th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 72nd

The Texas Longhorns Offense:

The Texas offense was all gas and no brakes against Texas State in the season opener. The Longhorns put up 59 points scoring at least 10 points in every quarter. Texas compiled 516 total yards with Arch Manning throwing for 305 of that. Manning tossed four touchdowns and the running back committee scored three on the ground and combined for 4.3 yards per carry. Last year against Ohio State, Texas had more first downs (16-11) and total yards (336-203) than Ohio State, but struggled in the red zone with multiple failed fourth down conversations (Texas was 1/5 on fourth downs).

Texas Player to Watch on Offense: QB Arch Manning

Last year at Ohio State, Arch Manning threw for 170 yards on 17-of-30, one touchdown, one interception, and added 38 yards on 10 carries. It was one of his worst performances of the season. In his career, Manning is 0-5 against Georgia and Ohio State, 0-2 in starts. Manning not being able to win the big games has been a talking point of his Longhorns career. However, he did look good in the opener despite missing some of the spring. Manning tossed four touchdowns against Texas State with 305 yards and an interception on 20-of-27 (74.1%).

The Texas Longhorns Defense:

While the offense looked in midseason form during Week 1, the defense had some issues. The Longhorns allowed 349 yards of offense, 18 first downs, and 8-out-14 third downs were converted by Texas State. The Bobcats were able to move the ball, but putting up points was a different story. Texas held Ohio State to 203 total yards last season, 2.3 yards per carry and held the Buckeyes to 4-out-14 on third and fourth downs.

Texas Player to Watch on Defense: EDGE Colin Simmons

Colin Simmons is projected to be a first pick and even top 10 by some experts. Simmons had a tackle and fumble recovery in the season opener, so he’s still searching for his first sack of 2026. Simmons had nine sacks as a freshman, 12 as a sophomore and three forced fumbles in each season. Simmons is a game-wrecker and will be double-teamed often Saturday night.

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Ohio State Buckeyes

Head Coach: Ryan Day
2026 Record: 1-0 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 56 (6th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 3 (6th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 100th

The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense:

The Buckeyes offense had little issues with Ball State. Ohio State turned in 671 yards of total offense with 434 through the air, 237 on the ground with seven different players scoring eight touchdowns. Julian Sayin threw three touchdowns and ran another in, while Jeremiah Smith caught two scores. The offense converted both fourth down attempts and went 5-for-11 on third downs. Ohio State was penalized nine times for 81 yards, which will need cleaned up for the upcoming visit to Texas.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Offense: WR Jeremiah Smith

Jeremiah Smith was a monster in his 2026 debut. Smith caught eight passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns. The 151 yards was the fourth-most in his career (153, 157, 187). The performance also marked the seventh time he’s caught at least eight passes out of 30 career games and ninth time he’s scored two touchdowns. Smith has played Texas twice in his career, in 2024 and 2025. Smith caught six passes for 43 yards in last season’s 14-7 win over Texas, and recorded one catch for three yards in Playoff Quarterfinal in 2024. The Longhorns have found ways to shut him down both times, let’s see if a third time is a charm for Smith.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Defense:

As expected, Ohio State’s defense was dominant against Ball State. The Buckeyes left little room for error with 165 yards allowed, 45 rushing yards on 23 carries, seven tackles for a loss, and six pass deflections. Ohio State had 32 first downs to Ball State’s 14, and the defense held the Cardinals 3-of-15 on third and fourth downs. last season, Ohio State held Texas to 1-of-5 on fourth downs and made multiple red zone stops, which determined the outcome of the game. That was at home. Let’s see if the defense will travel in 2026.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Defense: DL Kenyatta Jackson Jr.

Despite not recoding a single stat in the season opener versus Ball State, Kenyetta Jackson Jr. is projected to be a second or third round pick by many. Jackson recorded 6.5 sacks last season with Ohio State, tied second on the team with 2026 1st-round pick Arvell Reese. Jackson had three tackles last year versus Texas, but is on the rise per team officials.

Texas and Ohio State Team Stats, Betting Trends

  • Ohio State and Texas are 1-0 ATS and 1-0 to the Over
  • Last year, the Under hit and Ohio State covered the spread vs Texas
  • Ohio State was 10-3-1 ATS last season, ranking tied for second-best
  • Texas was 5-7-1 ATS last season
  • Ohio State was 10-4 to the Under last season, ranking tied for fifth
  • Texas was 7-6 to the Under last season
  • Ohio State is 3-3 ATS as an underdog since 2018 and 5-1 to the Over
  • Ohio State is 5-0 to the Over in the last five games as an underdog

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes Jeremiah Smith to find the end zone and leans Buckeyes +1.5:

“Ohio State and Texas is the headliner of the season until Miami and Notre Dame play. There are so many implications in this matchup, ranking from No. 1 in the poll, favorite to win the Natty, drivers seat to a No. 1 seed, and Heisman hopefuls bolstering their case. As far as talent, narratives, and coaching, I like Ohio State in the matchup. The Buckeyes have proved they can win the big games, whereas Texas is 0-5 versus Georgia and Ohio State over the past three seasons.

My best bet though is a player prop. In 12 career non-conference games, Jeremiah Smith has scored a touchdown in 10 of those games. The two he didn’t? Well, Texas, and Texas, again. I don’t think the Longhorns hold Smith out of the end zone three-straight games. That would be unheard of. Give me Smith to score a touchdown at -115 and -125 odds. Some oddsmakers have him at -185!”

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Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)