If the Big Ten has hopes of getting four teams into the College Football Playoff Playoffs, then #20 Oregon (2-1) at #12 USC (4-0) has to be an electric game that comes down to the wire. After the Ducks lost at Oklahoma State as -22.5 point favorites (39-31), Oregon destroyed Portland State 84-0 in what felt more like a seven-on-seven or high school scrimmage for the Ducks offense. USC outlasted Rutgers 42-35 in the Trojans first road game of the season and now fly back across the country for a game that could make or break the year.
The Ducks have moved from a +1.5 point underdog to a -3 favorite for Saturday’s matchup. Oregon’s won the last four meetings versus USC and this matchup could be the toughest in that stretch. Oregon played arguably the toughest two-game stretch for a P4 team to start the season (Boise State, Oklahoma State), while USC played four teams that are a combined 6-7 on the season. After only posting 281 total yards of offense against Oklahoma State, Oregon recorded 726 yards against Portland State. Last year, USC won 42-27 and put up 436 yards of offense.
The USC offense has been a tank this season with four-straight games of at least 39 points, including 42 against Rutgers last week (42-35 win). USC ranks 10th in passing efficiency, 9th in passing yards per game (340.7), and 23rd in yards per game (5113.3). On third downs, USC ranks second in the nation with a 69.4 third-down conversion rate. Jayden Maiava is in the Heisman conversation as a long shot, but with a big game and win against Oregon, you better believe Maiava becomes a front runner.
Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.
Game Details and How to Watch Oregon vs USC
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM Eastern
- Site: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- City: Los Angeles, CA
- TV/Streaming: NBC | Peacock
Game Odds for Oregon vs USC
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Oregon Ducks (-166), USC Trojans (+140)
- Spread: Oregon -3 (-108)
- Total: 62.5 points
#20 Oregon Ducks
Head Coach: Dan Lanning
2026 Record: 2-1 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 49.7 (15th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 22.0 (T-76th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 67th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 25th
The Oregon Ducks Offense:
Oregon had 12 drives against Portland State and scored a touchdown on 11 of them with a punt coming on the lone non-touchdown drive. The Ducks wanted to sharpen their iron ahead of USC. Dante Moore struggled with 191 passing yards at Oklahoma State and the run game struggled with 3.0 ypc and 90 yards over 30 carries. The Ducks went 0-for-6 on fourth downs against Boise State and Oklahoma State, which will be something to watch for at USC.
Oregon Player to Watch on Offense: QB Dante Moore
Dante Moore has a perfect 9 to 0 TD to INT ratio this season and completed 68.5% of his passes. However, Moore struggled at Oklahoma State going 14-of-29 (48.3%) for 191 yards and two touchdowns. He was also sacked four times. Last season, Moore was only sacked twice all year on the road and had a 9:3 TD to INT ratio along with a 72.1 completion percentage, so clearly being on the road isn’t a problem. I’d expect a big game out of Moore. Last season, he tossed two touchdowns, one interception, and 257 yards on 22-of-30 passing against USC.
The Oregon Ducks Defense:
Last season, Oregon’s defense earned one shutout and that came in the College Football Playoff against Texas Tech. The Ducks already have one this year! All jokes aside, Oregon pummeled Portland State, 84-0 and the Ducks defense didn’t take a rep off ranging from the starters to the third-stringers. Oregon nabbed two interceptions against USC last year, but only one sack. The Ducks didn’t get to Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker at all in Week 2, but sacked Boise State’s Maddux Madsen three times in Week 1.
Oregon Player to Watch on Defense: EDGE Matayo Uiagalelei
Despite not recording a single stat against Portland State, you can bet your bottom dollar Matayo Uiagalelei will make a difference on the field versus USC. The 6-foot-5 265 lbs senior rusher had eight tackles and a sack against Boise State, then an interceptions at Oklahoma State the following week. Last year, Uiagalelei had six sacks, which was down from 10.5 as a sophomore. Uiagalelei had seven tackles, one sack, and one forced fumble against USC.
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#14 USC Trojans
Head Coach: Lincoln Riley
2026 Record: 4-0 (1-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 43.3 (30th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 18.6 (61st)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 108th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 9th
The USC Trojans Offense:
The USC offense has been a tank to start the season. With 39 or more points in all four games and Jayden Maiava leading the country in passing yards (1,173) and touchdowns (12). King Miller has back-to-back games of at least 100-plus rushing yards and a touchdown. Trent Mosley has been an awesome addition as a true freshman. Mosley has caught 13 passes for 255 yards and four touchdowns, plus returned a punt 86 yards for a score. USC has six different players who have caught a touchdown pass and six different rushers who have ran for a score. This offense is dynamic and can hit you all over.
USC Player to Watch on Offense: QB Jayden Maiava
After throwing a career-high five touchdowns against Louisiana, Maiava tossed two scores and 277 yards on 20-of-32 passing (62.5%). The game marked Maiva’s lowest completion percentage on the early season and fewest total touchdowns, which makes sense. Last year, Maiava’s road numbers dipped starting with his completion percentage going from 74.2% at home to 57.5% on the road and his TD to INT ratio as well (16:2 vs 7:6). Luckily, Maiava is at home versus Oregon. Maiava threw for three touchdowns, two interceptions, and 306 yards on 25-of-43 at Oregon last season.
The USC Trojans Defense:
The USC defense has shown some holes through four games, especially in the second half of games. The Trojans allowed 26 second-half points to San Jose State, 20 to Louisiana, and 21 to Rutgers. If Oregon comes out swinging in the second half, USC could be in trouble. Rutgers posted 460 yards on USC, had 27 first downs, and converted 3-of-4 fourth downs. The Trojans did get two of their three interceptions on the season last week, but couldn’t get any pressure with one sack.
USC Player to Watch on Defense: CB Prophet Brown
Prophet Brown is projected as a late draft pick to an undrafted guy, but he could sure help his case against Oregon this weekend. Brown has been at USC for six years (since 2021) and has 40 career tackles, and two interceptions, which both have come this year. Brown ran a pick-six back on Rutgers 99 yards and also grabbed an his first career interception against Fresno State. Oregon has a deep wide receiver room, so Brown will have plenty of film after this game.
USC and Oregon Stats, Betting Trends
- USC is 1-3 ATS and 3-1 to the Over
- Oregon is 1-2 ATS and 3-0 to the Over
- USC is 1-2 ATS at home and 2-1 to the Over
- Oregon is 0-1 ATS and 1-0 to the Over on the road
- USC has only been a home underdog five times since 2021 and went 2-3 ATS and 5-0 to the Over
- Oregon is 6-4 to the Under in the last 10 games as a road favorite
- Oregon is 5-5 ATS in the last 10 games as a road favorite
- Oregon is 9-1 on the ML in the last 10 games as a road favorite
- USC was 5-8 ATS in 2025
- Oregon was 9-6 ATS in 2025
- USC was 7-6 to the Over in 2025
- Oregon was 8-7 to the Over in 2025
Rotoworld Best Bets
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Over 62.5 in Oregon at USC:
“The Over is 5-0 in the last five games as a home underdog for USC and Oregon is 9-1 in the last 10 as a road favorite, so I agree with the line movement towards Oregon to win and the game to go Over the total.
Both offenses are explosive and in the series, we’ve seen points galore. It’s hard not seeing Dante Moore and Jayden Maiava light it up in a game where both offenses likely push the tempo and act aggressive on fourth downs. The loser of this game is on the outside looking in and likely out of the college football playoff as a result. I like the Over 62.5 and lean Oregon ML.”
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