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A day which began with Patrick Cantlay atop the leaderboard ended with two longshots occupying the top spot as Lee Hodges and Paul Barjon will head into the final round of The American Express tied for the lead at 18-under. Playing in their rookie seasons, the two have been next to each other every step of the way and will be once again tomorrow in the final group at PGA West.
Both spoke to the comfort level they have with each other as Hodges said, “Me and Paul are really good friends...I played with Paul in the final group when I won my first Korn Ferry event and we played, I don’t know, 15 times together in professional golf and we play practice rounds about every day.”
Barjon said much of the same, adding, “We played on the Korn Ferry together and we ended up playing well as well a couple years ago, so I don’t know. We’re good buddies and I like watching his game and I guess he likes watching mine as well, but, no, we just kind of feed off each other, so it’s been fun.”
Despite getting to the same 54-hole total, the Alabama product and the Frenchman have taken two different paths to the top. Hodges, as you may remember, was the co-leader alongside Cantlay after the first-round as he fired a 10-under 62 at La Quinita Country Club.
Always difficult to follow up a great round with another, the 26-year-old signed for an even-par 72 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course in Round 2. Bouncing back in a big way, Hodges carded an 8-under 64 on the Stadium Course courtesy of a well-rounded effort. Leading the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in Round 3, Hodges ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in SG: Approach, and 11th in SG: Around-the-Green, all while finishing inside the top-5 in SG: Putting.
As for Barjon, he has remained steady throughout, posting rounds of 66-67-65 the first three days. While the ball-striking was equal to that of Hodges’, the 29-year-old’s around-the-green game fell flat in Round 3 and may be something to keep an eye in the final round.
Along with Hodges and Barjon, there are a number of players – rookies and veterans alike – looking to breakthrough for the first time on the PGA Tour. With 13 players listed at or below +2200, it is safe to say our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook believe it is still anyone’s tournament to win.
Unfortunately, our Round 3 addition of Sungjae Im did nothing to help the cause as the ball-striking abandoned him at La Quinta CC. Fortunately, pre-tournament selection Hudson Swafford finished fast and played himself back into the tournament. Sitting only three-strokes off the lead, we will stick with the Georgia Bulldog and hope for a good roll of the dice in what is sure to be a crapshoot of a final round.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+400: Lee Hodges
+450: Paul Barjon
+600: Seamus Power, Tom Hoge
+1400: Patrick Cantlay
+1600: Harold Varner III
+1800: Jon Rahm, Lanto Griffin
+2000: Hudson Swafford, Will Zalatoris
+2200: Cameron Young, Francesco Molinari, Harry Higgs
+4500: Denny McCarthy
+6600: Sahith Theegala
+10000: Davis Riley, Wyndham Clark
Round 4 Plays:
Charles Howell III +110 over Si Woo Kim at DraftKings (1.00 unit):
There is always some uneasiness siding against Kim on a Pete Dye design, especially one where he has won, but I keep coming back to Howell. Having gone to him in this spot at the Sony Open, we will look for him to finish strong once again as his game appears to be very close.
Outside of Round 2 at La Quinta CC, the irons have cooperated for the former Oklahoma State Cowboy. Connecting on 13-of-18 greens in regulation in Round 1 and 15-of-18 today at the Nicklaus Tournament Course, this should bode well given the effectiveness in which he has been driving the ball. Combine this with a strong around-the-green presence and the 42-year-old should enjoy a nice Sunday if the putter is cooperative.
Which has been the case for the defending champion Kim. Top-3 in putts per green in regulation, the South Korean posted positive strokes-gained metrics in each category at the Stadium Course on Saturday.
I am not sure how long this will last as Kim has struggled with his iron-play to begin the year and is about as volatile as they come on the greens. With such a wide range of outcomes possible for Kim, I feel more comfortable with the steady Howell on Sunday.
2/3-Balls YTD: +0.20 units, +2.15%
Overall YTD: +25.79 units, +141.56%
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