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Back to the continental United States we go as primetime golf is slowly but surely coming to an end for us east coasters. What was formerly known as the Bob Hope Classic has been transformed into The American Express in recent years as professionals and amateurs alike will take their silverware to the three-course meal in La Quinta, California.
Typically an appetizer for the weekend, La Quinta Country Club was taken off the menu last year as it had just wrapped up hosting the most dramatic season ever of “The Bachelorette.” In actuality it was due to COVID-19, but it will be rejoining the cast of the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the Stadium Course at PGA West for the 50th time.
La Quinta CC was not the only thing left on the sidelines as amateurs not named Landon Donovan and Jake Owen were unable to participate in order to limit the tournament footprint. Tournament host and two-time Bob Hope Classic Champion, Phil Mickelson (+10000), will welcome them back with open arms as they will play 54-holes before the top-65 professionals take to the Stadium Course for a second time on Sunday.
While all three courses are similar on paper – par-72s measuring just about 7,100 yards – last season’s tournament saw an uptick in the importance of scrambling and around-the-green play. Not historically the case, this can likely be chalked up to players seeing the Stadium Course one additional time.
So, it is no surprise Si Woo Kim (+5000) was victorious by week’s end as the South Korean has made his living dismantling Pete Dye designs. A winner at TPC Sawgrass and a runner-up at Harbour Town, Kim added the Stadium Course to his collection of conquests and will look to become the first successful defender since Johnny Miller in the 1970’s.
He will have his work cut out for him as world No. 1 Jon Rahm (+550) headlines the odds board at PointsBet Sportsbook. The winner in 2018, Rahm showed no signs of rust in his runner-up performance two weeks ago at the Tournament of Champions. Neither did last year’s runner-up Patrick Cantlay (+850) who fell one-stroke short of Kim after a record-setting Sunday saw him card an 11-under 61.
Those two present the most danger to our typical way of thinking as they are leaps and bounds above the rest of the field. Scottie Scheffler (+1800), Tony Finau (+2000), Sungjae Im (+2000), Corey Conners (+2200), Abraham Ancer (+2800), and Talor Gooch (+2800) round out those listed below +3000, but are a touch too short according to my numbers.
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I suspect Matthew Wolff (+3000) will be a popular starting point for some, yet instead, we will take a deep breath, plug our nose, and begin our selections much farther down with Rickie Fowler (+7000). Perhaps giving too much respect to the two-headed monster at the top, this range on the odds board is a no man’s land featuring players such as Will Zalatoris (+4000) and Cameron Tringale (+4000).
Never for the faint of heart, the status of the new father’s game is a bit unknown, however if it is anything like it was the last seven months of 2021, there is some potential in this number. Collecting an eighth-place finish at the PGA Championship and 11th-place finish at The Memorial, Fowler was very much in the mix at the 3M Open in late July before playing his final six holes on Saturday in 5-over.
Stumbling out of the gates of the 2021-22 season by missing the cut at the Shriners Children’s Open, Fowler opened THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT the very next week with rounds of 66-66-63 to command the 54-hole lead. Surrendering the winner’s circle to Rory McIlroy, Fowler eventually finished in a tie for third, ranking first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Off-the-Tee for the week. Unable to get his putter to cooperate, Fowler rounded out his year with a mediocre effort in Japan before a top-40 finish in Mexico.
Known to play desert golf exceptionally well, Fowler has a stellar record at TPC Scottsdale, boasting not only a victory, but two runners-up and three additional top-15 results. Combine this with enviable outings at TPC Sawgrass – a Pete Dye design – and Fowler’s steady acclimation to PGA West should not be surprising.
Making his fifth career appearance, this will be the third consecutive year the 33-year-old travels to Palm Springs. Finishing in a tie for 10th in 2020 and a tie for 21st in 2021, Fowler understands a strong showing this week would kickstart his 2022. Surely keeping one eye on the Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow in September – the sight of Fowler’s first career victory on the PGA Tour – I am expecting a motivated Fowler from the go.
I stared and stared and stared at Luke List’s (+6000) name, but could not get there with the tee-to-green savant. Hopefully not regretting this decision by Sunday evening, I opted for Jhonattan Vegas (+8000) given the consistency in which he contended in 2021.
Three runner-up efforts at the Puerto Rico Open, Palmetto Championship, and 3M Open displayed his game is amongst the best when the field lacks a bit of star power. He confirmed this sentiment with a nice showing at the HPE Houston Open where he finished in a tie for 26th after entering the final round one-stroke off the pace and at the RSM Classic where he finished in a tie for 12th in his last start of 2021.
Now more than a decade removed from his victory at PGA West, Vegas arrives with some of the best tee-to-green numbers of his career. One of the strongest drivers of the golf ball in the field, if he can find some touch on the greens, he should be in good shape. Having gained strokes on the field with the flat stick in seven of his 10 appearances here, it is a risk I will happily take.
We have seen poor putters like Jason Dufner (+25000) come through at PGA West in the past and someone fitting a similar profile is Russell Knox (+10000). Seeing three different green complexes may have something to do with this as it has the potential to level the field and should help the Scotsman’s cause as he is certainly known to struggle with the flat stick in hand.
However, the rest of his game appears tailor-made for the test this week as Knox found the top-10 at Waialae Country Club, ranking first in Greens in Regulation, seventh in Driving Accuracy, eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 10th in SG: Approach. Gaining strokes in each statistical category, it marked the first time since 2020 in which he was able to accomplish such a feat.
Possessing a strong background on Pete Dye designs, the 36-year-old has a victory at TPC River Highlands and runner-up result at Harbour Town to his name. Toss in his affinity for desert golf – three top-16s at TPC Scottsdale and two top-15s at TPC Summerlin – and Knox, like Fowler, is experiencing a steady climb to success at PGA West.
Making his eighth career appearance this week, Knox has collected a paycheck four years in a row, capturing top-20 results on two occurrences. Tied for fourth in birdies or better the last three years at The American Express per Justin Ray, if able to avoid the mental lapses on the greens, there is plenty of upside to Knox’s game.
There is typically a bit of discrepancy once we get into this range, so it’s always important to look around. While I believe PointsBet and most of their competitors have the number right on this player, there is value in Taylor Moore‘s (+12000) price at FanDuel.
Moore is a player I will be betting on a ton this year as I believe he has serious Rookie of the Year potential. First getting a taste for his game at the RSM Classic, Moore validated this hunch by collecting a top-10 in Sea Island. His best finish to date on the PGA Tour, this result was the latest in a strong swing season which included a tie for 17th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and a tie for 24th at the Shriners Children’s Open.
About as well-rounded as they come, just a slight improvement with the irons could lead to yet another contention run. While it was a slow climb to the PGA Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour, the 28-year-old is healthy and has clearly become a different player since the beginning of 2021 and should hopefully continue this stretch of play into 2022.
One of the handful of players scheduled to appear in his third event of the new year this week is K.H. Lee (+13000) who has now made five consecutive weekend appearances dating back to 2021. While two of those tournaments may or may not have been no-cut events, the South Korean is becoming more and more consistent by the week.
A winner this past spring at the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch, Lee hit a bit of a lull at the end of May and into June. However, since then the tee-to-green play has been terrific, posting +10.9 SG: Tee-to-Green at Sedgefield Country Club, +4.4 SG: Tee-to-Green at Caves Valley, +5.9 SG: Tee-to-Green at TPC Summerlin, and +3.4 SG: Tee-to-Green last week at Waialae CC.
With some past success in the desert golf setting – a runner-up effort at the 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open – PGA West could be a good spot for the sexiest golfer alive. Posting finishes of T-21 and T-32 in his last two appearances here, Lee has been successful on the greens of the Stadium Course before and if able to be once again, the rest of his game should answer the call.
We will round out our plays with one more past champion and while Andrew Landry (+10000) and Bill Haas (+50000) were considered, Hudson Swafford (+25000) is ultimately the man we will go with. We went to war with the former Georgia Bulldog plenty of times during the swing season to no avail, but this price is too long given most places have him in the 150-to-200 range.
Finishing in a tie for 48th at the Sony Open, it was a standard week for Swafford, gaining strokes off-the-tee and on approach, only to give them back around-the-green. This marked the 14th consecutive start in which the 34-year-old has done such, last gaining strokes in this department at the Palmetto Championship where he finished runner-up.
He has proven to be capable of competing without this part of his game cooperating, so I am not putting out too much hope. This is more so a wager on his ball-striking and the potential to find a nice comfort level on the greens which he has done so before at PGA West.
Outright Selections:
Rickie Fowler +7000 at BetRivers (0.47 units)
Jhonattan Vegas +8000 at DraftKings (0.41 units)
Russell Knox +10000 at DraftKings (0.33 units)
Taylor Moore +12000 at FanDuel (0.28 units)
K.H. Lee +13000 at DraftKings (0.25 units)
Hudson Swafford +25000 at DraftKings (0.13 units)
Outrights YTD: +28.54 units, 478.48%
Total YTD: +27.79 units, 171.36%
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