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Another week and another tournament filled with birdies as the American Express got underway on Thursday. Playing three different courses, as predicted those on the Stadium Course at PGA West were dealt the most difficult conditions as the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club played nearly three-strokes under-par. Playing to an average of 71.22, the Stadium Course did not stop everyone in their tracks as K.H. Lee (-8), Sam Ryder (-7), Joseph Bramlett (-7), Roger Sloan (-6), and Martin Trainer (-6) were all able to put together a nice day of work on the Pete Dye design.
Originally having the plan to target a player who had gotten off to a fast start on the Stadium Course, the two-headed monster at the top has made me rethink such a strategy. Jon Rahm did not skip a beat after his disappointing runner-up finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Carding a bogey-free 6-under 66 at La Quinta CC, I am in no mood to get in front of the freight train that is the world No. 1.
And then there is Patrick Cantlay who was the story of the afternoon in the California desert. No disrespect to Lee Hodges, who signed for a 10-under 62, but for a moment it appeared the former UCLA Bruin would pitch a perfect game. 7-under through his first seven holes, the world No. 4 turned in 29 before tacking on three straight birdies on Nos. 11 through 13.
Needing to make birdie on three of his final five holes to join the illustrious 59 club, Cantlay was unable to and settled for a round of 10-under 62. Possessing the co-lead alongside Hodges, he has shortened to +200 at PointsBet Sportsbook, leapfrogging the pre-tournament favorite, Rahm, who is now listed at +450.
Cantlay and Rahm will take to the Nicklaus Tournament Course tomorrow before playing the Stadium Course the final two days. Some may be inclined to suggest others will be able to make up ground on the leader over the next couple of rounds, but outside of Rahm, I am not so sure – especially since most of the better players were on La Quinta CC today as well.
The duo has done some of their best work on Jack Nicklaus designs as both hold victories at Muirfield Village and battled it out in the 2020 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP at Sherwood Country Club. Throw in the fact Cantlay carded a weekend total of 126 last year at the Stadium Course and the rest of the field has a massive mountain to climb.
With tickets on Taylor Moore (-6) and Lee, we will hold out on any additional outright selections and if anything changes in the next 24 hours, so will our line of thinking. As for now, there is only one second-round head-to-head matchup we feel comfortable putting up.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds via PointsBet):
+200: Patrick Cantlay
+450: Jon Rahm
+1200: Seamus Power
+1600: K.H. Lee
+2500: Lee Hodges
+2800: Abraham Ancer
+3300: Russell Henley
+4000: Cameron Young, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Danny Lee, Joseph Bramlett, Taylor Moore
+5000: Greyson Sigg, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Tom Hoge
+6000: Brandt Snedeker
+6600: Davis Riley, Jason Day, Patton Kizzire, Sam Ryder
+8000: Brian Harman, Justin Rose, Lucas Glover, Si Woo Kim, Wyndham Clark
Round 2 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Jhonattan Vegas +105 over Emiliano Grillo (1.00 unit):
It was a disappointing first-round for Vegas, but there was plenty of good which came from it. Hitting three balls into the water, the Venezuelan turned in 3-over 39, but remained strong on the homeward half, eventually crawling back to even-par for the tournament.
Hitting 10-of-14 fairways and 14-of-18 greens in regulation, outside of a few loose swings, it was business as usual for the 37-year-old. With such high pre-tournament hopes for Vegas, I will stick with him for one more round as he played 16-holes in a 5-under fashion on Thursday.
Grillo’s iron-play did not appear to be as sharp as Vegas’ which is troubling considering it is typically his bread and butter. The Argentine looked off at the Sony Open and it seems to have carried over into this week. Never one to impress on the greens, I would not be shocked if these struggles continue on the more difficult Stadium Course tomorrow.
2/3-Balls YTD: +1.20 units, 14.46%
Overall YTD: +26.79 units, 155.60%
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