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A year removed from the theatrics of Bryson DeChambeau‘s drives and a Lee Westwood renaissance, the PGA Tour returns to the Orlando area. With 120 players set to get their Arnold Palmer Invitational underway this Thursday at Bay Hill Club and Lodge, we are dealt with less than a full field as this week marks one of three events to receive elevated status this season.
An appetizer for the Tour’s main dish that is The PLAYERS Championship next week, the lure of a larger purse and additional FedEx Cup points was unable to entice all of the game’s elite. Which is not to say we are without premier players at Bay Hill as world No. 1 Jon Rahm will be making his tournament debut.
Joining Ryder Cuppers Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, and Matthew Fitzpatrick and the field – while not what it will be at TPC Sawgrass – should make for a compelling tournament. McIlroy was accompanied by Corey Conners last season on the first-round leaderboard as both fired rounds of 6-under 66 to kick off their Arnold Palmer Invitationals.
A course where competent long iron play and strong Par-5 Scoring are a necessity, we will once again look to our outright selections for Thursday inspiration. While we have been in the business of weather forecasting, quite successfully I might add – the selections have been unsuccessful, but small victories people – there does not appear to be much of an advantage one way or another this Thursday.
With this being the case, we will split our allocation down the middle and assign equal shares to the morning and afternoon tee times. Needing to avoid those big names previously mentioned, we will turn to some familiar faces.
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Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+2000: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy
+2500: Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland
+3000: Matthew Fitzpatrick
+3500: Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Marc Leishman
+4000: Adam Scott, Paul Casey, Russell Henley, Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris
+5000: Billy Horschel, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jason Kokrak, Keith Mitchell, Maverick McNealy, Max Homa, Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood
To Lead After the First-Round:
Si Woo Kim +8000 at DraftKings (0.25 units):
About as fiery as they come, Kim’s play this week at the API could very well be my undoing. Cautiously optimistic it will not be, the string of success the South Korean has been able to put together in 2022 is very much going under the radar.
Perhaps it is his track record at Bay Hill – which is extremely off-putting, do not get me wrong – but let us side with the course history denialists for a brief moment. Ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee and top-40 in Greens in Regulation, Bogey Avoidance, and Par-5 Scoring over his last 24 rounds, Kim’s undoing on the west coast was simply his putter.
Losing strokes to the field in eight consecutive rounds now, the switch to Bermuda cannot hurt. Especially considering when the 26-year-old has posted positive SG: Putting numbers in 2022, he has signed for rounds of 65-68-69-67-70-71.
Martin Laird +10000 at PointsBet (0.20 units):
Another week and another write up for Martin Laird who is slowly, but surely bankrupting us. Begging, no pleading this will be the week he finally plays up to our expectations, the 2011 API Champion has made a living at Bay Hill throughout the years.
Ranking inside the top-30 in each tee-to-green metric over the last 24 rounds, as well as proximity from 200+ yards and Par-5 scoring, you can see why Laird is so tantalizing. Falling short on the greens, a return to a comfortable spot on the calendar should hopefully bring his putting stroke along.
While as a whole the west coast swing was ugly with the putter, there were some brief moments when Laird was more than competent. Gaining nearly five-strokes with the flat stick over the weekend at the WM Phoenix Open, a performance such as that will propel the Scotsman to the top of the Thursday leaderboard.
Taylor Pendrith +14000 at DraftKings (0.14 units):
The last of our outright selections to make a Round 1 appearance, Pendrith’s ball-striking makes him worth the investment at this price. 22nd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 10th in Greens in Regulation over his last 24 rounds, the big-hitting Canadian has been able to muster up some quality results.
While the scoring on par-5s has inexplicably eluded him, he has shown glimpses on Bermudagrass greens dating back to the RSM Classic. With performances of +1.8 +2.8, and +1.2 SG: Putting, the 30-year-old rookie appears capable of starting his API debut with a bang.
Danny Lee +14000 at DraftKings (0.14 units):
It was not all too long ago we looked Mr. Lee’s direction at the Bermuda Championship where at one point on the back-nine he became the live first-round favorite. Not meant to be, the former U.S. Amateur Champion eventually finished runner-up before capturing a top-10 result at the WWT Championship the following week.
Sputtering ever since, Lee found his footing at the Genesis Invitational, finishing in a tie for 21st on a course where he had typically struggled. The same cannot be said for Bay Hill as the 31-year-old finished in tie for fifth in 2020, adding to his API resume which featured a pair of top-20 results.
Top-25 in Proximity from 200+ yards and Par-5 scoring over his last 24 rounds, there is clear upside in Lee on Thursday. 10th in Birdies over this same time period, if he is able to use his new found distance for good in Round 1, he should be in the conversation.
Patton Kizzire +15000 at PointsBet (0.13 units):
Kizzire is typically a player I try to target on shorter courses such as Waialae Country Club or Colonial Country Club, but the need to club down at Bay Hill should play to his advantage. Known for the occasional wayward tee shot and subsequent “Shot 3 from the tee” there is plenty that could go wrong with this selection.
With that being said, there is also plenty of good which could occur. His tee-to-green numbers have been world class recently, posting +7.6 at The American Express and +9.3 at the WM Phoenix Open. Returning to his native SEC country, the Auburn product should thrive at Bay Hill as he is finally removed from Poa annua putting surfaces.
Posting scores of 63-67-71 in his three opening rounds out west not on Poa annua, Kizzire will happily step foot back on Bermudagrass. Top-20 in SG: Approach and Par-5 scoring and top-30 in Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds, the 35-year-old possesses the skillset we are looking for on Thursday.
Sean O’Hair +15000 at PointsBet (0.13 units):
O’Hair has been making a regular appearance in this article when he tees it up on the PGA Tour. It is not without good reason as the American posted a round of 69 in windy Bermuda and signed for a 67 at Pebble Beach. Splitting time between the PGA Tour and Korn Ferry Tour, O’Hair’s most recent outing came at the LECOM Suncoast Classic.
Finishing in a tie for sixth-place, the 39-year-old carded rounds of 67-66-68-68. With the entirety of his game looking solid when he is granted the opportunity to play on golf’s biggest stage, I envision O’Hair enjoying yet another great showing at Bay Hill, hopefully starting on Thursday.
First-Round Leaders YTD: -7.74 units, -100.00%
Total YTD: +62.20 units, +102.77%
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