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Much like a criminal, it is not often the PGA Tour agreeingly takes the back seat, but this week it will. With 21 of the top-50 players in the world set to play in Saudi Arabia, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am’s fate rests on the shoulders of Clint Eastwood and the possibility of a return to the broadcast booth after a memorable appearance in 2020.
In total, it will be eight different golf courses in three weeks for those who have chosen to participate in the entirety of the California swing thus far. Much like The American Express, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am dialed things back in 2021, utilizing only two golf courses and getting rid of the Pro-Am portion of the event.
For better or for worse, Monterey Peninsula’s Shore Course and celebrities will return this year much to the delight of Billy Murray, Larry the Cable Guy, and the rest of the Monterey five. They will be given 54-holes spread across Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill, and the aforementioned Monterey Peninsula before a cut is made Saturday evening.
Each measuring about 7,000 yards, Monterey Peninsula is the lone course to play to a par-71 as the other two play to a par-72. However, the name of the game is similar on all three, get the ball in the fairway, dial in those wedge shots – as roughly 20% of approach shots will come from 100 to 125 yards – and see who can make the most putts.
Between Jordan Spieth’s (+1800) caddie, Michael Greller, climbing into a tree for Tom Hoge’s (+6000) ball, Francesco Molinari’s topped tee-shot, and Nate Lashley’s (+20000) outburst on the 16th-green, last season’s event had just about everything. In the end it was Daniel Berger (+1200) who came away as the winner, cementing his victory with an eagle-3 on the par-5 18th after Maverick McNealy (+2500) applied some late pressure via the most aggressive club twirl in the modern era.
Despite the oddities of last year, this event has gradually lost a bit of shimmer since the Bing Crosby clambake days and this time around is no different. With outgoing personalities such as Patrick Cantlay (+700), the tournament-favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook, and defending champion, Berger, headlining, the potential for an unassuming victor is high.
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Will Zalatoris (+1600), Jason Day (+1800), Justin Rose (+2200), and McNealy have all seen their odds drop substantially compared to last week. Between a much weaker field at Pebble Beach and their strong play at Torrey Pines, this was to be expected. Not in love with their prices, nor those in the +3000 to +4000 range, we will once again begin our selections farther down the odds board.
There is slight disagreement in the market pertaining to Lanto Griffin (+5500) as he is listed as low as +3300 at some shops. Having always had a soft spot for the Blacksburg, Virginia native, it has been surprising to see Griffin’s affinity for California golf grow throughout his career.
Carding a final round 7-under 65, a top-30 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open was the latest addition to his Golden State resume as he also finished on the podium at The American Express. However, it has not just been his play in recent weeks which has left a mark, but rather the season as a whole.
Now 7-for-8 on weekend appearances in the 2021-22 season, Griffin also collected top-10 results at the Shriners Children’s Open and the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP before the turn of the calendar. Exquisite from tee-to-green, the small greens of Pebble Beach should be to his liking as his iron-play has been razor sharp, with an uptick from 100 to 125 yards.
Ranking 21st in Driving Accuracy at Torrey Pines, this is a welcomed sight for Griffin as he has been known to be wild off-the-tee. If able to carry this up the coast of California, he should be able to put together a solid week similar to 2020 when he finished in a tie for ninth.
Course history is a subject which tends to divide rather than unite the golf internet. I find myself somewhere in the middle, balancing the tight rope, but one player always worthy of consideration when the Tour heads to Pebble Beach is Kevin Streelman (+5500). Behind the lenses of his bulky sunglasses, the Duke product impressed in Palm Springs before the rest of his game got caught up to speed last week at Torrey Pines.
Eventually finishing in a tie for 39th, Streelman ranked 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green by way of 27th SG: Off-the-Tee, 18th in SG: Approach, and 22nd in SG: Around-the-Green. Inside the top-15 in Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, and Scrambling as well, it appears Streelman is a cooperative putting week away from a title run.
History suggests Pebble Beach is the ideal venue for this dash towards contention as it is a much better fit for a player with Streelman’s skillset. A top-5 wedge player in this field, the 43-year-old has notched six consecutive top-20 finishes since 2016. With those results reading 17th-14th-6th-7th-2nd-13th, it is hard for me to ignore what Streelman has been able to accomplish at Pebble Beach.
Aaron Rai (+6000) and Russell Knox (+6000) provided plenty of intrigue as we continued to saunter through the mid-range on the odds board. However, a player I have been keen on returning to the winner’s circle this season is Matt Kuchar (+6600).
Never one to compete at long, overbearing venues, the 7,000 yards of the three golf courses should be right up his alley. Now 5-for-5 this season making the cut, the last we saw of the 43-year-old was in Honolulu, where at Waialae Country Club – a course which possesses some parallels to Pebble Beach – he finished in a tie for seventh.
Doing some of his best work at the likes of Harbour Town Golf Links, TPC Sawgrass, and El Camaleon Golf Course, this is one of those weeks where Kuchar’s seemingly poor off-the-tee and approach figures dissipate. Hindered due to his lack of length off-the-tee, the consistency in which he finds fairways will serve him well.
Setting him up on approach, Kuchar’s week will be told by his mid-to-long irons. Fantastic with a wedge in hand whether from the short-grass or from around-the-green, there will be moments where Kuchar’s iron-play will simply need to step up. If it does, he should have a chance come Sunday and if it does not, well, there can only be one winner when all is said and done.
There are numerous players who fit the Streelman, Kuchar mold and having bet on him at the Sony Open, it only feels right going back to the well with Joel Dahmen (+9000). A late bloomer for PGA Tour standards, Dahmen has struggled to begin 2022.
Missing two consecutive cuts now, I will not be putting too much stock in the 34-year-old’s performance last week at Torrey Pines. Always a tough ask, his prior start at Waialae CC saw him not only devour hot dogs, but also miss out on the weekend, despite his tee-to-green prowess being well apparent.
Making absolutely nothing on the Bermuda grass of Hawaii, admittingly I was surprised given how he finished 2021 with the putter in hand. It is not as if these troubles will disappear at Pebble Beach, in fact he has lost strokes to the field on the greens in three of four showings, but it is a risk I am willing to take.
The very definition of a “plodder,” Dahmen thrives in two areas of the game, finding fairways and hitting wedge shots close. Both of those alone have the potential to propel a player to a strong showing in Monterey. Despite unable to find his touch on and around-the-greens, Dahmen is a perfect 4-for-4 on weekend appearances with his best result coming in 2020 when he finished in a tie for 14th. A former winner on a coastal course, if Dahmen’s short-game shows up, his name should show up on the first page of the leaderboard.
Absent from our discussion thus far has been the 2019 U.S. Open. While some may utilize this championship for Rose’s prospects, I will instead look to a fellow third-place finisher in Chez Reavie (+12500).
In what has been a peculiar start to 2022, Reavie withdrew before the Sony Open – likely not wanting to make the voyage to Hawaii – before missing the cut at The American Express. Finishing in a tie for 70th at Torrey Pines, on the surface there is a not a lot to love about the current state of Reavie’s game.
However, in La Jolla, the 40-year-old flashed some form in two aspects of his game – Driving Accuracy and Scrambling. Inside the top-10 in both of these categories for the tournament, this should allow Reavie an angle in for success at Pebble Beach.
Known for his accuracy, the uptick in his short-game is the main cause for excitement – that is if Reavie even needs it. Ranking sixth in the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, it is no surprise the Arizona Diamondback super fan has taken to Pebble Beach in the past.
Featuring the smallest greens on Tour, Reavie has collected five straight top-40 results on the coast of California including his U.S. Open effort. With a runner-up at the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am being one of these finishes, I am comfortable in suggesting Reavie can do one better this year.
While those at the top will be difficult to skirt past, we have seen our fair share of longshots come through at this tournament. Nick Taylor (+9000), Ted Potter, Jr. (+30000), and Vaughn Taylor (+15000) (no relation to Nick) have all been victorious in recent memory.
Known to pluck a Korn Ferry Tour graduate and place him on the card every now and then, I instead sided with a veteran in James Hahn (+27000). Perhaps taking a page out of our Hudson Swafford playbook, the ability to win is an ability rarely forgotten.
Willing to miss out on a potential first-time winner, Hahn is not only a player with two PGA Tour victories to his credit, but two rather big PGA Tour victories. With one coming at Riviera, Hahn has continued his love affair with California golf this season.
In his four measured rounds across three tournaments, the 40-year-old has averaged +1.89 SG: Tee-to-Green. The latest of these performances came last week at Torrey Pines South where he signed for a round of 2-under 70, ranking inside the top-10 in SG: Tee-to-Green for the day.
It is lost on me why he has not had more success in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as it seems to be an event perfect for him. Accurate off-the-tee and with his game firing on all cylinders, the lack of history or recent results will not deter me off Hahn at this number.
Outright Selections:
Lanto Griffin +5500 at DraftKings (0.60 units)
Kevin Streelman +5500 at BetRivers (0.60 units)
Matt Kuchar +6600 at BetMGM (0.50 units)
Joel Dahmen +9000 at DraftKings (0.37 units)
Chez Reavie +12500 at BetRivers (0.26 units)
James Hahn +27000 at FanDuel (0.12 units)
Outrights YTD: +56.35 units, +499.31%
Total YTD: +50.55 units, +164.09%
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