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While most eyes will turn to Memphis for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, ours will head west to Truckee, California for the 2021 Barracuda Championship. Taking place at the Old Greenwood Course at Tahoe Mountain Club, players teeing it up this week in the Sierra Nevada mountains have plenty to play for as the end of the PGA Tour season draws near.
There is more than enough at stake this week, as 300 FedEx Cup points and a two-year exemption will be awarded to the eventual winner. With only the Wyndham Championship remaining after completion of play this week, the FedEx Cup Playoffs loom large with every point counting as The Northern Trust approaches.
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Playing host for only the second time ever, the Old Greenwood Course provided a dramatic setting in its debut last season. A par-71, this Jack Nicklaus design can stretch over 7,400 yards and sits more than 6,000 feet above sea level.
With the ball flying mind-boggling distances, three of the par-4’s become drivable to go along with the three par-5’s. In essence, par breakers (birdies and eagles) will be needed, especially when you consider the scoring format for the week.
This won’t be your standard PGA Tour stop. Having been played since 1999, the tournament formerly known as the Reno-Tahoe Open looked to the Modified Stableford format in 2012 to spice things up. As such, your standard stroke-play event will be nowhere to be seen as the scoring for the Barracuda Championship can be seen below. Unlike your usual event, this week, the higher the score, the better.
Modified Stableford Scoring:
+8: Double Eagle
+5: Eagle
+2: Birdie
0: Par
-1: Bogey
-3: Double Bogey or more
With scoring that rewards eagles and birdies and isn’t necessarily as penal to the occasional bogey and double bogey, aggressive players tend to thrive in this format. A go for broke mentality is typically needed when playing in Modified Stableford as evidenced by Richy Werenski’s victory last season when he racked up 39 points.
While data is limited and course history is lacking with only one year of play at Old Greenwood, we have to get creative with our analysis. However, when sifting through the 2020 leaderboard, there were a few names that caught my attention. Along with Werenski, Alex Noren and Emiliano Grillo found themselves inside the top-10 by the end of the week. Each of them enjoyed a strong outing at the 3M Open the week before in Minnesota and could be an avenue through which we find some correlation.
In unison with the standard tee-to-green metrics, birdie making and bogey avoiding will play a large factor in our analysis. Grillo ranked second and Werenski was fourth in birdies in the 2020 3M Open and appeared to carry those abilities over to California. Noren wasn’t near the top in par breakers, but was first in bogey avoidance and double-bogey avoidance, thus illustrating its importance.
However, what I found most intriguing was their putting performances at TPC Twin Cities. Werenski posted +7.0 Strokes Gained: Putting and Noren was close behind at +6.9 SG: Putting, good for second and third in the field. Grillo gained nearly two-strokes on the greens, and while that may not appear to be great, it’s rather good for someone like Grillo.
The odds makers at PointsBet Sportsbook are keen to the potential love affair brewing between Grillo and Modified Stableford. Listed as one of the favorites, the Argentine sits at +1800 on the odds board alongside Branden Grace and Mito Pereira, trailing only Maverick McNealy who is +1600 to capture his first PGA Tour title.
To Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
Ryan Armour (+4000 to win):
The 3M Open hypothesis will be tested early and often in our selections. As such, Armour is the man we’ll start our card with as Gary Woodland’s number was a bit too short for my liking. Armour tends to thrive in these alternate, weaker field events, and based on his current state of play he should factor in this tournament.
Finding his way into the top-10 in three of his last six starts, Armour has been on a roll as of late. A top-5 finish at the Barbasol Championship was followed up with a tie for sixth at the 3M Open in his last outing. At first glance it appears that his irons abandoned him in Minnesota, but it was really just the third round that was his undoing. The rest of his game looks strong, especially his putting, having posted +6.4 SG: Putting at TPC Twin Cities.
At 117th in the FedEx Cup standings, a strong performance this week would go a long way to locking up Armour’s spot in The Northern Trust. While he does have a strong history at the Wyndham Championship, the former Ohio State Buckeye would like nothing more than to secure his status a week early.
Pat Perez (+4000 to win):
The up-and-down streak that Perez is currently on does not bode well for his prospects at the Barracuda Championship. With three top-15 finishes in his last six starts, Perez has alternated quality outings and missed cuts on a weekly basis for the last two months. However, I believe this oddity will come to an end this week as Perez captured a top-20 finish last season in Old Greenwood’s debut.
A threat due to his putting prowess, Perez’s iron-play has slowly started to turn the corner. More often than not, he is posting positive results with those clubs, having gained strokes on the field in three straight tournaments. Now, the driver appears to cooperating as well as Perez has posted positive strokes gained figures from off-the-tee in six straight rounds.
If he can just get past his chipping woes, then Perez should be in the weekend mix. However, if he can’t, I still have some confidence in his putter carrying the load. A dangerous proposition, but one that Perez can fulfill. He’s posted +4.4 SG: Putting and +8.7 SG: Putting in two of his last three starts. Those performances are becoming the norm for Perez and hopefully something similar is in store this week.
Sam Ryder (+6000 to win):
Victim of the water at TPC Twin Cities, Ryder’s strokes gained numbers are a bit misleading. He found the penalty areas with regularity in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and hopefully got it all out of his system ahead of the Barracuda Championship.
Despite losing nearly four-strokes on approach, I am alright looking past such a performance, as the rest of his game appears in sort. He recently gained +12.6 SG: Tee-to-Green at the Barbasol Championship, 11.1 of which were with his irons. While he putted poorly in Kentucky, the same can’t be said for Minnesota as he gained six-strokes on the greens at the 3M Open.
Having finished in a tie for 21st a year ago, Ryder is clearly comfortable in this setting and format. All aspects of his game have flashed over the last couple of weeks and at this number, I’m willing to wager he’ll finally get the whole bag to cooperate for a full week.
Longshots + Top-Finishers (Odds Via PointsBet):
Austin Eckroat (+8000 to win, +700 to finish inside the top-10):
The last five winners of the Barracuda Championship have all taken the form of a first-time winner. While Davis Thompson and Sahith Theegala make for quality candidates to follow in the footsteps of 2019 champion, Collin Morikawa, it is Eckroat who I believe provides the most upside.
The former Oklahoma State standout has found his footing on the PGA Tour and finally put together a quality outing at the 3M Open. En route to a top-20 finish, Eckroat posted +5.2 SG: Approach and +4.6 SG: Putting. A deadly combination, if Eckroat is able to consistently hit fairways at Old Greenwood, the rest of his game should hold steady.
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Luke Donald (+15000 to win, +1100 to finish inside the top-10):
Don’t look now, but the former world No. 1 appears to have discovered his iron-play. Posting +6.4 SG: Approach at TPC Twin Cities, Donald found himself with his second top-20 finish of the 2021 calendar year.
While the driver has been poor, like really poor, having lost strokes to the field in every start since the 2020 RSM Classic, the putter is on the verge of peaking. Once one of the best players in the world on the greens, Donald may have regained a semblance of that form.
With positive outings on the greens in five of his last six starts, the Englishman looks to be returning to his former self. While it would be a tall order to ask Donald to be competent off-the-tee, he can certainly improve on his performance in Minnesota where he lost more than five-strokes in said category. If he is able to do so, then he could be a factor in this Modified Stableford format.
Nick Watney (+20000 to win, +1800 to finish inside the top-10):
With little faith in the top of the board, much of our wagering was done towards the bottom in hopes of a big payday. The furthest down we’ll go is Watney who has quietly been surging. After missing 18 consecutive cuts, the five-time winner on the PGA Tour has now connected on weekend play in three straight outings.
On the shoulders of strong iron-play, the former top-10 player in the world may be onto something. A top-50 finish at the John Deere Classic broke the missed cut streak and has since been followed up with a T-37 at the Barbasol Championship and a T-34 at the 3M Open. Having gained six-strokes on approach in his last start in Minnesota, I figure it’s worth a small investment to see if can keep this new trend going at the Barracuda Championship.
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