The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
There are dueling storylines heading into the weekend of the BMW PGA Championship. While Kiradech Aphibarnrat was able to hold onto his first-round lead and now in fact possesses it by himself, the Ryder Cup looms large for our European counterparts.
With numerous variations in play due to their ranking system being a combination of world points and European points, Bernd Wiesberger is the man of the hour. On the outside looking in coming into the week, the Austrian finished strong on Friday, solidifying his spot in the weekend at Wentworth and possibly on the European squad at Whistling Straits.
[[ad:athena]]
As it currently stands with 36-holes to go, Wiesberger would automatically qualify for the team as a captain’s selection seems far-fetched for the eight-time European Tour winner. Knocking potential rookie Shane Lowry down a notch could inadvertently drop Lee Westwood as well. This would leave Captain Padraig Harrington in a major pickle come completion of the BMW PGA Championship.
Unlike the Americans, the European side only has three captain’s selections to play with, two of which have all but been confirmed. In June, Harrington essentially guaranteed Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter spots on the team, and given their seasons, there are no reasons to suspect he will go back on his word – despite Poulter missing the cut this afternoon.
With Lowry or Westwood now potentially requiring Harrington’s blessings and folding an in-form Justin Rose into the mix, it is easy to see the predicament Europe is in given Wiesberger automatically qualifies. Sure, Lowry, Rose, Westwood and even Victor Perez still have an opportunity to qualify on their own, but the waters have clearly been muddied for the European side.
I won’t speculate on who I believe will make the final cut for the European Team as I have already done so and will likely be proven incorrect having had Robert MacIntyre on the roster. While he won’t have the opportunity to tee it up at Whistling Straits, there are still a number of his European counterparts that believe they will and are worth following this weekend.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium DFS and Betting Golf Tools that are packed with a DFS Optimizer, DFS Projections, Salary Tracker, Edge Driver, Prop Projections, Futures and much more. Gain access to both tools in our EDGE+Max tier and don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Round 3 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
Mikko Korhonen (+475 to finish inside the top-10):
I fancied the Finn’s chances coming into the week as he had been playing some beautiful golf as of late. Sitting six-strokes behind Aphibarnrat at the halfway point, my optimism has not wavered. Playing devil’s advocate for a moment, one has to be skeptical of not only Aphibarnrat, but also Canter given his inability to close in the past.
Let’s say for the moment the true lead lies at 11-under, possibly even 10-under with Scott. If it were to play out this way, it leaves Korhonen only four-strokes adrift at the moment, which over the course of 36-holes is not a ton of ground to make up.
24th in par-4 scoring and seventh in par-5 scoring, he’s on the correct trajectory when it comes to replicating what previous winners have done at Wentworth. Having taken advantage of those holes, the majority at Wentworth, as one would expect, he has been excellent tee-to-green.
Gaining strokes in each tee-to-green metric to this point, Korhonen appeared to have found his ball-striking on Friday. Ranking third in Stroke Gained: Around-the-Green and eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green, if that sort of form continues into the weekend, he should be able to give himself plenty of looks for par-breakers.
Converting nine birdies and an eagle thus far, he’s made too many mistakes for my liking. However, there is reason to believe this will turn around given his season averages. Fourth in bogeys per round and 31st in SG: Putting on the European Tour, regression to the mean in those two areas will be vital for his weekend chances. While I can stomach the occasional slip up, it is the flat-stick that will need to make a big leap as he sits 114th in SG: Putting through two rounds.
Still waiting on PointsBet to release their updated odds, I’ll also be taking a nibble on Korhonen to get the job done in the outright department as I am seeing triple-digits at other books.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
