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At one point in the third round, Francesco Laporta had not only grasped the solo lead, but had extended it to three-strokes. After an eagle on the par-5 4th hole, the Italian, who secured his playing privileges for next season just last week in his home country’s Open, appeared to be well on his way to securing a comfortable lead heading into Sunday.
Yet a bogey on the par-4 7th and only two birdies coming home were not enough to accomplish such. Instead, home country favorite, Laurie Canter cut into his lead. One-stroke behind Kiradech Aphibarnrat coming into the weekend, the Englishman holds the same position with only 18-holes to play, albeit needing to track down a different man.
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With Laporta at 14-under and Canter at 13-under, there is a possibility that someone from the chasing pack can capitalize on possible nerves. Neither have been able to capture a European Tour title to date and in one of the biggest events of the year, the mountain becomes all the steeper.
Those at 12-under and 11-under respectively present the greatest threat to the duo. The odds makers at PointsBet Sportsbook are keen to such a possibility unfolding as Adam Scott and Billy Horschel sit atop the odds board next to Laporta at +550 despite being two-strokes behind the Italian.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+550: Adam Scott, Billy Horschel, Francesco Laporta
+650: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
+700: Laurie Canter
+900: Shane Lowry
+1400: Bernd Wiesberger, Jamie Donaldson
+2200: Sean Crocker
+5000: Justin Rose, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Nicolai Hojgaard, Tommy Fleetwood
Round 4 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Justin Rose (+5000 to win):
Say the final group does stall or potentially stumble on the tricky opening three-hole stretch at Wentworth. That leaves this tournament wide open and not only to those at the 11 and 12-under numbers like I previously said. While it is dependent on what the two at the top do, I am willing to venture down to 9-under given the way Rose has played thus far.
Yes, the tee-to-green play appeared to abandon him on Saturday as he tumbled down the leaderboard. However, lost in his third round of even-par 72 was the way that Rose performed on the greens. Posting +1.26 Strokes Gained: Putting, I am confident that the Ryder Cup hopeful will give himself plenty of birdie-looks come tomorrow.
Eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green on Thursday and seventh in the same category on Friday, I have good reason to believe Saturday’s performance of –2.28 SG: Tee-to-Green was just a blip on the radar. With plenty to play for, more than just a Rolex Series victory, Rose should put his best foot forward and propel himself into contention come the back-nine.
Thomas Pieters (+8000 to win):
Accompanying Rose at 9-under is the long-hitting Belgian, Pieters. Like the Englishman, the four-time winner on the European Tour regressed tee-to-green in the third round. Outdoing the other man in this article the first two rounds, Pieters had posted +9.18 SG: Tee-to-Green coming into the weekend.
However en route to a round of 1-under 71, Pieters ranked 60th in the category. An uncharacteristic performance, the 2016 Ryder Cup team member put together his best putting performance of the BMW PGA Championship to keep his tournament hopes alive.
Gaining more than 1.5 strokes with the flat sick, if such a performance is present tomorrow at Wentworth, Pieters should like his chances to chase down the leaders. Likely needing something in the mid-to-low 60’s if Pieters plays the par-4’s in a similar manner to his round on Friday, he has an outside chance to come out on top.
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